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Jason Furman

@jasonfurman340k followers

Professor @Harvard, Director @HarvardBizGov, Senior Fellow @PIIE, teaches Ec10, words @nytopinion, was Chair of Pres Obama's CEA. Some posts may be educational.

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Oct 16
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Posts 86 posts
#DatePost↓ OutlierViewsLikesRepostsBookmarks
1Apr 4, '25One of these men did not attend the inauguration.79.4×3.8M80k4.7k2.9k
2Feb 1, '25Hard to argue with the WSJ editorial page.70.5×3.4M91k7.8k2.4k
3Aug 31, '24I like the Biden-Harris proposal to tax unrealized capital gains. For any given level of capital taxation it's more efficient & fair to tax unrealized gains, reduces lock in &a30.5×1.5M1.2k163374
4Oct 10, '25The other day a student asked me about the prevalence of insider trading in prediction markets. I now have an answer.26.4×1.3M12k6471.5k
5Oct 11, '23I am reassured by the widespread condemnation of the statement by the Harvard Palestine Solidarity Group. But I am appalled by people threatening individual students. I'm even more25×1.2M2.2k315171
6Oct 10, '23In my classes, I strive to create an inclusive environment for all perspectives. That's partly why I avoid public statements outside my lane. But as a member of the Harvard communi23.2×1.1M2.2k223144
7Nov 3, '25At a 1% real rate of return the vampire would have $7T today.20.5×974k9.1k149419
8Apr 7, '25This is now much worse than a Liz Truss moment. After Truss unleashed chaos in UK markets she pulled back part of her proposal then fired her Chancellor & then pulled back the 17.4×826k10k1.1k473
9Sep 29, '24Craziest (and most infuriating) chart I saw this past week: Germany's monthly exports of goods purportedly to Kyrgyzstan. From @robin_j_brooks.15×714k5.7k1.1k593
10Mar 2, '25Torn as to whether this is more dumb or more corrupt.14.3×680k4.7k557193
11Feb 10, '25I have a new piece in @ForeignAffairs titled, "The Post-Neoliberal Delusion and the Tragedy of Bidenomics". They were generous about giving me a lot of words but were less generous13.8×657k1.5k2501.4k
12Oct 6, '23First reaction to jobs numbers: Shock Second reaction: Nervousness Further reflection: This could be quite good 336K jobs, participation remains high, wage growth moderated further13.6×647k1.9k333127
13Apr 9, '25I don't think people realize that in important respects tariffs are now higher & more inflationary than what was announced on last Wednesday. Since then we've gone from 54% to 13.4×636k6.2k1.4k503
14Feb 8, '25This is a favorable development. Big businesses generally pay better, do more training, engage less in wage theft and other abuses and have more upward mobility.12.7×603k1.4k136275
15Aug 24, '22Pouring roughly half trillion dollars of gasoline on the inflationary fire that is already burning is reckless. Doing it while going well beyond one campaign promise ($10K of stude11.6×012k2.6k559
16Nov 6, '24The macroeconomy is strong--high growth, low unemployment, falling inflation--the best of any advanced economy. But there was a reluctance to present/understand how families were s11.2×534k2.1k327650
17Jan 3, '25President Biden claiming Japan's investment in an American steel company is a threat to national security is a pathetic and craven cave to special interests that will make America 10.7×508k3.1k503164
18Nov 7, '24I know many skeptics of prediction markets. I don't have an ideological faith in them (OK, maybe quasi ideological). But the empirical evidence is they have worked really, really, 10.5×499k1.6k277861
19Aug 11, '25I don’t think I have ever publicly criticized any Presidential nominee before. But E.J. Antoni is completely unqualified to be BLS Commissioner. He is an extreme partisan and does 10.3×490k6.1k1.1k310
20Mar 10, '25If you are implementing a credible plan that entails short-term pain for long-term gain the stock market will go up not down.10.0×474k5.6k740259
21Dec 10, '23I really hope we don't let donors & politicians dictate who leads our school. Claudine Gay denounced calling for genocide before the hearing. She denounced it in the hearing. A9.5×453k2k262169
22Aug 1, '25This is awful. Reliable economic data is a key strength of the US economy. When Argentina and Greece faked economic data it contributed to major crises. I don't think Trump will be8.7×415k3.1k658199
23Nov 26, '24Tariffs don’t *always* lead to inflation.8.6×411k1.3k113155
24Mar 12, '20What policy will provide relief to: a. A waiter who is losing most of his tips b. A Lyft driver who is losing many of her trips c. A person who self quarantines without pay d. Some7.8×010k2.1k73
25Sep 14, '24This is interesting. (From Baumol, Blinder and Solow textbook.)7.6×362k2.1k436454
26Nov 2, '21My guess is the majority of Americans with a net worth of $50 to $300 million would get a tax cut under the Build Back Better plan with a full repeal of SALT. The bill would do mor7.4×09.6k1.6k174
27Apr 9, '25Today's class wasn't intended to be this timely. I'll try to do a thread with the slides later today or this week.7.3×347k5.1k3972.2k
28Apr 12, '25Notably President Trump walked away from a deal where three of these four countries would have gotten rid of virtually all of their US tariffs and trade barriers. It was called TPP6.9×326k3.6k643182
29Mar 28, '25Watching this brought a tear to my eyes. This should be our closest, best relationship in the world. Instead we're blowing it up in pursuit of higher priced cars and fewer, worse j6.5×311k3.7k398124
30Mar 11, '25I worry that many large endowment and pension fund managers won't get the joke.6.5×310k2.2k246512
31Mar 11, '25Short-run pain: Make consumers stop buying foreign toasters. Long-run suffering: Eventually America starts making toasters! But they're more expensive & the jobs making them ar6.4×305k3.1k455161
32Nov 29, '20President Biden will have an economic dream team. I am thrilled for him, for them, and most importantly, for the country. One tweet for each member, starting with the most importan6.1×08.8k1k235
33Jun 14, '23Could people who understand pop music better than I do explain to me why Taylor Swift increases GDP but Beyoncé increases inflation?6.0×288k1.4k14561
34Apr 30, '25Real GDP fell at a 0.3% annual rate in Q1. The underlying numbers are very extreme--with an enormous increase in imports and inventories. My preferred measure of "core GDP" a bette6.0×285k1.5k254399
35May 21, '25I'm not sure I've ever seen such a brutal distributional analysis from CBO. This contrasts the Medicaid and SNAP cuts for the lowest decile with the tax cuts for the top decile.5.8×275k1.4k768250
36Jul 11, '24Amazing inflation data for June!!! A big slowdown in shelter growth meant that core was up only 0.1% (0.8% annual rate). That + transitory gasoline decline drove headline down 0.1%5.7×272k1.2k397101
37Aug 6, '21I have yet to find a blemish in this jobs report. I've never before seen such a wonderful set of economic data: --Job gains in most sectors --Big decline in unemployment rate, even5.6×06.6k1.6k109
38Oct 30, '24Another strong GDP report (2.8% in Q3) pushes real GDP even further above the pre-pandemic forecast.5.0×235k1.7k685142
39Jun 26, '17Increased net premium paid (for worse plan) for a 64-year old making $56,800: $11,600 Tax cut for a 65-year old making $1,000,000: $11,6004.6×02.7k2.7k0
40Jan 14, '21The Biden plan is the most impressive and ambitious child poverty plan ever in the United States. This would not just help in the short run but have long-run mobility benefits as w4.1×05.6k1.1k36
41Mar 10, '20The idea that Harvard switch to online classes seemed like an overreaction 5 days ago. Today we made the obviously right decision to ask our undergraduates not to return after spri4.0×04.7k1k125
42Aug 2, '25Former BLS Commissioner. Was appointed by President Trump. And long-standing Heritage Foundation before that. I have yet to see a single economist (not working for the Trump admini3.8×180k2.2k410104
43Mar 20, '20This is the best piece I've read on the epidemiology of the pandemic, including a stab at what a cost-benefit analysis might look like towards the end, filling in the numbers on th3.5×02.5k1.4k408
44Mar 26, '20The most important economics paper released so far today: "Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu"3.2×02.8k1.3k248
45Oct 14, '21Most of the economic problems we're facing (inflation, supply chains, etc.) are high class problems. We wouldn't have had them if the unemployment rate was still 10 percent. We wou3.1×01.3k22662
46Aug 19, '22Student loan relief is not free. It would be paid for. Part of it would be paid for by the 87% of Americans who do not benefit but lose out from inflation. Part of it would be paid3.1×02.7k377135
48Jun 5, '20You can 100% discount the possibility that Trump got to the BLS. Not 98% discount, not 99.9% discount, but 100% discount. BLS has 2,400 career staff of enormous integrity and one p3.0×03.1k73459
49Nov 11, '22Genuine question: How did people think that FTX was funding the 8% interest it was paying on Bitcoin deposits if it was not using its customers funds for something? What was the be3.0×04.4k327122
50Mar 6, '25Every time you hear someone belittle cheap goods substitute lower wages and ask how it sounds. Critics of free trade argue we should care about workers & not just cheap goods. 2.7×130k1.2k279125
51Sep 18, '24Text from my teenage daughter on my FOMC call.2.7×128k1.5k4733
52Nov 16, '20Student loan debt forgiveness likely has a multiplier close to zero. Forgiveness is taxable. If this negative cash flow effect outweighs interest savings would even be net negative2.7×02.3k345236
53Sep 1, '22Worth remembering the vicious abuse that @ProfEmilyOster & others who made this argument were subjected to. Then think about other debates like that. You're not hearing from a 2.6×03.1k526113
54May 5, '20This might be the lowest point in the 74 year history of the Council of Economic Advisers. The stakes on the epidemiological questions are so high that this utterly superficial and2.6×02.7k88491
55Jul 14, '22If you're not a little confused about the economy you're not paying attention. Three of many historically large disconnects in the data: 1. Jobs growing & GDP contracting 2. Pr2.4×02.7k545227
56Jan 27, '22GDP growth dramatically outpaced forecasts made a year ago. Most forecasters expected the economy to grow 3 to 4 percent this year. Instead it has grown 5.5 percent. That is more t2.3×02.2k86082
57Mar 13, '17After-tax premium increase for 64 year old making $26,500: $12,900 Tax cut for 64 year old making $1,000,000: $12,9002.3×01.3k1.4k0
58Jun 9, '22I don’t understand how the formula crisis is about capitalism: —The govt purchases half the product in a way that entrenches market power. —The govt closed a major plant. —The govt2.3×02.8k53395
59Jun 21, '22Whatever you thought of the merits of a gas tax holiday in February it is a worse idea now. Refineries are even more constrained now so supply is nearly fully inelastic. Most of th2.1×02.3k54194
60Jun 1, '18You should have gotten the employment numbers from the Council of Economic Advisers yesterday. And if this tweet is conveying inside information about a particularly good jobs numb1.9×02k6904
61Apr 9, '25If these tariffs stay in effect for the rest of the year the chances of recession are 104%.1.9×92k1.8k23048
62Oct 13, '22Preparing for class and just learned that the "pink tax" seems to be a myth. Identical (or nearly identical) goods marketed to women are, if anything, slightly cheaper on average t1.9×01.8k317459
64Aug 5, '22Uncomfortably hot jobs report. 528K jobs added & unemployment rate falls to 3.5%. What worries me re inflation is avg hourly earnings were up at a 5.8% ar in July. June revised1.7×01.2k194106
66Nov 5, '21Just the value of this 7.5K increase to the original $72.5K cap is larger than the entire child tax credit expansion for a middle-class family with two children. And this increase 1.7×01.8k47738
68Apr 14, '20Everything who thinks the pandemic will change everything forever should contemplate this.1.6×01.6k46088
69Feb 7, '18I consider myself a deficit dove. I'm comfortable with 3% GDP deficits--and higher in downturns. I don't think deficit reduction should be our top priority. But, deliberately sendi1.6×01.6k6360
71Mar 12, '20The United States has only 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people. Italy has 3.2 beds per 1,000. We are moving rapidly towards a massive shortage: expanding hospitals, getting more bed1.5×01.1k61864
72Jul 27, '22The Inflation Reduction Act is what the country needs right now--helping to address one of our biggest long-run challenges (climate change) while making progress on our biggest sho1.4×01.6k375121
73May 8, '20Will Sweden's strategy work to grow its economy? The forecasters at the European Commission appear not to think so. Deaths so far per 1 million population: Sweden: 314 Denmark: 90 1.4×01.1k57781
74Mar 26, '22This is a landmark proposal from President Biden, a minimum tax that also applies to unrealized gains—as a prepayment against future capital gains. This should get serious consider1.4×01.4k33447
75Jul 8, '22In the last two quarters: GDP: -1% (assuming GDP Now is correct, a big assumption) Employment: +2% We have never seen a disconnect like that before in the data (available since 1941.3×01.5k228160
76Jun 16, '21The federal minimum wage has been cut 2% in inflation-adjusted terms so far this year. It has been cut 20% in inflation-adjusted terms since it was last increased in 2009. It would1.3×01.6k36918
78Apr 18, '18South Korea is not in TPP.1.2×01.3k4251
79Jul 29, '21The US economy has grown almost as much in six months as many major forecasters expected for the entire year (pre-American Rescue Plan forecasts). The economy is rapidly outpacing 1.1×01.1k35745
80Apr 29, '20If you had told me we would have a massive pandemic I would have predicted an increase in health spending. Shows why you shouldn't listen to me. Health spending down 4.9% in Q1 (no1.1×01.2k32925
81Dec 8, '21Part of the reason people might be upset is that this is not true. Real wages are down ~1% since the pandemic. Your data suffer from composition bias: about 5m generally lower-wage1.1×01.3k27377
82Aug 4, '21The crypto industry claims that if they were subject to basic tax compliance measures they would cease to exist. What does that say about the desirability of the existence of the i1.1×01.2k18621
83Dec 13, '22Terrific CPI report. Can't do much commentary but wanted to share charts so you can see the data yourself. Here is core CPI (i.e., excluding volatile food and energy).1.1×01.1k251111
84Jul 26, '19I try not to troll but there is a limit to my willpower.1.0×01.3k20315
85Oct 24, '22The best feasible step Democrats could take this year to dramatically reduce macroeconomic tail risks would be to eliminate the debt limit. The odds of something worse than the 2011.0×01.3k22331
86Aug 15, '21I am beyond thrilled the President Biden is taking the long overdue step to adjust the Thrift Food Plan to be in line with the increased cost of healthy food. This is a large advan1.0×01.3k28828
87Jan 27, '21Getting everyone to switch from Bitcoin to Gamestop would be a big improvement for climate change.1.0×01.5k16810
88Mar 31, '21Overall I quite like the American Jobs Plan. It is a serious proposal that would help increase economic growth, ensure growth was more fair, and raise additional revenue in a broad1.0×01.1k187140
89Mar 18, '19Alan Krueger taught me about economic policy for more than two decades. His convincing empirical research on the most important questions is a lasting legacy. A devastating loss.1.0×01.2k27013
91Feb 1, '18The economist in me loves that Spirit Airways charged me $49 for a ticket and $55 for a carry-on bag. But there is a lot more inside me than just an economist.1.0×01.4k2030
93Mar 5, '21Big picture on the jobs number: we are still 11.9 million jobs short of trend. February was OK but at that pace would take 4-1/2 years to recover. We need more like 1m jobs a month0.9×01.1k2537
97Aug 11, '22If the economy adds zero jobs in August what is the best way to describe the jobs situation: *Zero jobs added in August *5.6m jobs added over the last year0.8×01.1k8825

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