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Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle1795k followers

software/ML engineer, polling+political data @TheArgumentMag, co-founder @SplitTicket_, and @cal alum. ✉️ lakshya@theargumentmag.com. i hate sports

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1Mar 13, '25I'm teaching databases this semester at Berkeley. My students all seem unusually brilliant. Not many go to office hours, and not too many folks post on the course forum asking proj112×10.3M117k5.3k15k
2Feb 27, '24Earnest question: can someone please explain what is wrong with this?67.9×6.2M57k1.2k1.6k
3Feb 6, '25This is demonic. It’s the purest distillation of evil.58.1×5.3M138k23k8.5k
4Nov 2, '24New @DMRegister/@jaselzer poll of Iowa 🟦 Kamala Harris: 47% (+3) 🟥 Donald Trump: 44% 808 LVs, MOE 3.4%51.6×4.7M10k858413
5Jul 7, '25the public has no obligation to participate in strikes!50.1×4.6M11k275436
6Jan 30, '25I get the urge to dunk on this, but if you're *at all* familiar with the American South, this is incredibly impressive for Louisiana, and I genuinely don't mean that in a backhande39.8×3.6M97k2.4k2.1k
7Jul 24, '242008 really feels like a fever dream.36.9×3.4M126k4.1k5k
8Nov 6, '24Well, the Selzer poll looks like it might have been among the worst of the cycle. Harris is likely to lose Iowa by 8-10 at this point. Very different from the D+3 result she had.34.8×3.2M22k1.2k930
9Feb 3, '25I remember having a conversation a year ago about an incredibly worrying trend. In surveys, the dividing line between young voters wasn't just male vs female — it was whether you g26.1×2.4M43k2.8k5.9k
10Jul 25, '23One of the most insane moments I have seen on any social media forum was when we learned that in Sweden, if a kid was at his friend's house near dinnertime, the parents would make 24.8×2.3M15k882844
11Jan 2, '25I’ve criticized California’s academic policies a lot, but people should understand what this bill does and what the academic landscape for children is now before getting their knic23×2.1M37k1.5k1.9k
12Dec 17, '24The senator is tweeting about a photo of a TIE fighter prop from Star Wars.20.6×1.9M36k3.1k1.1k
13Feb 25, '25Berkeley rejects all kinds of qualified applicants but if you're getting rejected from Davis and Santa Barbara as well, then there might actually be some massive red flag in the ap19.1×1.8M32k9761.5k
14Jun 6, '24A lot of people (including prominent journalists!) criticized USA's approach, which basically went "recruit the best immigrants to beat everyone else at their own game", but I can 18.8×1.7M35k1.9k996
15Feb 25, '25The idea here is to slash USPS delivery to 1x a week and make it an opt-in, paid service. Do that and you literally turn Alabama blue.17.7×1.6M38k2.2k1.3k
16Nov 28, '23Nothing I have seen on this site will ever beat this set of posts.16.1×1.5M17k4701.3k
17Mar 14, '25To give you an idea of how toxic the national Democratic Party is in the eyes of swing voters: - 10 out of 13 voters said “this isn’t what I voted for” - only 1 of those 10 said th14.6×1.3M17k1.3k1.2k
18Jun 12, '24Stop and think about how insane this #OH06 special is. It's a Trump +29 district, and the Democrat is currently on track to post a 15 point overperformance. The Democrat is a forme14.4×1.3M7.8k990318
19Dec 10, '24Yeah, I mean, that’s what you’d expect from 17-year-olds.13.7×1.3M42k1.2k359
20Jul 23, '24Between Biden not trusting them, Pence refusing to get in the car with them on 1/6, and the Trump assassination security debacle, the only thing anyone in American politics can agr13.3×1.2M22k1.8k1.2k
21Jan 18, '25Approaching Trump's inauguration, this is *probably* the zenith of conservative influence in pop culture and society over the last 30 years, despite Trump's relatively slim victory13×1.2M9.9k6022.4k
22Sep 5, '24It is insane to me that we subject ourselves to an intolerable election season every four years just so that 50,000 morons in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania can figure out w12.8×1.2M16k744486
24Aug 14, '24This man is a generational talent. He manages to take the most banal concepts ("grandparents helping to raise children can be a really nice thing") and 4chans it up in the weirdest11.9×1.1M23k2k1.1k
25Mar 9, '25It really is surprising how so many people have just decided to stop caring or advocating for Palestinian rights now that the Democrats have lost the election — it's almost as if t11.8×1.1M9.5k936563
26Nov 9, '24I’ve said this before the election but just so there’s no doubt, Kamala Harris is the one person I do not blame much for this debacle. She was put in an impossible situation, still11.7×1.1M13k938779
27Apr 9, '25There is an extremely simple answer that is likely to be true.11.2×1M19k549831
28Nov 6, '24I cannot believe what I'm seeing, but Kamala Harris is going to win New York by the thinnest margin in a generation. Looks like the state is seeing roughly a 10 point shift to the 10.8×987k8k683656
31Nov 6, '24Harris is on track to underperform Biden by 5 points in Minnesota, despite picking Tim Walz as her VP. If there's a home state VP effect, we're just not seeing it — that's basicall10.1×923k7.7k561512
32Oct 30, '24"We have to stop getting so offended." - JD Vance, 24 hours ago10.0×913k18k1.1k200
33Nov 6, '24I get the urge to be angry, but it's probably worth noting that Biden literally walked a picket line and bent over backwards to rescue pensions for unions like Teamsters. It did no10.0×912k13k1.2k883
34Nov 3, '24Selzer is again finding something nobody else shows. Even if you take the very tail of the range implied by the margin of error, you’d still get Trump +4 in a state he won by 8, an9.9×907k8.9k441449
35Nov 4, '24I think you guys really have no idea what the average voter is like. Literally nobody on the planet outside of the most hardcore, committed GOP partisan has heard of this squirrel 9.0×828k14k419231
36Jan 15, '25The left can be extremely annoying, awful, and miserable online, but people are about to realize that the right has a *significantly* greater problem that just has not received att8.9×811k9.7k450885
37Feb 22, '23half of america refuses to pick up a phone call now because of this man8.7×795k13k976156
38Feb 22, '23Quite the night for Democrats today in special elections. - In New Hampshire, a Hassan +9 seat is D+11. - In Kentucky, a Biden +31 state senate seat is D+54 - In #VA04, they're on 8.5×783k6.5k83568
39Jan 7, '25This…would basically amount to *actually* stealing a seat. It’s incredible that this is about to succeed, and it’s crazy that it’s not getting more attention.8.2×755k12k3.4k515
41Feb 5, '25Having actually *taught* a computer science class at Berkeley several times as the instructor, all I’ll say is that completing a project like that successfully in two days does not7.8×713k19k1.1k521
43Aug 10, '24Want to reinforce that if the Harris campaign can carefully vet, screen, and fly in 20,000 actors for a rally organized at the last minute, then they deserve to be handed the presi7.6×693k19k1.4k255
44Sep 21, '24It is extremely funny that 90% of the male journalists on Twitter have been simping for Olivia Nuzzi, while all of the female journalists are beyond livid for her committing an inc7.5×686k8.1k728259
45Jun 28, '24Twelve years ago:7.5×685k20k454532
46Dec 24, '24Never going to happen, so not worth discussing in much more detail, but FWIW every single one of these seats would be safe Democratic.7.0×643k15k321361
47Apr 2, '25every single investor is going to start using they/them pronouns by the end of this insanity.6.8×623k15k681501
48Aug 26, '25Nobody will read this statement. By itself, it has no electoral implications. But I can’t think of too many posts that better encapsulate the complete headlessness of Democratic me6.8×622k9.8k492477
49Jun 17Our midterms model is out! House: 🔵 86% (229 D-206 R) Senate: 🔴 56% (50D-50R)6.8×619k1.2k197290
51Jul 22, '24The thing with conservatives and Kamala Harris is that they just can’t stop themselves from launching the most vapid, inane attacks you can imagine, which are not likely to move ma6.7×615k15k666305
52Aug 23, '23View post on X6.7×610k8.7k58985
53Jun 23, '25This is one of the most sickening things any modern American administration has ever done. Whenever you think both sides are the same, just ask yourself why the Democrats never did6.6×601k17k3.1k1.6k
54Oct 28, '24This is an openly hateful campaign trafficking in some of the most vile rhetoric, confident of a landslide and convinced that they can make no misstep, because they're betting peop6.5×592k8.9k1.3k322
55Jan 31, '25Whoever gave Donald Trump that book on William McKinley will not see the light of heaven.6.1×561k13k676464
56Jan 28, '25Elections have consequences. Beyond bringing lawsuits, there's basically nothing that Democrats can do here. They control exactly nothing in government and this is by executive ord6.0×553k10k720355
58Aug 16, '24It has objectively been the right move to swap Biden out for Harris, and she is doing far better than he ever was. But it's *remarkable* how much better Biden sounds now than he di5.9×539k9.1k228364
59Mar 3, '25I've got to say, it's absolutely breathtaking to watch Republican representatives almost uniformly behave like they all represent R+55 areas in Eastern Tennessee. Elections in 20265.9×538k7.2k352334
60Nov 4, '24This was basically Isildur refusing to throw the Ring of Power into the fires of Mount Doom when he had the chance, and the events since then have only made the analogy more apt.5.9×536k6.7k680316
61Sep 6, '25You do not have to like or agree with Zohran Mamdani to recognize that this is potentially the single most talented speaker in the Democratic Party, and that the center has nobody 5.8×535k12k951855
62Jul 26, '24Never in a million years could anyone have predicted this headline.5.8×534k11k845496
63Jul 5, '25There was a time when this would have gotten you fired. And I don’t mean 2019 — I mean literally anytime before 2024.5.7×521k10k441332
64Jan 16, '24LEAKED: the Ron DeSantis presidential campaign’s full concession speech5.4×495k15k843240
65Apr 5, '25If you want a quick temperature check on how the political realities of this are unfolding in his administration, consider that Elon Musk has said absolutely nothing on Trump's sig5.2×477k7.7k387476
66Feb 8, '25I get that the Democratic Party is flawed and has a lot of problems, and I have many frustrations regarding it. But I voted for Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris in eac5.2×473k17k1.1k297
68Aug 16, '24This will hardly make an ounce of difference come election day, but it's breathtaking to remember that anything close to this sort of comment once used to end political careers ove5.0×461k9.5k881264
69Jun 26, '25View post on X5.0×457k7.6k327936
70Aug 4, '24So. I hope the VP sweepstakes shows why an open primary post-Biden withdrawal would have been a disaster.4.9×450k6.5k335128
71Feb 22, '24I’m not Christian so I fully admit that my knowledge is lacking. Can someone please let me know which verse in the Bible says this is OK?4.8×444k6.8k720203
72Jul 10, '24If Trump wins a second term, he’s going to be handed an absolutely roaring economy again, and the discourse is going to be absolutely insufferable.4.7×426k6.4k638203
73Jul 21, '24Harris straddled the line perfectly, didn’t show an ounce of disloyalty to Biden, and quietly had the strongest whip operation built up. Didn’t take endorsements for granted, and s4.6×423k10k660346
75Apr 6, '23I'm sorry but this is still the funniest tweet ever sent out by a sitting president4.2×387k7.9k528200
76Oct 30, '24my favorite thing about this post is that it's wrong in every way. even if you nuked NYC off the map, New York would actually *still* be a blue state.4.2×382k7.4k195152
77Nov 6, '24Preposterous. To start with, Walz had no home-state effect despite being a fairly popular governor in MN. Minimal evidence to believe Shapiro would have staved any of this off, whe4.0×368k7.5k323236
78Jan 23, '22damn he went through with it too4.0×028k2.3k115
79Jul 3, '24It's kind of incredible to see how insulated people are to the point where a landmark Parkinson's bill gets signed, a representative who is *literally dying* from it attends, and t4.0×367k8.7k1.2k199
81Aug 18, '22I cannot believe this campaign is real.3.9×029k1.1k331
83Feb 6, '25Uh. Yes. Actually, YES THAT’S BASICALLY IT AND THAT’S WHY YOU DON’T RUN THE GOVERNMENT LIKE A FUCKING STARTUP3.8×349k11k733346
85Aug 16, '24One of the biggest reasons Tim Walz was picked over Josh Shapiro is that every event with Josh Shapiro becomes an event *about* Josh Shapiro, and the job of the Vice President is t3.5×323k8.3k253161
86Oct 23, '24Open to eating crow on this, but if you're really thinking that there's a story coming out that will end the Trump 2024 campaign, then you must really be reaping the riches from th3.4×313k6k27272
87Apr 1, '25I think it's long past time for people to have an honest, nuanced discussion on vaccines and their benefits. That discussion must be grounded in fact. The fact is that vaccines are3.3×300k8.4k529236
88Jan 18, '25Nancy Mace is going nowhere in Republican leadership despite checking all the boxes as a certified lunatic.3.3×298k9.3k296128
89Dec 6, '24The census counts everyone living in the US, regardless of status. Having any knowledge of this stuff, or having any staff that knew anything at all, could have saved Mace the trou3.2×297k7.4k533114
90Jul 31, '24thinking of this today for no reason at all.2.9×267k11k403202
91Jun 9, '25Gymnastics are like...the one sport where *men* affirmatively benefit from gender segregation.2.9×262k15k401160
92Jul 24, '24Kamala Harris is receiving wall-to-wall positive coverage, has had a dream rollout, has consolidated a fractured base and core constituencies almost instantly, and has re-injected 2.8×260k6.7k336229
94Jun 16, '25Local Tweeter shocked to learn that most well-adjusted people don’t like living in a state of constant outrage.2.0×187k7.4k320121
95May 15, '24Yeah, this is the textbook definition of "economic anxiety", isn't it?2.0×185k6.8k488153
98Sep 8, '25Domestic violence is a crime and this used to be the type of thing that would basically disqualify someone for public office and force resignations. But here we are now.1.5×141k7.6k880171
99May 4, '22One big potential red flag for Republicans in their Senate races: here are battleground levels of net support for abortion, per @nytimes: GA: +2, NC: +5, OH: +10 WI: +13, PA: +13, 1.2×05.8k1.5k109

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