JohannesBorgen

@jeuasommenulle54k followers

Le poids d'un oiseau qui s'y pose suffit à déplacer la terre. The weight of a bird landing on it is enough to move the Earth

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Posts 74 posts

#	Date	Post	↓ Outlier	Views	Likes	Reposts	Bookmarks
1	Jun 10, '24	By now you've probably read 10 times that Macron called parliamentary elections to put RN/Le Pen in power & wait for them to mess up so much that Macron's heir will win in 2027	77.2×	1M	1.3k	212	771
2	Mar 19, '23	CS confirms shareholders will get 3bn and AT1 holders 0. This won't go down very well as it's an obvious breach of the hierarchy of claims	63.5×	847k	1.2k	229	83
3	Sep 25, '24	The 5Y yield of Greek government bonds is now below the French ones. Μπράβο	55×	733k	1.7k	502	232
4	Nov 7, '24	Something absolutely wild is happening on the Euro swap cash basis and it's both extremely important & very puzzling - first time it's negative since 1999 Lots of theories arou	40.4×	539k	1.8k	275	828
5	Mar 24, '23	Tbf there’s probably not much to add to this, but the people have spoken, so a thread on Deutsche Bank and the market action today that's been pretty wild	32.4×	432k	480	103	195
6	Mar 11, '23	You'll see zillions of hot takes about bankruptcy of SVB $SVIB but bottom line is: they were just greedy and reckless. All they had to do was buy t-bills or deposit at the Fed &amp	30.3×	404k	1.2k	179	97
7	Jan 21, '23	I must confess this chart & numbers surprised me because it seemed wrong but also it was tweeted by reliable accounts afaik. So what’s going on? Are corporate treasurers in pan	28.2×	377k	448	70	117
8	Jun 21, '24	Non seulement le calcul d'Antoine est juste, mais la réalité est bien pire que ce qu'il dit et très loin des calculs fantaisistes ci-dessous. Voici ce que cela donne réllement. (Sp	25.1×	335k	998	180	312
9	Mar 21, '22	The narrative sounds simple: sanctions will crash the Ruble, isolate Russian economy, create massive inflation and hopefully Russia will cave. But the chart for EUR vs RUB stubborn	24.9×	0	6k	1.9k	1.8k
10	Mar 12, '23	Probably foolish of me to make forecasts about the future, but what do I think will happen with SVB next week? $SVIB #SVB (I know this will horribly backfire but never mind)	24.6×	329k	550	106	190
11	Mar 15, '23	Big move: SNB annonces liquidity backstop for Credit Suisse	22.7×	303k	424	140	40
12	Jul 8, '24	Thoughts about what's next in France + some important budget geekery in the middle. A long thread. There is obviously no party capable of governing, But the two most important figu	21.3×	283k	532	111	365
13	Mar 14, '23	One the most hilarious fact in this SVB/Signature debacle is that in Q4 2022 the geniuses at Signature decided to hedge the rates risk of their book... in the wrong direction !!! I	20.9×	279k	734	106	129
14	Feb 28, '24	An absolute MUST READ on Bloom today about the private credit market. In a nutshell - ppl invest because there's no trade so pricess don't move (artifically low vol) - marks in fun	20.3×	270k	664	110	286
15	Jun 12, '24	@Mij_Europe This is the tweet of the day	18.9×	252k	2.3k	53	101
16	Oct 29, '24	BNP has very good notes on the US elections and how to trade them. They are mostly focused on timing and the info you should focus on. Here's my summary	18×	240k	761	128	990
17	Mar 15, '23	I've done my fair share of dunking on CS in the past, so let me point out two big items that make the contagion from SVB a bitabsurd: - CS has a very large amount of liquidity (sti	17.7×	236k	502	98	81
18	May 13, '24	Is another (what ?! not again!) Italian bank going to be bust? The price action of BFF certainly doesn’t inspire much confidence. What happened? Simple: the Bank of Italy did an in	16×	214k	494	86	294
19	Jun 9, '24	Unbelievable !!! Macron calls for general elections ! This is an earthquake in French politics.	15.5×	207k	426	48	23
20	Mar 20, '23	About the CS AT1 wipeout and for the "read the docs, duh" crowd, may I point out that the docs were not the legal basis for wiping out AT1 but a new law that was passed yesterday?	15.5×	207k	546	84	69
21	May 19, '25	Ivy league unis being cut from federal funding means they have to sell private equity stakes at deep discount. You'd think it's because they have to fund their operations. But no,	13.6×	182k	1.2k	151	230
22	Jun 20, '24	Barclays just introduced a US Immigration tracker which they say provide better insights than the many official sources. Bottom line is huge increase in "Humanitarian" migration +	13.4×	179k	617	122	482
23	Dec 19, '21	Looking at French Covid hospital data I found something very intriguing. Since the beginning of the pandemic, I pay attention to a metric I call ICU exit rate: the % of ICU patient	12.9×	0	3.9k	1k	381
24	Nov 26, '24	Come on, people, we can do it !!! French 10y vs Greek 10y is at the tightest since data is available & only 3bps from turning positive ! GO GREEEECE	12.7×	169k	666	121	55
25	Sep 9, '25	YEEEEEEEEEEES WE'VE DONE IIIIIIIT CONGRATS FOLKS France 10Y yield is above Italian 10Y yield for the first time since the Euro was introduced	10.5×	140k	2.1k	326	106
26	Mar 5, '23	This is really a fascinating chart - and definitely not what I expected : average age of human procreation over the last 250 000 (!) years.	10.3×	137k	461	76	145
27	Feb 21, '25	Exemple sur la brillante idée de la taxe plancher à 2%: nos brillants ingénieurs qui ont développé Mistral ont la main sur une pépite qui vaut maintenant >100m chacun vu les val	9.5×	127k	1.6k	203	98
28	May 15, '23	There's customer service, and then there's customer service at Revolut: "the head of Revolut’s UK operations accidentally texted a disgruntled customer to say he would be waiting f	9.4×	125k	399	55	16
29	Mar 14, '23	Deutsche Bank has a new astonishing forecast for the next ECB & Fed meetings. "Absolutely no idea at the moment what the Fed and ECB are going to do at their meetings over the	8.2×	110k	643	95	14
30	Oct 26, '20	Last Friday, Macron floated the idea of a new general lockdown in France. Ouch. And because I’m fed up with reading so much garbage and contradictory stuff on Covid, I decided to h	7.9×	0	1.8k	612	372
31	Jun 22, '23	I could go on forever about Credit Suisse's legendary behaviour over the years, but this snippet is top ShitBanksDo Index stuff “[in] the past dozen years, Credit Suisse put 35 bil	7.9×	105k	381	67	34
32	Mar 20, '23	I couldn't believe it but apparently it's true, he really said it. Being ridiculed by the Greek banking system is really another level.	7.5×	100k	619	92	23
33	Jan 10, '25	This is pure gold, Greek edition. How did Eurobank achieve such an increase in capital ratios, in Q3 24? The trick is in the +99bps. Which comes from a mysterious decrease of 2.4bn	7.5×	99k	425	67	366
34	Jun 24, '24	@RuxandraTeslo Surely it's a joke	7.3×	97k	1.2k	0	3
35	May 24, '24	The market: OMG Goldman are so smart, they managed to dodge the loss on Archegos when everyone else got burned. The truth at trial: Archegos trader accidentally transfered 470m *to	7.3×	97k	606	40	75
36	Jul 2, '25	France is famous for wine, cheese, Versailles, football… and credit ratings. Today I’m going to tell you how French banks will save billions of capital thanks to an old institution	7.2×	95k	679	94	643
37	May 18, '22	Time to go back to the incredible Allianz story that broke yesterday: how did a boring German insurer end up paying 5.8bn$ in fines & client compensation? A thread + what I thi	6.8×	0	1.7k	349	620
38	Mar 20, '23	Unbelievable	6.7×	90k	407	72	1
39	Feb 16, '24	That's got to be 1 of the most hilarious non performing loan ever. Hamburg Commercial Bank booked a NPL on... its own headquarters! They lent the money (142m !) to Signa to buy the	6.6×	88k	511	80	67
40	Sep 19, '25	France is the perfect example of an old phenomenon: brainwashing works. Like, it really really works. There are now millions of French people who believe that French companies rece	6.4×	85k	1.7k	198	130
41	Jun 15, '24	France has approx the world record for public spending. Yet 70% of voters want more public spending. So what far left & far right are arguing about is who's antisemitic & w	4.9×	66k	541	99	50
42	Mar 2, '22	Someone put an order on Sberbank at 0. Like 0.000.	4.9×	0	2.1k	216	46
43	Jun 24, '24	I'm sorry to inform you that France is now officially an Emerging Market.	4.6×	62k	410	37	27
44	Sep 5, '24	This is going to be interesting Step 1: BBVA makes a bid on Sabadell Step 2: Spanish government firmly opposes the bid Step 3: Bank of Spain supports the bid Step 4: Gvt minister b	4.5×	61k	765	135	67
45	Oct 2, '24	One big French company, when asked if higher corporate income tax would be very bad for profits : "Oh no, we never make any money in France"	4.4×	58k	685	69	37
46	Nov 8, '25	@jess_ann_pin In France it works like that and it certainly didn't improve the birth rate	4.1×	55k	593	2	13
47	Oct 10, '24	French govt is presenting an extremely important budget today so for the less familiar, let me remind you the golden rule of French politics: "Spending cut" means spending will inc	4.0×	54k	1.2k	140	44
48	Apr 8, '25	Bloomberg has some nice charts on the tariffs’ impacts. The first one argues that tariffs on China are coming globally: too many countries will see a spike of imports from China &a	3.9×	52k	441	100	250
49	Dec 20, '24	Watching Musk Tweet is like watching a teenager get radicalised on YouTube videos. From "I'm in the center with no political bias" to "I support AFD" in a few years. Don't try this	3.7×	50k	930	91	31
50	Jun 25, '21	Long overdue, the thread I promised about ESG investing – mostly personal experience and thoughts. Remember I mostly invest in fins – but not only.	3.6×	0	812	159	389
51	Mar 1, '22	What’s going on with European banks and what are the risks from the Ukrainian conflict? I know it might sound slightly irrelevant, considering all is going on, but the past few day	3.5×	0	849	235	295
52	Mar 10, '20	@Samfr This can help and take good care of yourself	3.2×	0	893	286	140
53	Oct 3, '22	I haven’t tweeted much about Credit Suisse mayhem over the weekend – mostly because I found the tweet that triggered the whole thing a bit silly. Btw the tweet has been deleted and	3.1×	0	962	130	238
54	Aug 5, '24	Italy, summarised. "Italy implemented a tax on banks last year however, it didn’t lead to any payments made to the Government"	3.1×	41k	477	55	34
55	Jun 17, '22	Answering to questions I often get (@kittysquiddy ) here’s a thread about what the BIG rates shock means for banks. I won’t get into the details of why banks are exposed to rates b	3.1×	0	549	107	484
56	Mar 7, '22	This is wild. I've never seen anything like that in my life. The bond was due today. Traded at 0.5% yield for a year. Crashed to 50% par. Repaid at par today. * GAZPRU 6.51 03/07/2	2.9×	0	991	176	107
57	Sep 13, '25	You know France is screwed when @jburnmurdoch starts doing charts about French pensions 😅	2.9×	38k	558	33	53
58	Apr 7, '20	I've never seen anything like the German loan guarantee program: instant loans for SMEs, 100% guaranteed, up to 3m of revenues (max 800k), only condition is profitable last year or	2.8×	0	776	325	42
59	Jun 28, '22	Something fascinating will happen in Q3 on the French mortgage market. How will French banks be able to make money at all on new loans? Follow me for a quick thread, because I thin	2.8×	0	758	135	248
60	Apr 3, '25	Look, everyone is saying that Trump's tariffs formula has no basis in mainstream economic theories, but I'd like to point out that it also has no basis in batshit crazy economic th	2.5×	33k	607	99	25
61	Apr 6, '21	We finally have the total cost of the Archegos disaster for Credit Suisse: 4.4bn CHF. There is one question I get A LOT: how is it possible that Credit Suisse took a multi-billion	2.4×	0	581	130	203
62	Jun 27, '19	STOP EVERYTHING YOU'RE DOING. IT IS HERE. THE FIRST ZERO COUPON PERPETUAL BOND EVER.	2.3×	0	711	206	40
63	Jun 2, '20	Holy cow ! The S&P downgrade/upgrade ratio on levered loans hit 43.2 ! That's not a %, btw. That's 43.2 downgrades for 1 upgrade 😱. The peak in the GFC was 8.4.	2.3×	0	685	216	47
64	Aug 14, '20	I don't even know where to start. The German finance minister confirmed that BaFin staff actively traded Wirecard stock in the months before the bankruptcy. Seriously?	2.2×	0	593	233	16
65	Feb 4, '22	Unsurprisingly after this Bund move, the question I get the most if this: what do rising rates mean for banks? Well, it’s both very important & not that simple, so here’s a sho	2.1×	0	425	79	312
66	Oct 16, '19	There is a lot of debate going on about what negative interest rates mean for banks and how it’s bad, but (life) insurers are often forgotten. So here’s a thread about this because	2.1×	0	498	165	137
67	Apr 29, '25	The only upside of the Spanish blackout is reading about grid frequency, grid inertia, rotational energy, etc, and discovering how fascinating this topic is.	2.1×	27k	441	51	33
68	Aug 23, '22	Little bombshell in the EP's proposed amendments on Basel 4 for banks: several proposals to severely penalise fossil fuels. 1) Exposures to existing fossil fuel at 150% risk weight	2.0×	0	556	118	101
69	Apr 29, '22	Essential piece of research from Barclays today, on the economic impact of stopping the flow of Russian gas. Do read it, but if you can't, here's a summary 🧵	1.9×	0	460	129	167
70	Sep 28, '22	Today's the sale of 5bn£ tap of 2053 Gilt. It was planned for mid Sept but postponed after the queen's death (weird if you ask me) Since then, you might have noticed slight market	1.9×	0	577	162	35
71	Dec 11, '22	I think i know what happened in the very last minutes of that France England game yesterday, and that dramatic penalty miss. Hear me out, because it’s been a fascinating psychology	1.8×	0	621	85	70
72	Mar 21, '22	But more importantly, finding a way to close this loophole would be a massive blow to Russia’s economy – because so far, sanctions are only partially working.	1.7×	0	681	111	19
73	Mar 21, '22	If you look at the currency balance of Russia, the picture is pretty clear: even if the stock is frozen, the flow is still pretty much positive for Russia, so they still have all t	1.6×	0	644	132	19
74	Jul 7, '22	Eurocrisis veterans will remember that back in the days, Italy & Spain were basically in the same boat. Now that we're discussing fragmentation risk again, it's worth pointing	1.5×	0	471	109	71
75	Jul 8, '21	I did an explainer of the ECB Policy review: If inflation goes down, ECB buys bonds. If inflation goes up, ECB buys bonds. We need to fight climate change, ECB buys bonds. You're w	1.5×	0	599	104	12
76	Mar 21, '22	And of course, 2. Trade hasn’t really stopped with Russia. We still sell them stuff (or China does) and they still sell us commodities and energy. We’ve embargoed Vuitton handbags	1.3×	0	641	60	7
77	Nov 19, '22	To be honest I didn't expect the CFA franc conspiracy theory to pop up in mainstream European politics	1.3×	0	521	36	67
78	Mar 21, '22	So my final take is the following: the way the sanctions system is designed, the CBR can pretty much “outsource” its FX management to private sector entities. And there are, ultima	1.2×	0	490	92	13
79	Mar 21, '22	But first, I wanted to check if screen prices are genuine – so I called a dealer and tried to sell a bit of RUB. At first, it felt like I was trying to sell him child porn! But eve	1.2×	0	609	27	14
80	Mar 21, '22	So it leaves us with only 1 option (which btw is the logical one): the exporters sell to the CBR and the CBR injects it in the system – via a non-sanctioned bank – when required by	1.1×	0	471	65	12
81	Dec 7, '22	I think Bloomberg just killed all ESG data providers with its new ESG function release this morning. Truly impressive stuff. The master of data strikes again?	1.1×	0	377	23	75
82	Mar 21, '22	@Alea_ This means that CBR USD accounts that are not at a US entity are not explicitly prohibited by OFAC restrictions. Imagine the following: CBR has a USD acct at Gazprombank, Ga	1.0×	0	429	61	17
83	Mar 21, '22	Being a correspondent means that you only transfer money from one bank to another, you don't really know who the ultimate clients are As nicely summarised in this chart by Medioban	1.0×	0	408	45	42
84	Mar 16, '21	I can't believe my 18 year old son living in the US will be vaccinated before my 84 year old mum living in France 😭	1.0×	0	444	51	6
85	Apr 21, '22	If you're an investor & not French, this is all you need to know about the debate between Macron & LePen - macron was arrogant but French ppl always are - le pen was shit b	1.0×	0	433	47	8
86	Dec 19, '21	Several explanations: - vaccines (but people are still in ICU though) - treatment has drastically improved (under-reported if this is the case) - severities of the variants are dif	1.0×	0	461	22	5
87	Mar 21, '22	@dsquareddigest @Alea_ @PaulJDavies @RobinBrooksIIF And the one person who could actually do something about it : @Brad_Setser	1.0×	0	468	31	12
88	Mar 21, '22	To manage the FX crisis, Poutine passed a rather smart decree saying that all exporters in Russia have to sell withing three days their hard FX in exchange for Rubles:	1.0×	0	443	43	13
89	Mar 21, '22	So, it does look like RUB recovered a big chunk of the drop. How is it possible if all of Russia’s FX reserves are frozen? Let’s dig.	1.0×	0	495	29	5
90	Mar 21, '22	But the story doesn’t stop here, far from it. Because, as @PaulJDavies pointed out this weekend, a mystery remains: haven’t we blocked Russia’s FX USD reserves precisely so that th	0.9×	0	447	36	10
91	Mar 21, '22	True, not all reserves are frozen, but it does not seem like Russia is selling its gold and almost all transactions (including FX) with the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) have been p	0.9×	0	453	23	8
92	Mar 21, '22	Two things worth pointing out: 1. Sorry for the oversimplification, but you care about FX only because of international trade. If we discovered the people on Mars have a currency,	0.9×	0	447	23	6
93	Mar 21, '22	This network is hiding the CBR transactions. It doesn’t mean that they’re totally legal and that there is no risk. US sanctions for correspondent banks are a very tricky topic. See	0.9×	0	378	44	15
94	Feb 26, '22	Swift is to Russia what R* was to Covid 🙄 nobody has a clue what it really is, but it feels good to talk about it like you're an expert	0.9×	0	397	37	7
95	Mar 21, '22	that are reasonably designed to detect and report instances of money laundering through those accounts.” and OCC has issued rather strict guidelines on this. Basically if the whole	0.8×	0	296	84	6
96	Mar 21, '22	I mean, BNP, a French bank, paid a 9bn$ fine precisely because of this! The reason is that every single USD out there is ultimately settled in the US (at the NY Fed iirc) by Americ	0.8×	0	380	41	8
97	Mar 21, '22	So even the USD held by the CBR is ultimately somehow a claim on the Fed – with many intermediaries. And this is where is the loophole that allows the CBR to continue the USD. As @	0.8×	0	357	41	9
98	Feb 21, '25	@chambergeot17 On ne peut pas payer un dividende avec une boîte qui ne gagne pas d'argent et d'ailleurs on ne peut souvent même pas se payer un gros salaire.	0.8×	10k	393	1	3
99	Mar 21, '22	But wait: does this mean that the CBR is still playing with USDs? Isn’t it supposed to be sanctioned? Sure, it's weird to imagine that the US can sanction anyone in the world just	0.8×	0	353	36	6
100	Mar 21, '22	My 2nd guess was a non-sanctioned bank (e.g. Gazprombank) which would then sell it to an importer. But this is tricky because the importer and the exporter will not use same amount	0.7×	0	342	22	3

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