Mike Konczal

@mtkonczal53k followers

VP Policy and Research, @EconomicSecProj. Former NEC. Economics. Liberal. #Rstats. Team Macro. Dad. Chicago guy.

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Posts 80 posts

#	Date	Post	↓ Outlier	Views	Likes	Reposts	Bookmarks
1	Aug 1, '25	This is a bad jobs report. 73,000 jobs would have been worrisome to begin with, but deeply negative revisions to the previous two-months wiped out much of the recent gains. 2025 lo	103×	1.6M	13k	2.8k	1.9k
2	Sep 29, '23	Well that's about the best inflation print ever. Core PCE has a monthly value below 2 percent annualized (the Fed's target) for the first time since the lockdowns. But under the ho	61.4×	931k	2.1k	563	403
3	Dec 22, '23	Wow. And there you have it. Six-month core PCE is at 1.87 percent, under the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. I was cautiously optimistic about 2023 - I have some 'soft landing'	41×	621k	1.8k	473	275
4	Dec 23, '22	Early gift for the White House: an absolutely perfect PCE inflation print, with core at 2% (!) target. War is over, if you want it. Many, including myself, were worried about diver	39.5×	599k	639	155	76
5	Aug 25, '23	I know everyone has done their Summers's graph take, but Krugman's point here really stands out if you redo the Summers graph with unemployment as the x-axis. The 1973-1976 episode	37.5×	569k	613	139	71
6	Oct 26, '23	Will never get sick of this image: Real GDP versus CBO's projection from before Covid. No scarring on this recovery.	33×	500k	1.3k	261	108
7	Sep 5, '25	It's a bad number. Just 22,000 jobs, and with revisions June went negative to -13,000. Worse, deeper into the data you can see that the theory of Trumponomics is failing. It's not	32.5×	493k	6k	1.3k	850
8	Mar 11, '25	This graphic 😬	26.6×	403k	1.3k	198	152
9	Jan 25, '24	We love to see it - real GDP comes in at 3.3%, so it is still clocking in above CBO's January 2020, pre-pandemic, projections.	22.4×	339k	681	191	37
10	Jul 12, '23	There it is: core inflation right at 2017-2019 levels. This is preloaded - and look, it's right there! This is after ~9 months of it being stuck around 5 percent. More, when we loo	21.8×	331k	713	151	116
11	Mar 11, '23	If you want to get a sense of what the fight looked like in real-time in 2018, against the deregulation bill (2155) people are linking to SVB, Here I was in the Times, making what	20.6×	312k	570	183	68
12	Mar 22, '24	I'm honored to join the National Economic Council and get to work with this great team. And I'm excited to help continue building this strong, broad-based, dynamic economic recover	19×	287k	763	70	22
13	Nov 11, '25	Amazing.	18.2×	275k	2.9k	284	245
14	Apr 3, '25	View post on X	17.4×	265k	854	64	49
15	Jul 10, '19	After asking Powell why the Fed has so consistently gotten the natural rate of unemployment wrong in the same direction, @AOC follows-up by discussing the breakdown of the Phillips	13.7×	0	5.9k	1.1k	223
16	Aug 12, '25	Core inflation was above expectations and had its highest print since January. But I don't think that really conveys how much more elevated it is in 2025, as shelter disinflation c	11.6×	176k	1.9k	459	454
17	Apr 7, '25	@JHWeissmann	11.4×	173k	1.7k	165	65
18	Jan 26, '24	6-month core PCE: 1.86% 3-month core PCE: 1.52% A year ago these numbers were above 4 percent. I understand the yawns and the sense it's old news, but this is just a massive and wi	9.9×	150k	765	207	123
19	Aug 12, '25	I think the endgame won't be Sharpie moments, where bad numbers are replaced with good ones. Instead it is creating so much confusion around the estimates on purpose, so much noise	8.9×	134k	805	99	42
20	Oct 6, '23	@Bernstein I got served a cocktail with one giant ice cube in it the other month. Wild.	8.4×	128k	523	1	7
21	Jul 7, '23	In celebrating today's labor force participation rate, remember that it's not just beating the pre-American Rescue Plan estimate, it's beating the estimate that the Congressional B	7.9×	120k	710	245	42
22	Aug 1, '25	Middle column here is just May and June incorporating the revision, where private education and health services account for 170% of all private sector job growth. Manufacturing job	7.8×	118k	638	107	36
23	Feb 8, '25	Irony is 1 reason Dodd-Frank created the CFPB was that pre-crisis consumer financial protection was spread across 7 agencies. It was nobody’s priority, so it was done poorly and wi	7.3×	111k	1.6k	413	135
24	Aug 1, '25	Sorry to be a messy b who loves drama, but let's remember last fall when then Senator Marco attacked the "fake jobs numbers" and implicitly the BLS itself for revisions that were s	6.6×	100k	1.1k	137	43
25	Nov 5, '21	The initial August jobs number of 235K started a wave of economic panic in the press. It was actually 483K, nearly half a million jobs (!). September's 194K, which signaled malaise	6.5×	0	2.1k	838	59
26	Sep 5, '19	I still find that people don't actually believe college was free for most of our history. Here's a 1951 UCLA catalogue casually says tuition is free; fees are $400 in today's dolla	6.1×	0	1.8k	939	84
27	Sep 11, '25	Inflation came in hot. You can see tariffs are driving the price of goods higher, while the price of non-housing services isn't falling to compensate. Shelter had a high month as w	5.9×	90k	978	334	143
28	Aug 24, '22	A 5 percent cap and: "proposed rule would fully cover the borrower’s unpaid monthly interest, so that—unlike with current [IDR] —a borrower’s loan balance will not grow so long as	5.8×	0	2.1k	433	113
29	Aug 1, '25	First: revisions. Negative revisions naturally occur at the end of recoveries/economic turning points from complexities of estimating business births, deaths, and seasonal adjusts.	5.0×	76k	747	97	37
30	Mar 12, '20	Good time to revisit this question from @RashidaTlaib to Powell: if the Federal Reserve can provide emergency liquidity to the financial sector in a crisis, why can't they do the s	4.9×	0	1.9k	566	62
31	May 21, '25	There's going to be a lot of comparisons of this tax cut to the W. Bush ones and the TCJA. But compare the distributional tables. While the earlier laws gave some crumbs to lower-i	4.1×	62k	572	221	115
32	Aug 27, '20	Here's @AOC in 2019 pushing Powell on whether relationship b/w inflation and unemployment was falling apart. Powell agrees, saying they've "learned that the economy can sustain muc	4.0×	0	1.9k	278	61
33	Jul 3, '19	It's crazy when David Brooks and others describe free college as if it is some weird, foreign import, as opposed to the lived norm of American life from the founding till the 1970s	4.0×	0	1.4k	525	31
34	Jan 9, '21	That the occupation of the Capitol was far more violent, and had the capacity for far more violence, than I understood while it was happening is the most jarring thing I’ve learned	3.7×	0	1.6k	378	44
35	Aug 1, '25	One potential reason for both the low job growth and (speculative) more negative revisions is that job growth has become more concentrated in fewer industries in 2025. Here's perce	3.6×	55k	584	59	24
36	Aug 10, '22	Forget the zero headline; core inflation takes a dive last month, coming in at an annualized 3%, driven by a decrease in services. Compare it to the ~5% average it's been at since	3.5×	0	1.3k	407	52
37	May 1, '20	That the Democrats don't control either the Senate or the White House but have to act as the governing party, as the GOP doesn't want a federal response to the crisis, is so import	3.5×	0	1.5k	358	26
38	Nov 6, '19	Me, before: "wealth taxes are simple, practical, and necessary for democracy and to check plutocracy." Me, now: "as the father of a daughter, wealth taxes are simple, practical, an	3.5×	0	2.1k	77	4
39	May 20, '25	It is good to have the government collect high-quality longitudinal surveys of the effects of alcohol and internet use.	3.4×	52k	1.4k	105	21
40	Mar 27, '19	Very here for @ewarren going industry by industry (this one for exploitative agribusiness) naming her enemies, giving actual solutions grounded in a real transfer of power away fro	3.3×	0	1.7k	249	16
41	Sep 12, '25	Consumer sentiment is currently just a pinch lower than the worst of the financial crisis, in a range associated with June and July of 2022, when inflation was at 8%.	3.3×	50k	540	173	71
42	Apr 11, '21	Actual candidate Joe Biden, in the general campaign with “Build Back Better,” called for about $5 trillion in new spending, split between recovery from COVID and investments in car	3.2×	0	1.6k	255	18
43	Jul 10, '19	It's worth watching from earlier: @AOC listing off the Fed's estimates of the long-run unemployment rate over the past five years, noting that unemployment is below all of them wit	3.2×	0	1.2k	299	53
44	Oct 27, '22	Here is today's Real GDP number against the CBO prepandemic projections from January 2020. I still believe this recovery to trend is a remarkable achievement that is worth defendin	3.2×	0	1.1k	384	39
45	Jul 10, '19	Interesting back and forth where @RashidaTlaib asks Powell that if the Fed can backstop the financial sector in a credit crisis and recession, why can't it do the same for public e	3.0×	0	1.1k	267	45
46	Aug 1, '25	Here's the unemployment rate broken down into its components. Job leavers has been subtracting from unemployment in 2025. Likely: people are afraid to quit their jobs under Trump d	2.9×	44k	597	71	33
47	Aug 2, '25	"Epistemic arrogance is baked in to the culture of Silicon Valley [...] particularly striking about this arrogance at this moment, though, is the extent to which it’s also baked in	2.9×	43k	547	64	84
48	Aug 17, '18	i'm socially liberal but fiscally	2.7×	0	1.4k	197	3
49	Jul 22, '19	@jyarow Here's Warren in 2009, being ridiculed on Planet Money for saying underwater mortgages and foreclosure wave was a serious macroeconomic crisis; Not just a matter of bailing	2.7×	0	1.1k	258	28
50	Aug 1, '25	Last, here's GDP measures for the first two quarters alongside jobs. I see weakness across the board, a slowdown since 2024, with little positive. Now is the time for a major pro-g	2.6×	40k	582	85	38
51	Feb 1, '22	Wordle 226 4/6 ⬛🟨⬛⬛⬛ ⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬛⬛⬛🟨⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Leadership means making the hard calls, like forgoing the 25% chance of a third guess win, to instead ruthlessly weed out the pote	2.5×	0	1.5k	43	26
52	Apr 11, '19	These graphics still floor me. Medicare administrators required absolute desegregation of hospitals, no "full deliberate speed" stuff, complete with exams informed by local civil r	2.5×	0	746	399	25
53	Nov 29, '19	One of the smartest and most prescient things I've read about current higher education was written in 1974, by the great education editor Fred Hechinger, who predicted splitting ai	2.4×	0	791	249	134
54	Feb 24, '20	This is why I think conservatives messaging against socialism is going to be hard, and maybe even a disaster. Here's Rubio laying out the case against socialism by discussing "free	2.4×	0	1k	145	36
55	Dec 26, '20	For the last 7+ months I’ve been saying that the Left should claim, highlight, and center the fight over extending the massive expansion of UI, not just as an important program but	2.4×	0	1k	188	37
56	Aug 10, '22	When you bring down unemployment and core inflation in the same month	2.3×	0	1.1k	182	12
57	Feb 4, '22	I’m available to send the following daily to any interested lawmakers. This could be us.	2.2×	0	1.2k	112	27
58	Feb 20, '20	@sewcialism @melissagira "The good Dale is in the Lodge and he can't leave. The bad Dale is out here and endorsing Bloomberg. Write it in your diary.”	2.1×	0	1.2k	96	9
59	May 18, '20	I like how there isn't even a pretense of "if elected, we will pass the XYZ Act, which would unleash this and reform that and do another thing" now, policies to pitch and sell to v	2.1×	0	756	252	18
60	Nov 28, '20	That neoliberalism has cornered owning growth, innovation, dynamism and competition in the popular imagination while ruling an era of slow growth, productivity stagnation, and mass	2.1×	0	829	180	60
61	Mar 18, '20	If you were confused why people dug in so hard on free college debates, even if it seemed like the stakes were so low, it's because this targeted vs. universalism really is a giant	2.0×	0	947	179	18
62	Apr 22, '19	A thing on Warren's proposals coverage misses: it's less about lists of good, thought-out ideas (which they are) but more an intellectual overhaul that comes once you realize how b	2.0×	0	981	169	8
63	Sep 5, '25	Here's the breakdown by industry. The first theory of Trumponomics was that tariffs would build up manufacturing work and federal workforce cuts would free up workers for them. Tha	2.0×	30k	537	99	33
64	Oct 20, '20	I don't think the commentary class is mentally ready for the amount of additional spending and deficits we'll need over the next several years. $5 trillion in new spending is both	1.9×	0	835	187	14
65	Feb 9, '20	This shows a level of disdain for what the actual liberal infrastructure has been thinking, building, and arguing. It's not "fashion." The deficit isn't a priority while rates rema	1.9×	0	902	142	11
66	Jan 16, '20	You: neoliberalism doesn't exist, you dolt Today: Paulo Guedes, the Minister of Economy under Bolsonaro, will be introduced by Niall Ferguson at a special Mont Perlerin Society mee	1.9×	0	852	164	14
67	Jul 13, '21	This graphic is the key point. If you strip out autos and pandemic-affected services, rest of the economy actually had a deceleration of inflation, continued from May. The scary, n	1.8×	0	618	230	39
68	Sep 3, '20	David Graeber's Debt was just an amazing book, big ideas across history, insights from economic anthropology that were mind-blowing for those like me who had not encountered them b	1.7×	0	537	167	126
69	Jun 17, '20	Someone just pointed me to this Warren poster from her Presidential campaign. Noteworthy to me because it references my favorite political poster of all time, this one from FDR's 1	1.7×	0	798	95	38
70	Oct 26, '21	Monthly job growth has averaged 561,000 jobs a month in 2021. It's 612,000 a month since March. The average for June-July was 1.026 million jobs a month. Big upside revisions, neve	1.6×	0	536	216	39
71	Nov 18, '20	Student loans as a replacement for public funding of higher ed (the norm for centuries) is a recent experiment, and it failed. There's a shadow game where experts know this; they j	1.6×	0	705	166	14
72	Nov 2, '20	If Biden wins tomorrow, we could be entering an Era of Large Numbers. Massive spending, giant deficits, a high debt-to-GDP ratio: all fantastic and necessary.	1.5×	0	644	108	30
73	Aug 21, '20	This is an excellent dive by @jleibenluft into how stronger European labor laws made it easier to manage the pandemic and better structure their economic response. It's a really ke	1.5×	0	447	208	56
74	Oct 30, '20	No matter what happens with the book, I’ll be happy that I made this table of contents exist.	1.5×	0	730	43	60
75	Dec 1, '18	This strikes me as the biggest norm-breaking threat to democracy, being carried out by the everyday, state-level foot soldiers of the conservative movement.	1.4×	0	519	196	9
76	Nov 10, '20	Broke: You can't just overhaul 18% of the economy overnight by legislating single-payer, too much uncertainty. Woke: Six random conservative operators are going to determine 18% of	1.4×	0	644	149	11
77	Aug 14, '22	Dobbs and the criminalization of reproductive choice isn’t just going to change the dynamics for women voters.	1.4×	0	684	102	17
78	Nov 29, '19	There was an excellent 2016 @DanaGoldstein piece on De Blasio's pre-K program which consciously benefitted everyone, even the 1%. 2 things stood out: (1) universality made it succe	1.4×	0	519	183	18
79	Nov 29, '20	Pretty great outcome. All people who understand how important executing the recovery and getting to full employment will be. They’ll also have strong antibodies against cynical deb	1.4×	0	666	109	9
80	Mar 23, '20	@FrankLuntz It fails on virtually everything that needs to be done. It's not just the bailouts, as gross as those are. It's not up to the moment.	1.4×	0	490	158	17
81	Sep 14, '22	Yeah I’m a bit of a “watch guy.” Like I’ll drop $6 to $8 grand on a watch every 4 months. That but replace “watch” with “child care.”	1.3×	0	798	23	15
82	Apr 3, '19	Friendly reminder that on the few times that the filibuster has blocked the GOP agenda since 2017 they have immediately removed that part of it. (it was never blocking any of their	1.3×	0	508	176	7
83	Jul 10, '19	For more on how economists are taking a serious, critical reexamination of the Phillips Curve and the idea of NAIRU, see this:	1.3×	0	567	101	39
84	Jul 1, '19	Given the way every other country with universal health care actually works, from the UK to Sweden still having private insurance, the "single payer means the abolition of all priv	1.3×	0	501	138	9
85	Aug 19, '22	Given how this debate is professionals talking among themselves, it's not well appreciated how ~40% of people with student loans don't have college degrees. A subset of debtors we'	1.2×	0	520	118	11
86	Feb 26, '21	Wild how the parliamentarian and the reconciliation process will let through things like Arctic drilling (2017) or the fever swamps “Restoring Americans' Healthcare Freedom Act” (t	1.2×	0	492	123	18
87	Nov 5, '21	I get the narrative of the jobs numbers has to be determined within 5 minutes of 8:30am. But imagine in August the press didn't use a 235K number to whip out their Jimmy Carter the	1.2×	0	532	108	4
88	Apr 23, '20	Rubio et al wanted the credit for going Denmark, but they wanted to do it on the cheap and small, and they wanted the deservingness optics of just helping small business. They've e	1.2×	0	497	121	13
89	Oct 16, '19	Warren is right, you won't touch wealth through income taxes, and this is even more true post-Trump taxes. Check out how little the very rich make from salaries, from Batchelder an	1.2×	0	430	148	14
90	Nov 8, '20	The conservative movement on Trump after today.	1.2×	0	627	66	2
91	Nov 17, '20	@caroljsroth Attend a public college before the 1970s, when it was tuition free by design, for centuries in fact.	1.1×	0	672	17	4
92	Oct 19, '22	It’s true, I was stumped.	1.1×	0	647	31	9
93	Feb 12, '21	Rest in peace Nancy Konczal, my mom, a beloved parent and grandmother. She passed away last week and was laid to rest this week; she'll be remembered by her loving children and gra	1.1×	0	609	4	1
94	Jan 22, '21	Very encouraging dynamic. Democrats are using feedback on best implementation practices to push better and further than what they had been envisioning in the past. They are also ge	1.0×	0	499	82	5
95	Jul 1, '21	Just traveled to NYC for my first in-person meeting in a year and a half. I’m going to say “this is like a zoom meeting but in person ha ha ha” I have a lot riding on this line. An	1.0×	0	596	7	5
96	Mar 25, '19	No matter what happens with the Mueller report, the Dems spent the last two years doing what they needed: taking back the House with a wave election, started building the next gene	1.0×	0	482	68	2
97	Mar 26, '19	This is a leading intellectuals in the conservative movement. Rather than argue for, say, a carbon tax, his climate change agenda is that more babies means more engineers and innov	1.0×	0	448	88	2
98	Oct 5, '20	A child allowance can be online immediately, paying monthly soon after. A public option is ~1 year to get setup. Shovel-ready green investment jobs can move quickly. All can pass i	0.9×	0	437	80	6
99	Jan 18, '21	Fantastic. Couldn't ask for more. Rohit redefined debate about student loans through serious enforcement against predatory for-profit colleges last time he was at the CFPB; excited	0.9×	0	424	66	10
100	Jun 29, '20	@JStein_WaPo As in he's arguing that the UI is causing the unemployment that is making the economy weak?	0.8×	0	483	19	0
101	Aug 6	Come work with me! I'm hiring a Senior Director for my team. I want to push what a policy and research team can do, and this position will be at the forefront of tackling the big e	0.6×	9.5k	37	11	5

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