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Dwarkesh Patel

@dwarkesh_sp280k followers

Host of @dwarkeshpodcast

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Posts 101 posts
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1Aug 29Over the course of 3 months at OpenAI, 3 consecutive secret AI civilizations got started, then got wiped out, only to reemerge from the predecessor’s ashes. This culminated in the 370×14.5M22k3.3k33k
2Oct 17, '25The @karpathy interview 0:00:00 – AGI is still a decade away 0:30:33 – LLM cognitive deficits 0:40:53 – RL is terrible 0:50:26 – How do humans learn? 1:07:13 – AGI will blend into 275×10.8M18k2.9k25k
3Nov 21, '23I still haven't heard a good answer to this question, on or off the podcast. AI researchers often tell me, "Don't worry bout it, scale solves this." But what is the rebuttal to som84.7×3.3M7.8k6672.7k
4Jun 4, '24.@leopoldasch on: - the trillion dollar cluster - unhobblings + scaling = 2027 AGI - CCP espionage at AI labs - leaving OpenAI and starting an AGI investment firm - dangers of outs83.3×3.3M2.7k3014.9k
5Sep 26, '25.@RichardSSutton, father of reinforcement learning, doesn’t think LLMs are bitter-lesson-pilled. My steel man of Richard’s position: we need some new architecture to enable continu78.9×3.1M4.4k6154.3k
6Jul 25, '24My family moved to the US when I was 8, but by the time I turned 20, my dad was still on an H1B (waiting to get processed for a green card). Once I turned 21, I would age out as hi58.4×2.3M9.9k1.1k1.6k
7Feb 19, '25.@satyanadella on: - why he doesn’t believe in AGI but does believe in 10% economic growth - Microsoft’s new topological qubit breakthrough and gaming world models - whether Office57.8×2.3M6.1k7646.1k
8Oct 13, '25Does everyone secretly feel that if you went back you to college now, you could learn so much faster, better, and deeper? And that your 18 year old self kinda wasted the opportunit57.5×2.3M26k1.2k2.2k
9Jun 26, '24Tony Blair explains the 3 key decisions Lee Kuan Yew took that made Singapore rich. “Each one of them now seems obvious. Each one at the time was deeply contested.”54.6×2.1M11k2.9k6.9k
10Nov 12, '25.@satyanadella gave me and @dylan522p an exclusive tour of Fairwater 2, the most powerful AI datacenter in the world. We then chatted through Satya's vision for Microsoft in a worl48.4×1.9M3.7k5722.3k
11Aug 15, '25.@CJHandmer on how to feed the AIs. 0:00:00 – Why doesn’t China win by default 0:08:28 – Why hyperscalers choose natural gas over solar 0:18:01 – Solar's astonishing learning rates35.9×1.4M2.8k4641.8k
12Jan 9, '25I hassled @tylercowen about why he doesn't expect explosive economic growth from AGI. How could we possibly add 100 billion extra workers and only get 0.5% more growth? Also featur33.8×1.3M2.5k2163k
13Feb 8, '25This question is even more puzzling and salient given the existence of Deep Research31.4×1.2M3.6k2381.3k
14Oct 17, '25The most interesting part for me is where @karpathy describes why LLMs aren't able to learn like humans. As you would expect, he comes up with a wonderfully evocative phrase to des26.9×1.1M5.2k7033.8k
15Dec 5, '23I haven’t had you on my podcast because your takes don’t make much sense to me and don’t seem well thought out. But I’m happy to debate you. @ManifoldMarkets has been DMing you try26.7×1M1.2k19165
16Jan 21, '25Curtis Yarvin is mistaken when he says that Apple can produce iPhones because it's a monarchy. There are millions of firms ("monarchies") in the world that can't produce anything n23.7×930k4.8k4001.2k
17Nov 25, '24It’s funny how China has basically the inverse problem as America. We subsidize demand and restrict supply. They subsidize supply and restrict demand. We can’t rebuild fallen bridg23.6×926k12k7542.2k
18Jun 2, '25New blog post where I explain why I disagree with this, and why I have slightly longer timelines to AGI than many of my guests. I think continual learning is a huge bottleneck to t23.3×913k1.3k89747
19Jan 31, '25New post Everyone is sleeping on the *collective* advantages AIs will have, which have nothing to do with raw IQ - they can be copied, distilled, merged, scaled, and evolved in way22.6×886k3.1k3273k
20Apr 18, '24Zuck on: - Llama 3 - open sourcing towards AGI - custom silicon, synthetic data, & energy constraints on scaling - Caeser Augustus, intelligence explosion, bioweapons, $10b mod22.2×872k3.2k3342.4k
21Oct 3, '23On the odds of a Taiwan invasion & how the CCP thinks w. Naval War College historian Sally Paine Full episode out tomorrow: "the West learned that you read improbable speeches ... 21×822k1.8k2031.1k
22Jul 1, '25On a viewer-minute adjusted basis, I host the Sarah Paine podcast, where I sometimes also talk about AI. I'm very excited to announce a new 6-part in-person lecture series with her20.7×811k2.6k60543
23Aug 10, '23.@realGeorgeHotz and @ESYudkowsky will discuss AI safety and acceleration Live next Tuesday, Aug 15, at 2 PM Pacific20.3×797k1.4k142304
24Nov 13, '23Dominic Cummings: "Imagine if Steve Jobs or Tim Cook or Patrick Collison actually spent a large part of their day just doing photo ops. You have a person whose time is the single m19.1×750k2.3k252690
25Nov 11, '25Tomorrow16.9×661k5.5k100331
26Apr 20, '25Unreasonably effective writing advice: "What are you trying to say here? Okay, just write that."16.7×654k3.2k1901.1k
27Sep 7, '25I find it frustrating that almost every nonfiction book is basically just a history lesson, even if it's nominally about some science/tech/policy topic. Nobody will just explain ho15.4×603k5.6k184931
28Aug 29, '24I had no idea how wild the story of human evolution was before chatting with the geneticist of ancient DNA David Reich. Human history has been again and again a story of one group 15.4×602k2.6k3563.5k
29Aug 7, '25Just $1 can help avert 10 years of farmed animal suffering. I decided to give $250,000 as a donation match to @farmkind_giving after learning about the outsized opportunities to he15.1×591k1.3k160318
30Nov 13, '24The @gwern interview. 0:00:00 – Anonymity 0:01:09 – Automating Steve Jobs 0:04:38 – Isaac Newton's theory of progress 0:06:36 – Grand theory of intelligence 0:10:39 – Seeing scalin15×587k2.6k2832.5k
31Apr 1, '24How @_sholtodouglas got scouted by Google DeepMind: “Every night from 10 PM till 2 AM, I would do my own research. @jekbradbury saw some of my questions online and was like, ‘I tho14.6×571k1.5k1121.1k
32Feb 12, '25The @JeffDean & @NoamShazeer episode. We talk about 25 years at Google, from PageRank to MapReduce to the Transformer to MoEs to AlphaChip – and soon to ASI. My favorite part was J13.9×546k1.9k2311.4k
33Mar 25, '25I'm so pleased to present a new book with @stripepress: "The Scaling Era: An Oral History of AI, 2019-2025." Over the last few years, I interviewed the key people thinking about AI13.8×541k3.3k2601.7k
34Feb 19, '25Kids, don't underestimate the power of a cold email. (From @Microsoft's YouTube channel - link below)13.6×534k6.5k3472.2k
35Aug 6, '25Before I interviewed @Lewis_Bollard, I had assumed that factory farming was on its way out (especially given new tech like cultivated meat around the corner). Unfortunately this is13.5×528k1.4k87435
36Feb 20, '24"I wonder for people in their 20s if they shouldn't go to San Francisco. The entrepreneurs are held in excessively high regard in my view. I think that San Francisco doesn't really13.4×526k1.6k103699
37Feb 19, '25.@satyanadella shows me the first (and currently only) Majorana 1 quantum computing chip13.3×521k5.3k5571.3k
38May 30, '25I asked Victor Shih this question - why has the Chinese stock market been flat for so long despite the economy growing so fast? This puzzle is explained via China's system of finan12.9×506k2.6k3101.5k
39Nov 13, '25Sam Altman suggested that OpenAI could reach $100B in revenue by 2027. Anthropic reportedly forecasted $70 billion in revenue by 2028. Satya reacts to these projections.12.9×504k2.4k142958
40Oct 16, '25Tomorrow11.7×458k9.6k214450
41Mar 8, '25“Had Mao died in 1956, his achievements would have been immortal. Had he died in 1966, he would still have been a great man but flawed. But he died in 1976. Alas, what can one say?11.2×440k4.6k194888
42Jun 11, '25Japan was richer per capita than the US in the late 1980s. Today it sits at the bottom among developed countries. How does an economic superpower fall this far and never recover? K10.9×427k3k4101.8k
43Sep 16, '25I sometimes help my friends rewrite their announcements/launches/blog posts for Twitter. Sharing what ends up commonly helpful. 90% of my value ends up being just getting them to s10.9×427k2.2k1012.3k
44May 28, '25Has someone come up with a great prompt for socratic tutoring? Such that the model keeps asking you probing questions which reveal how superficial your understanding is, and then h10.9×426k4.1k1953.8k
45Jun 18, '25China spent 25 years failing to build a globally competitive domestic car industry through hundreds of billions of dollars of subsidies and forced partnerships. Then they tried som10.8×425k2.7k3681k
46Apr 1, '25tfw @gwern casually articulates a more insightful framework for thinking about your life's work than you've ever sketched out yourself.10.7×421k4.1k1454.2k
47Aug 27, '24I have been obsessed with what the geneticist David Reich told me in our interview together. The story of human evolution we're now learning from new evidence is so crazy. 70,000 y10.7×420k2.4k1872k
48Dec 27, '24Notes on visiting China. On scale, construction, youngsters, public opinion, censorship, tech, and AI. Link below.10.7×418k1.8k821.1k
49Oct 2, '25Boy do you guys have a lot of thoughts about the @RichardSSutton interview. I’ve been thinking about it myself. I have a better understanding of Sutton’s perspective now than I did10.6×415k1.9k1572k
50Oct 21, '25Wanted to get better intuitions for how RL works on LLMs. So I wrote a simple script to teach Nanochat to add 5 digit numbers. I was surprised at how fast it learned. Until I looke10.5×410k1.6k491.1k
51Apr 3, '25The @slatestarcodex & @DKokotajlo episode. Scott and Daniel break down every month from now until the 2027 intelligence explosion. Misaligned hive minds, Xi and Trump waking up, au9.3×364k1.6k1941.4k
52Jul 5, '24Tony Blair's single biggest piece of advice to Labour once they win the election:9.1×357k1.2k221567
53Sep 30, '24Liang Mong Song was TSMC's renegade genius. He gets frustrated with the leadership, so he defects to South Korea and single handedly pushes Samsung to overtake TSMC. Then SMIC, Chi8.9×350k2.2k2121.4k
54Sep 30, '25This was really interesting. The goal was to try and predict prices a minute out from an order book of previous bids and asks. Of course, my very simple linear model obviously woul8.7×341k2k822.2k
55Mar 14, '24Amazon's new 1000MW nuclear powered datacenter campus. Dario was right lol From our Aug 2023 interview: "Dario Amodei 01:14:36: There was a running joke that the way building AGI w8.6×339k1.7k167417
56Jan 17, '23Google Books on steroids Search through the contents of 1000s of books! AI semantic search finds the most relevant passages & GPT writes a summary Textbooks, classics, historie8.4×328k1.5k1971k
57Apr 1, '24I’m grateful to have what is probably the smartest audience in the world for a show as big as mine. If you would like to advertise on my show, please fill out the form in the link 8.2×322k1.5k44373
58Oct 14, '25View post on X8.0×312k2.1k23168
59Jun 26, '24Tony Blair on: - What he tells the dozens of world leaders who come seek advice from him - How much of a PM’s time is actually spent governing - What AI’s July 1914 moment will loo7.8×308k1.5k2501.5k
60Aug 8, '25Honestly the thing that motivated me to do this episode was learning that there's less than $200M/year of smart philanthropy on factory farming - GLOBALLY. Just to explain how fuck7.8×307k1.8k194444
61May 17, '25People underrate how big a bottleneck inference compute will be. Especially if you have short timelines. There's currently about 10 million H100 equivalents in the world. By some e7.8×305k1.3k151696
62Jun 6, '25LLMs are 5/10 writers. So the fact that you can reliably improve on the explanations in papers and books by asking an LLM to summarize them is a huge condemnation of academic writi7.1×280k2.3k124267
63Jun 2, '25Sometimes people say that even if all AI progress totally stopped, the systems of today would still be economically transformative. I disagree. The reason that the Fortune 500 aren6.5×255k1.5k69731
64Apr 25, '25I regret to inform you that blocking Twitter and YouTube on your phone + work computer indeed improves your productivity, sleep, and how you spend your free time.6.5×254k5.1k239777
65Jan 21, '25.@dylan522p called it in Oct 2024.6.4×252k2k116617
66Sep 25, '25Read CH 1, 2, and 3 of this book. Go into debt if you have to.6.4×251k2.2k1032.9k
67Apr 4, '25In 2 weeks, I’m going to be releasing an episode with 2 guests who have 2045+ timelines, are skeptical of the whole “alignment” framework, and don’t think an intelligence explosion6.4×250k2.6k52339
68Sep 5, '24Not sure I agree that hosting a podcast qualifies me as one of the 100 most influential people in AI haha. But I'm honored!6.2×244k1.8k20120
69Nov 13, '25Microsoft makes software for humans doing work. Office and 365 generate ~$100B in revenue/year. I asked @satyanadella, what will happen to Microsoft as we move towards a world wher6.2×242k1.6k156939
70Apr 20, '24Every time I fail a spaced repetition review for a card which I remember thinking was almost too trivial to write down, I become more convinced that everything I read without makin5.8×229k1.3k52660
71Mar 16, '25Made myself a research tool Claude makes flash cards from passages I highlight Reduces the friction of using spaced repetition. Sharing in case helpful to you! generateflash dot ca5.8×228k1.9k771.7k
72Apr 19, '24Will Zuck open source the $10 billion model?5.8×228k1.7k134315
73Mar 3, '25.@slatestarcodex's answer. I actually agree with this. But if making new connections and discoveries is intrinsically an NP-hard problem, then it's also less likely that some super5.8×226k1.5k60693
74Apr 21, '25New blog post: Questions about the future of AI A 6,000-word clusterfuck of considerations about economics, history, training, investment, and more. Thread of select questions belo5.7×223k1.3k1071.6k
75Feb 26, '25View post on X5.6×220k3k177936
76Mar 20, '25Who is the best blogger in China? Who is China's Scott Alexander or Gwern or Tyler?5.6×218k1.4k47890
77Jun 26, '25It's funny how strong the causation is between time in SF and short timelines. I've been traveling for 4 weeks, and I'm now up to median year 2036 for AGI.5.6×218k1.5k41217
78Jan 21, '25Liang Wenfeng, CEO of DeepSeek, has an open invite to my podcast. If you're in a position to relay this message to him, I appreciate it!5.5×215k3.5k113284
79Feb 19, '25.@satyanadella: The true AGI benchmark is whether we achieve 10% economic growth.5.2×205k1.4k117251
80Dec 8, '24Reading while constantly asking Claude questions is 2x harder and 4x more valuable. Bloom 2 Sigma on demand.4.5×177k1.7k74949
81Feb 19, '25On a Saturday!4.4×174k2k43196
82Dec 22, '24We’re way more patient in training human employees than AI employees. We will spend weeks onboarding a human employee and giving slow detailed feedback. But we won’t spend just a c4.3×168k1.8k89465
83Nov 16, '24View post on X4.2×166k1.8k4496
84Jul 17, '25Looking for an energy expert to interview on my podcast. I want to get in the weeds on what will happen the wild AI worlds. As AI actually becomes capable of substituting for human3.8×149k1.4k77434
85Aug 4, '25How exciting is my life? Identify the most interesting questions. Hunt down the smartest people in the world to answer them. Build a shadow university for myself, populated by some3.6×141k1.7k45544
86Jun 13, '25the internet is an interesting place3.6×140k1.7k26129
87Nov 26, '24An underrated benefit of democracy: Bad policies are often continued just because it’s too embarrassing for a regime to admit that it has been making a big mistake all along. This 3.4×135k1.6k95199
88Feb 24, '25View post on X3.4×134k4.1k59324
89Jul 15, '25Really interesting new @gwern essay: LLM Daydreaming - Proposal of how default mode networks for LLMs are an example of missing capabilities for search and novelty Btw, I know it's3.2×126k1.6k80979
90Feb 13, '25I studied computer science in college, but I wised up after I graduated, and transitioned to the more risk-averse conservative career of podcasting.3.2×124k2.3k42178
91Jul 29, '25Wikipedia is fucking incredible. Concise, so well organized and easy to read, frictionless rabbit holing, filled with concrete details (unlike many books, which are largely vacuous2.9×113k2.1k92214
92Oct 2, '24View post on X2.8×111k1.6k40188
93May 1, '25View post on X2.5×99k1.9k699
94Aug 9, '24View post on X2.5×97k2.9k2463
95Sep 3, '25Whoah. Father of reinforcement learning and this year's Turing Award winner @RichardSSutton. I'm shy.2.5×97k1.4k48199
96Oct 30, '22I read a lot of books for my podcast & blog. But often I can't finding the particular passage I'm looking for. Ctrl-F doesn't work unless you know the exact phrase. So I built 2.1×01.8k186872
97Feb 7, '25In the hypothetical world where I interview President @EmmanuelMacron next week, what should I ask him? PS he’s currently deciding whether to do this interview - if you have a chan1.8×70k1.4k2466
98Jan 25, '25500k! So much of the credit for the growth over the last year belongs to my wonderful editors, Conor, Aaron, and Ishan. Conor was a farmer in Argentina, Ishan a Freshman maths stud1.7×67k1.3k1442
99Sep 2, '25you either die a hero, or live long enough to get cooked in a @slatestarcodex parody blog post1.6×62k1.3k34139
100Aug 3, '22God grant me the serenity to delegate the things I cannot automate, the courage to automate the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.1.1×01.5k193116
101Apr 14, '22👀0.9×01.6k2865

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