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Nick Gerli

@nickgerli1162k followers

CEO of Reventure App. Home price forecasts and fair value for every U.S. ZIP code. For media and interviews, e-mail info@reventure.app

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1Jun 27, '23The Airbnb collapse is real. Revenues are down nearly 50% in cities like Phoenix and Austin. Watch out for a wave of forced selling from Airbnb owners later this year in the areas 400×35.6M46k8.7k9.5k
2May 22, '23Mortgage rates back to 7%. Meaning that the cost to buy a house in America is now approaching $2,700/month when including mortgage, tax, insurance, and maintenance. Meanwhile, cost61.8×5.5M19k4.6k3.4k
3Oct 21, '23Wall Street Investors are beginning to sell their houses. This listing in Phoenix was bought by a private equity fund in 2022 at the peak of the bubble. Now they're listing at an 153.2×4.7M17k2.2k2.5k
4May 1, '25I don't think people understand what's happening in housing market right now. Florida now has 177,00 listings. Highest level on record. Entire Northeast U.S. has 79,000 listings. L41.3×3.7M19k3.1k5.5k
5Jan 17, '23This is scary. 😬 KB Homes, a large home builder, just reported a 68% CANCEL RATE. Meaning that over 2/3 of Homebuyers walked away from their contracts in the quarter. Leaving KB H38.1×3.4M13k3.2k1.9k
6Mar 8, '23WARNING: the Money Supply is officially contracting. 📉 This has only happened 4 previous times in last 150 years. Each time a Depression with double-digit unemployment rates follo36.1×3.2M14k4.5k3.6k
7Jul 8, '24A massive housing bubble has developed, and is about to pop, in the South. The number of new homes for sale in the Southern Region (FL, GA, TN, TX, etc.) has spiked up to nearly 3035.4×3.2M9.1k2k4.3k
8Aug 26, '24A friendly reminder that we are in the biggest housing bubble of all-time. Inflation-adjusted home prices today are almost 100% higher than the long-term, 130-year average. Only 2x30.8×2.7M8.9k1.6k5.1k
9May 31, '23Wall Street Investors have officially abandoned the Housing Market. With Redfin reporting a colossal 49% crash in investor purchases in Q1 2023. This is the biggest annual decline 30.2×2.7M7.5k1.8k1.7k
10Apr 25, '23Money Supply contracts again in March. 📉 This is a massive economic warning. Money Supply contraction hasn't happened in 90 years. Only other times it has happened we had Depressi30×2.7M8.1k2.6k1.6k
11May 15, '25The housing market has never been this unaffordable in U.S. history. With inflation-adjusted home prices setting a record over the last three years. We're now in the biggest housin29.3×2.6M17k2.3k6.1k
12Sep 24, '24Big boy price cut in Florida. Original List: $525,000 Current Price: $295,000 42% reduction. Back to 2015 Zestimate levels. Watch out as these listings make their way into comps as26.8×2.4M11k1.3k2.8k
13Feb 22, '23Mortgage Applications to buy a house just collapsed to an index level of 147.📉 That's the lowest level of buyer demand in 28 YEARS. Lower than anything we saw in the 2008 Crash. D25.8×2.3M8.9k2.5k1.3k
14Jul 21, '23Is another Mortgage Crisis brewing? Homebuyer Debt-to-Income Ratios (DTIs) are now approaching 40% in the beginning of 2023. That means homebuyers are now spending 40% of their gro24.8×2.2M6.8k1.7k1.7k
15May 24, '24The Austin, TX housing downturn keeps getting worse. Inventory of homes for sale just surged +442% over the last two years. Up to almost 9,000 houses on the market. That's the high24.5×2.2M2.1k269878
16Nov 14, '24The Austin, TX rental market is collapsing before our eyes. With the median apartment rent dropping 15% over the last 2+ years. The vacancies have skyrocketed. Rental concessions a22.3×2M6.2k9292.1k
18Sep 20, '23We're in the biggest Housing Bubble ever in 2023. Home prices, adjusted for inflation, are 85% overvalued compared to their 130-year average. The only other time the overvaluation 18.8×1.7M7.1k1.5k1.8k
19Aug 18, '25For the first time ever, it is considerably cheaper to buy a new house than to buy an existing house. Likely signals an inflection point in the housing market.18.4×1.6M6.5k6781.7k
20Apr 21, '23The fundamental problem in today's Housing Market is simple: Home Prices are growing way faster than Incomes. Real Home Prices up +102% since 1970. Real Incomes only up +26%. Somet17.4×1.6M6.1k1.6k1.8k
21Mar 15, '23Investors are freaking out right now. 😬 US Treasury Yields plummet an insane 80bps the last two days. 📉 Biggest drop in yield since 1987 Flash Crash. Bigger than what happened af17×1.5M4.9k1.5k839
22Jan 10, '23The Savings Rate just collapsed down to 2.2%, the lowest level ever. 📉 Means Americans are running out of money. Last time it was this low was 2006-07. Right before GFC. Major Rec16.9×1.5M6.7k2k820
23Apr 7, '23Americans can't afford their mortgages. Debt to Income Ratio on FHA mortgages hit 44% in 2022.📈 Highest % ever. Even higher than 2007-08 Bubble. Lots of defaults / foreclosures co15.5×1.4M4.9k1.6k905
24Apr 2, '23US Banks lost nearly $400 Billion in deposits in March.❌ Biggest monthly loss in deposits in US History. This data shows the gravity of the Banking Crisis. And why the Govt acted s14.4×1.3M4k1.2k590
25Apr 24, '24The US Mortgage Market is crashing. Hard. With Mortgage Applications to buy a house plummeting -14% from last year. And now languishing at their lowest level since 1995. The housin13.7×1.2M4.4k9401.1k
26Jun 21, '24The downturn in Austin, TXs housing market is remarkable. Inventory has now spiked to the highest level on record. More than 25% higher than the previous, pre-pandemic high. And th13.5×1.2M2.2k303669
27Mar 29, '23Apartment builders are going crazy right now.😬 1.1 Million apartment units currently in construction/permitting. 60% higher than pre-pandemic. Double peak set in 2007 Bubble. Bad 13.3×1.2M3.9k798922
28Aug 12, '24Condo prices in Florida are collapsing. Seller has cut price $472k on this listing. 40% reduction from original list. Down to a price below what they bought it for in 2020, before 13.1×1.2M3.3k467969
29Mar 18, '25People are fleeing Austin, TX in droves. The city lost -13,500 people to outbound migration in 2024. The biggest drop the city has ever experienced. This outmigration has now cause12.1×1.1M5.1k6361.1k
30Mar 13, '23When the Money Supply Contracts📉, banks start collapsing.❌ This trend is very predictable. Each time the money supply has contracted in last 150 years, we've had a banking crisis.12×1.1M4k1.2k766
31May 30, '25Florida investor bought for $550k in 2022. Just sold it for $391k. 28% loss in 3 years. Market turning down fast.11.6×1M8.6k9461.1k
32Dec 26, '22VACANT Rentals are piling up on the US Housing Market.😬 Like this one in Las Vegas. 📉10% Rent Cut. No takers. Been sitting empty for 4 Months.11.2×1M3.1k364258
33Jan 15, '24The Austin, TX Housing Market is turning into a bloodbath. Home Values already down -16% from their peak in mid-2022. 📉 Warning signal to rest of US Housing Market. Once inventory11.2×995k2.2k321433
34Dec 24, '22Where Americans moved in 2022. 📈Florida: +319k 📈Texas: +231k 📉New York: -300k 📉California: -343k This was part of a broader trend of Americans moving South. Read more below...11.1×993k3.8k733353
35Dec 31, '22There's too many Realtors. 1.6 Million currently registered with NAR. That's higher than 2007 Bubble. 📉30% of Realtors will likely quit during this Housing Crash. Once that happen10.9×974k4.8k851671
36Dec 19, '22📉The Demographic Decline of America. For first time EVER, there's more People Living Alone (37.9M) than Households with a Child (33.9M) BAD NEWS for future of Society and Housing 10.9×968k4.3k1.2k595
37Sep 4, '25Mortgage applications are down 34% from pre-pandemic levels. And is even worse than 2008.10.7×955k16k2.6k1.9k
38Jul 10, '23The commercial real estate crash is happening.📉 Values for office, retail, and apartment buildings are already down -11%. Morgan Stanley thinks values could crash -40% when all is10.5×933k3.3k809683
40Aug 25, '23Mortgage applications just plummeted to the lowest level since 1995. 📉 Down 50% from pandemic highs. Not good. Sellers will need to reduce the price to bring buyers back in.9.3×830k3.7k858476
41Sep 23, '24Buying a rental property in America is no longer profitable. Because the current mortgage rate (6.1%) is significantly higher than the profit/cap rate (4.4%) of rentals. This means9.1×814k5.3k9142.5k
42Nov 12, '23Wall Street investors continue to sell their houses. Often with big price cuts. This listing outside Houston comes from AmericanHomes4Rent. They've cut the price by -12% to $215,009.0×805k2.3k329420
43Jan 31, '23Home Builders reporting 40% CRASH in Sales. 📉 Yet their stock prices are increasing. Near all-time highs. Might be the biggest Stock Bubble out there right now. Check this out...8.4×751k2.9k531400
44Feb 24, '231-Yr US Treasury now pays 5%. 📈 More than 3x higher than the dividend yield on the S&P 500. Makes it likely that stocks will crash at some point in 2023. As cash flow-driven, 8.4×750k3.3k773583
45Sep 26, '24A problem is developing in the Housing Market: Homebuyers are not responding to lower mortgage rates.❌ Mortgage apps (to purchase) still down 57% from pandemic peak. And 43% from p8.3×738k2.8k473860
46Dec 26, '24Rarely has buying a home been this expensive in America. The only other two times with historical precedence are 1981 and 2006. In 1981 mortgage rates were 18%. In 2006 we were abo8.1×720k3.3k6241.1k
48Jan 30, '25Blackstone just sold this house in Florida at a $130k loss. They bought it at peak of bubble in 2022 to rent it out. But renting it was harder than expected. So they liquidated the7.9×706k4.8k538986
49Apr 20, '23DR Horton sales order backlog just fell by 44% YoY. 📉 2022 Q2: $13.3 Billion 2023 Q2: $7.4 Billion That type of drop is comparable to what occurred from 2006 to 2007 in the beginn7.9×703k2.2k536344
50Jul 24, '24Home builders now have 102,000 completed, unsold homes sitting on their builder lots. This is the highest level since 2009. Indicating a huge ramp up in supply that is likely to ge7.8×699k2.7k564991
51Nov 13, '23Wall Street investor selling house outside of Dallas. Zestimate has tanked by 28% from its peak in mid-2022. The current list price is almost back to where it was before the pandem7.7×688k2.9k369464
52Mar 25, '24New home prices have collapsed by 20% from peak. 📉 With the median sale price of a new house dropping from $497k in mid-2022 to barely over $400k today. Much faster decline than w7.6×675k2.9k609914
53Nov 20, '24Mortgage demand is down 50% from the same week in 2019. No post-election bounce. Sellers better start cutting prices or else it's going to be a long winter.7.5×669k3.9k614725
54Aug 19, '25Historical cost of Buying v Renting. This explains everything about the current housing market.7.2×639k5.3k9012.4k
55Jul 15, '24The inventory spike in Texas/Florida right now is breathtaking. Active listings in these two states up to 249,000. The highest level in the last 7 years. And they continue to go up7.1×630k2.2k431667
56Apr 13, '24The US Mortgage collapse just got worse. Demand to buy homes with a mortgage plummeted to -43% below pre-pandemic levels in March 2024. Finishing with the lowest demand for any Mar7.0×624k2.6k608685
57Mar 30, '23Mortgage Applications to Buy a House just dropped 39% YoY in March. That was the worst March performance since 1995. Difficult to see how a "recovery" in Housing is occurring with 7.0×621k2.5k661284
58May 19, '23Realtors are officially quitting. The growth rate in Realtors registered with the NAR officially went negative in May 2023. That's the first contraction in the # of Realtors in Ame7.0×620k2.6k649355
59Jan 13, '25Homebuyer demand has plummeted to the lowest level in 30 years. With mortgage applications to purchase down 63% from the pandemic peak. The last time we saw demand this low, it was6.9×613k4.6k7581.1k
60Apr 19, '25The collapse in demand in Miami's housing market is breathtaking. Sales are down 50% from pandemic peak, and are 30% below the long-term average for March. There's a narrative buil6.7×601k3k466725
61Sep 21, '24Blackstone taking a $75,000 loss on a house they bought in 2022. Original purchase: $490k Current List Price: $415k 15% haircut in two years. Probably not a good sign for home valu6.6×584k3.7k467571
62Mar 16, '232023 is already the worst year of Bank Runs in US History measured by deposits held by failing banks. SVB & Signature had $263B in deposits combined. Already more than the depo6.5×581k2.4k813322
63Sep 25, '24Investor horror story in Florida. Bought this house in 2023 for $325,000. Thought they could rent it out for $3,800/month. Have since cut rent to $2,500/month. Still sitting vacant6.3×558k3.2k384675
64Sep 12, '24Mortgage rates are dropping. And homebuyers don't care. 30-year fixed down to 6.20%. And mortgage apps continue to drag at multi-decade lows. Sellers will soon realize that high pr6.3×558k3.5k506635
65Jan 27, '25Probably my favorite housing market graph right now. Orange line is inventory levels in Florida & Texas, combined. Blue line is inventory level across entire Northeast US. In Texas5.9×526k3.3k5261.4k
66May 20, '25Zillow just reported monthly home value drops in 27/50 states. This is no longer just a Texas/Florida downturn.5.7×506k3.2k463599
68Jul 2, '25The reason no one is buying houses right now is because U.S. housing market affordability is literally at the worst level in the past 35 years. Today, an American making median inc5.2×462k3.4k663936
70May 24, '25Shades of 2008 playing out in Florida right now. In this case, the seller bought from a builder for $317k in 2023. But have since had to cut the price to $265k because the builder 5.1×451k2.6k357676
71Jan 14, '25Rising long-term bond yields are creating big issues for real estate investors. With the 10-year US treasury now rising past the Cap Rate, or net profit %, from a rental property. 4.9×439k3.1k5171.4k
72Dec 12, '24Annual income needed to buy a house over last 125 years.4.5×401k2.5k483627
73Mar 16, '25Markets in Florida with the most price cuts to start 2025: Punta Gorda - 41% price cut rate Cape Coral - 39 North Port - 37% Tampa - 36% Naples - 36% Most of these markets are expe4.5×397k2.8k463775
74Aug 3, '25The biggest problem in today's housing market is not mortgage rates. Rather - it's homeowners clutching onto an unsustainable amount of homeowner equity. Today, homeowners have ove4.4×391k3.2k471881
75Dec 9, '23Congress wants to ban Wall Street from buying homes.❌🏠 And force them to sell their entire portfolio. If that happens, watch out for home price drops in the following metros: 📉 A4.3×383k2.9k289280
76May 4, '25Existing home sales are scraping at multi-decade lows, and have shown no meaningful signs of recovery. The only other time in recent history when homebuyer demand was this low was 4.2×373k2.3k393630
77Mar 24, '25It’s beginning to look a lot like 2008. At least for home builders. I took this picture outside a home building site 45 min north of Tampa. They had over 20 vacant spec houses comp4.0×356k2k271369
78Sep 14, '22😬Big Problems ahead for Real Estate Investors. The 6-Month US Treasury now yields basically the same as Buying & Renting Out a House in America (aka Cap Rate). Translation: bi3.9×08.3k1.7k1.8k
79Apr 17, '25Zillow is now forecasting home values to drop in every large US metro over the next year. US national forecast: -1.7%. Biggest drop forecast in San Francisco at -5.2%.3.1×279k2.4k363562
80Oct 21, '24Mortgage rates spike back to 6.8%. The disconnect between mortgage rates and real estate investor returns has never been greater. Expect institutional investors to continue selling3.1×273k2.3k385517
81Jan 29, '25Home builders are signaling a recession warning for US economy. There's only been five other times in US history where home builder inventory has been this high, relative to sales.3.0×265k2k417718
82Aug 29, '25We literally have the worst homebuyer demand on record according to the NAR's pending sales index. Time for people to wake up and realize prices are the problem.2.9×258k3.6k544579
83Jun 25, '25Florida's housing market is experiencing something it hasn't experienced since 2008 - a correction is in full steam. Inventory is exploding, sellers are cutting prices, and we now 2.9×255k2.2k332393
84Jul 24, '25Home builders have 9.8 months of supply on their lots. Has only happened 6 other times in U.S. history. 5 times it led to a recession.2.6×235k2.9k614716
85Oct 18, '22Homebuyer Traffic just collapsed to lowest level since start of 2008 Housing Crash. -61% YoY. Not good.2.4×05.8k1.4k489
86Mar 10, '2592% of americans have no interest in buying a house until: a) mortgage rates hit 4% or b) home prices drop meaningfully Translation: homebuyer demand is not coming back anytime soo2.2×200k3k356257
87Jul 10, '22🔥Buckle Up. Housing Crash in Austin, TX is getting EPIC. ❌No buyers. Selling liquidating. Inventory piling up in record fashion. June 2022 Inventory Gain of +2,132 was nearly 3x p2.1×04.7k989621
88Nov 16, '22Home Builder Buyer Traffic just hit early-2008 Levels.📉 I'm not sure people have fully grasped how bad this Housing Recession/Crash is.1.9×04.7k1k446
89Dec 11, '2381% of Americans think Congress should ban Wall Street from buying homes. And force them to sell. That's quite a majority.👀1.9×166k3k28544
90Sep 15, '25Folks - this is why no one is buying houses. Income growth is 21.9% since 2019. Mortgage cost growth is 91.9%. Costs to buy have gone up 4x faster than incomes. Not sustainable.1.7×150k4.1k754566
91Sep 2, '22The Housing Crash is getting BAD in these cities.😬 📈Inventory up 100% YoY. For Sale Signs Everywhere. Prices dropping. Would not want to be a Homeowner in Phoenix, Raleigh, Austi1.6×03.5k742571
92Nov 21, '22It's now more profitable to buy a 6-Month US Treasury than to buy Real Estate. How do you think all those Wall Street Homebuyers feel right now? They're literally earning a lower y1.5×03.7k657515
93Oct 15, '22📉Fastest Housing Crash Markets. 15% Drop in Sale Prices in Oakland, San Jose, & Austin in ONLY 5 MONTHS. That's warp speed for a Housing Crash. Some of these markets could be 1.5×03.3k811416
94Oct 8, '22📉Shocking Collapse in Mortgage Applications last week. Purchase Demand at lowest level in a DECADE. Comparable to lows in 2010 during last Housing Crash.1.4×03.2k883332
95Sep 30, '22Housing Crash by State. 🔴Big Crash (aka Inventory Surge) 🔵No Crash (aka Inventory Down) Might be time to admit that people have stopped moving to AZ, NV, and TX. And are moving b1.4×03.1k607506
96Oct 11, '22What happens to Stock Prices when the Fed Pivots? Historically - they crash by even more.📉 Over the last 6 Major Recessions, Stocks Crashed an average of 28% AFTER the Fed did 1st1.3×02.4k672742
97Oct 5, '22$80 Trillion - combined value of US Housing + Stock Market $25 Trillion - GDP There's a lot more Wealth Destruction to go. 📉1.3×02.7k733433
98Oct 28, '22LOOK OUT. Inventory on For Sale and Rental Market is exploding at the same time. 📈 This is called a "Double Housing Crash". Where there's a simultaneous collapse in Buyer AND Rent1.3×02.7k643477
99Nov 14, '22Reminder: even with the recent decline in Home Prices, America is still in the largest Housing Bubble Ever. 40% Decline in Real Prices needed to get back to long-term trend. Prices1.2×02.7k651375
100Jul 4, '22🔥Well that was fast. Phoenix, AZ now has MORE Homes for Sale in 2022 than it did at Pandemic Start. +125% Inventory Surge in 2 Months. Buyers are gone. Sellers are desperate. This1.0×02.3k552206

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