David Shor

@davidshor83k followers

Head of Data Science at Blue Rose Research, based in NYC, originally from Miami. I try to elect Democrats. Views are my own. he/him🌹

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Posts 64 posts

#	Date	Post	↓ Outlier	Views	Likes	Reposts	Bookmarks
1	Feb 8, '25	Explicit antisemitic attitudes are now much more common among young voters - 18 year old registered voters are now ~5x more likely to say that they have an unfavorable view of the	112×	3.5M	5.6k	888	1.8k
2	Jan 4, '25	@semaforben @eriktorenberg People really underrate how weird this is. People who read the news and vote a lot swung toward Democrats in absolute terms. Trump won because people w	36.9×	1.2M	1.4k	316	355
3	May 6, '24	Israeli voters over the age of 60 are more than twice as likely to support the establishment of a Palestinian state than Israeli voters under the age of 30.	30.3×	957k	2.9k	469	643
4	Aug 2, '24	I spent some time today digging into the voting-center level results recently posted by the Venezuelan opposition () 1) Their dataset has ~81% coverage - doing some modeling to ext	23.3×	736k	1.1k	408	119
5	Jan 26, '25	Republican Party-ID is higher than it’s been at any point in the previous 20 years	18.4×	581k	1.1k	132	171
6	Dec 5, '24	The immigrant piece of this is really important. If you take this ecological regression literally, voters born outside the US swung 23% pp against Democrats in 2024, 14% more than	18×	567k	551	94	195
7	Feb 17, '25	It would have surprised us all ten years ago that Republicans have empirically become the party of pimps and felons and people on welfare, while Democrats have become the party of	17.7×	558k	3.1k	267	464
8	Jan 20, '25	Zoomers care more about making money than any generation in at least 50 years	16.7×	527k	2.3k	154	431
9	Jun 19, '25	Even among American political consultants there is a massive gap in LLM usage between Democrats and Republicans.	15.5×	490k	568	73	159
10	Jan 21, '25	In Norway the gender gap in support for left wing parties among high-school aged teenagers doubled in size during covid, with the increase being mostly driven by a dramatic incre	15.5×	489k	1.4k	123	328
11	Jun 25, '25	@ZohranKMamdani is a great example of how far you can go if you genuinely center your campaign in an engaging way around the issue that voters overwhelmingly say in surveys they ca	14.9×	472k	992	116	136
12	Jul 9, '25	Adding this incredible chart from @DKThomp to the mix. There has been an enormous decline in in-person socialization that has corresponded with massive declines in mental wellbeing	13.4×	422k	1.2k	273	508
13	Dec 8, '24	@keithdorejel The fundemental coalitional fact of our time is that wealthy voters are more supportive of economic redistribution than the working class right now. That’s ideologica	12.8×	405k	889	127	161
14	Mar 18, '25	Excited to join @ezraklein to talk through what happened in 2024. There's a turnout story this cycle, but not the one we're used to talking about. With less-engaged and less-likely	12.3×	388k	1.4k	221	520
15	Mar 18, '25	A major shift we saw this cycle is that young people have gone from being one of the most progressive generations to one of the most conservative. Republicans won 18 year old white	11.8×	371k	901	166	203
16	Mar 12, '25	@tahrajirari The defining psychometric characteristics of leftist anti-Dems after you control for demographics/ideology are pretty anchored around wanting to rebel against authorit	11.5×	362k	656	80	252
17	Mar 27, '24	In the 35 years after the Roe ruling, the American public settled into a "wishy-washy" equilibrium on abortion where Roe v Wade was popular but most abortion restrictions were also	11.4×	358k	633	140	80
18	May 13, '25	Really great to see @RoKhanna stand up for tracking - removing advanced classes from schools is literally the single most unpopular policy we've ever polled	11.3×	357k	2.2k	279	159
19	Jun 20, '25	Very excited to announce that we’re hiring for an AI-focused software engineering roles (both general SWE and ML-infra) at Blue Rose! This is a great chance to work with giant nove	10.5×	331k	347	21	163
20	Nov 7, '24	@vanillaopinions I think an underrated part of it is basically that millenials had boomer parents while Gen Z had Gen X parents. I did a survey once asking people how their parents	9.8×	309k	4.6k	80	235
21	Sep 2, '25	The share of voters who support a woman's right to get an abortion "for any reason if she wants one" continued to increase in 2024 to 58%. 12 years ago it was 42%!	9.1×	286k	644	132	65
22	Dec 4, '24	Due to Trump's strong gains in hispanic, asian, and immigrant neighborhoods of all races, the partisan bias of the electoral college disappeared this year. The house and senate sti	8.9×	282k	567	93	154
23	Jul 12, '25	Non-white voters are rapidly trending toward right wing parties in Canada, the UK, and potentially other countries as well as the US.	8.8×	277k	752	146	279
24	Dec 8, '24	@keithdorejel One of the big reasons the Democratic Party moved to the left in the last decade is precisely because citizens united moved the balance of power toward rich donors an	8.5×	269k	1.1k	116	199
25	Dec 8, '24	@keithdorejel If you’re genuinely curious Gallup has been on this beat for decades. The main analytical error is that progressive institutions fund misleading polls for comms purpo	8.4×	266k	677	89	180
26	Oct 24, '25	Excited to announce we have more roles open for software engineers, ML engineers, and product! Come work with us!	7.3×	232k	654	19	286
27	Jan 24, '25	It doesn’t get clearer than this - congress should act and begin the process to enfranchise Puerto Rico’s 2.5 million voters.	7.2×	227k	2.4k	190	86
28	Mar 4, '25	I wanted to signal boost this very cool work exploiting staggered adoption of actblue to find that online donations have moved Democratic legislators to the left. The reality is an	7.1×	223k	668	99	208
29	Aug 9, '25	What the Republicans are doing right now on gerrymandering is despicable - but there should be real soul searching on the Dem side for why Democrats were so unfocused and epistemic	7.0×	222k	981	80	85
30	Feb 6, '24	There is a geopolitical realignment happening around the world of social conservatives increasingly aligning themselves toward authoritarian regimes like China and Russia, both in	6.5×	204k	643	127	114
31	May 28, '20	Post-MLK-assasination race riots reduced Democratic vote share in surrounding counties by 2%, which was enough to tip the 1968 election to Nixon. Non-violent protests increase De	6.4×	0	2k	437	417
32	Jan 25, '25	It’s become unfashionable to say, but there was a strong racial backlash to Obama becoming president in a way that was distinct from Trump. The biggest predictor of 04 to 12 swing	6.3×	200k	1.2k	123	310
33	Feb 10, '25	@eigenrobot One thing I'm kind of surprised by is that the gulf of America stuff polls terribly	6.2×	196k	741	114	61
34	Jul 1, '22	The loan shark prevention act, introduced by @AOC, caps credit card interest rates at 15% and was the second most popular policy we polled last year out (Prescription drug negotiat	5.9×	0	3.4k	429	65
35	Jan 11, '25	@RFishBlueFish @PoliticalKiwi The other fun tidbit is that we just reached the tipping point this year where 18 year old white women are more Democratic than 18 year old non-white	5.9×	185k	690	79	96
36	Aug 8, '24	One consequence of the world polarizing geopolitically around views on LGBT rights is that Latin America (which is ~ as socially liberal as the US) has become much more pro-America	5.8×	183k	1k	152	300
37	Jul 23, '21	For the record the negative impact of gerrymandering is ~20X larger than the theoretical upper bound of a massively well funded field program	5.7×	0	2.9k	686	56
38	Jun 18, '25	One of the most robust but counter intuitive findings in political science is that the more a president uses his bully-pulpit to advocate for something he cares about, the more the	5.6×	176k	587	75	122
39	Oct 5, '24	My personal example of this is that both my mom’s family and dad’s family both experienced discrimination as Moroccans in Israel, but my mom’s side was higher SES back in Morocco t	5.5×	175k	897	53	232
40	Jul 28, '25	Companies that hire consulting firms see large increases in labor productivity and also large increases of wages, with no decline in labor share or value added. It seems like a lot	5.3×	168k	1.1k	120	477
41	Jun 26, '25	One fun graph for pride: the single strongest demographic predictor I’ve found so far for predicting Cuomo vote share is what fraction of registered voters in the precinct identify	5.2×	164k	660	75	105
42	Sep 7, '25	Pretty wild that quadrupling GDP per capita over your term only gets you a three seat pick-up	5.1×	162k	2.4k	46	177
43	Jul 27, '25	It’s not just the ability to pass laws - the judiciary gets bleak very quickly. The republic legitimately might not survive.	5.0×	158k	1.4k	71	156
44	Jan 27, '25	This is probably just as true for Republicans and Trump as it was for us	4.7×	148k	1.6k	96	125
45	Apr 4, '22	Unless we see big structural changes in the Democratic party's coalition, then the modal outcome for 2024 is Donald Trump winning a filibuster-proof trifecta with a minority of t	4.3×	0	1.5k	318	218
46	Oct 1, '21	Super important thread - the popular narrative after 2012 that Obama won due to historic mobilization of young and non-white voters was completely wrong and the resulting consequen	4.1×	0	1.7k	359	341
47	Nov 5, '25	Zohran's relentless disciplined campaign was truly impressive - he brought every message and issue back to the cost of living and built a model for what bringing attention to a pos	4.0×	126k	753	55	74
48	Jun 26, '25	Great to see @Nate_Cohn's meta-analysis of six post-election studies confirming our work, all showing that Trump would have done better if everyone had voted. Way too many Democrat	3.4×	106k	568	119	126
49	Sep 21, '24	@peligrietzer You joke but this is a real measurement issue in psychometrics - when you ask people in long term relationships to access their personality they tend to access themse	3.4×	106k	1.8k	31	353
50	May 8, '20	@Spatch1003 Here's a quick pass of my positive and negative surprises from the last five years. I think on net I'm a little more optimistic about the future than I was in 2015 but	3.2×	0	1.2k	164	399
51	Jan 10, '21	One underrated thing about the 2020 election is that the partisan bias of the electoral college, already at it's largest point in nearly a century, got substantially larger. Democr	3.1×	0	1.3k	361	102
52	Feb 8, '25	With the title fixed*	3.0×	95k	576	60	114
53	Apr 29, '22	Large fractions of the American electorate report sympathy for highly authoritarian forms of government, with support being mediated strongly by education level among both white an	2.9×	0	1k	218	221
54	Sep 4, '25	Joe Biden got 79% of the two-way vote in California's state-organized mock election of middle and high school students in 2020. In 2024 Kamala Harris got 58%.	2.9×	90k	570	32	67
55	Jun 15, '25	Portugal’s rural south was a Communist stronghold for most of the last century - but over the last five years they’ve pivoted to the far right	2.9×	90k	514	62	142
56	Nov 9, '22	It's still early, but it seems like turnout relative to 2022 in Biden counties considerably lagged turnout in Trump counties in most competitive states, implying an electorate that	2.7×	0	1.2k	236	125
57	Jun 2, '22	Universal free school lunch is literally the most popular progressive education policy we’ve polled! [Also kudos to Sanders and Ilhan Omar for sponsoring a bill to do this all the	2.6×	0	1.4k	241	63
58	Sep 16, '21	For the record prescription drug price negotiation is the most popular of the 194 policies we’ve tested so far this year, with variants of the basic idea (IE, generic insulin, pate	2.5×	0	1.4k	259	26
59	Mar 29, '22	We did a poll on the Oscar controversy! If being able to interview thousands of people in a day to answer arbitrary social science questions sounds like a fun job perk, check out o	2.5×	0	788	164	135
60	Apr 10, '21	@agraybee @NateSilver538 Back of the envelope with conservative assumptions, your per hour risk of killing somebody driving sober is at least ~33x higher than the per-hour risk of	2.5×	0	1.3k	200	48
61	Oct 27, '22	Really interesting report here: 1) World opinion is polarizing on China/Russia vs US lines 2) Favorability toward Russia/China is much more correlated with social liberalism than i	2.4×	0	847	183	280
62	May 13, '21	Kenosha and surrounding townships, which saw large scale property destruction during protests shortly before the 2020 election, swung 4 points more toward Trump than demographicall	2.3×	0	1k	215	103
63	Jan 9, '21	It might not feel like it, just like it didn't feel like it in 2009, but public opinion is probably about to turn against Democrats and liberalism and we should all remember that a	2.3×	0	1.1k	175	87
64	Dec 23, '24	@JakeMGrumbach Migration plays an underrated role - ~52% of adults in Montana were born outside of the state (disproportionately from California) and the people who moved in from e	2.2×	71k	788	32	43
65	Apr 25, '24	@holy_schnitt I think you can get away with tomato but that’s about it	2.1×	67k	1.2k	5	3
66	Feb 3, '21	Thought it'd be interesting to update this graph with the past five years of data. Since 2012, white voters have become ~3.5% more Democratic and non-white voters have become ~3.8%	2.1×	0	955	197	106
67	Nov 10, '22	This narrative is basically made up and journalists should stop reporting it.	2.0×	0	857	230	62
68	Nov 10, '22	There was no "Youthquake" - turnout relative to 2018 was strongly associated with age, with turnout increasing starkly in older counties and decreasing the most in younger counties	1.9×	0	765	210	61
69	Jan 21, '22	The US senate considerably dilutes the voting power of African-Americans and Latinos and Asians to a degree that should be unacceptable in polite company.	1.8×	0	908	149	60
70	Feb 1, '22	This has to be the funniest story I've seen about Soviet planning.	1.8×	0	928	95	114
71	Aug 13, '21	@DanAncona @whstancil The primary problem keeping Democrats from winning elections is that the staff who work in the Democratic party are nearly all young, highly educated, and hig	1.8×	0	834	111	57
72	Oct 18, '24	@JoePostingg This is one of the reasons why I get so personally offended by it. If Democrats could rig elections then why would I be doing all of this work!	1.7×	54k	1.1k	24	13
73	Jul 8, '22	This is literally as popular a policy as things get:	1.7×	0	1.1k	119	13
74	Feb 8, '22	@NateSilver538 The curse of having educated voters in your coalition is that they demand ideological consistency at the expense of winning votes	1.6×	0	921	89	36
75	May 29, '22	New paper finds that, like in the US, changes in who people vote for (IE, swing voters changing their minds) explain ~75% of election to election swing while changes in *who vote	1.6×	0	637	143	123
76	Dec 16, '24	@jessesingal It is pretty surprising to me that 🦋 decided to make “death threats are OK” a dimension of product differentiation relative to Twitter	1.5×	47k	533	63	21
77	Jan 6, '21	We've won a trifecta! But if we don't prioritize redistricting reform and extending congressional representation to the millions of Americans who currently don't have it, we won't	1.4×	0	851	123	20
78	Apr 16, '22	Only 57% of voters under 30 in 2020 were able to correctly identify which party controlled the US House.	1.4×	0	701	95	43
79	Dec 27, '24	@SeanTrende The main dynamic nobody really talks about is that college acceptance rates plummeted in the 2000’s once the internet made people more willing to move far away from hom	1.4×	44k	833	22	31
80	Aug 27, '21	Underrated campaign math: If you persuade an R to vote D, that changes the D-R net vote margin by 2. If you mobilize a non-voter to vote or persuade a third party voter to vote D,	1.4×	0	697	94	39
81	Aug 14, '21	One underrated aspect of education polarization is that non-voters, who were a strongly Dem-leaning group during the Obama years, now are probably somewhat more Republican than the	1.3×	0	675	107	38
82	Dec 4, '20	Majority Hispanic districts swung toward Trump in 2020, but Democratic House incumbents (Henry Cuellar notably excepted) generally underperformed Biden on top of that, pointing to	1.2×	0	497	107	48
83	May 11, '22	@sarahnferris The crazy thing about this to me as a pollster is that the only way for inflation/cost of living to not be at the top of a list of concerns in a poll is if someone fo	1.2×	0	783	32	9
84	Nov 9, '22	AP votescast data also finds that Republicans outnumbered Democrats in this election - Democratic candidates won anyway because they both won independents and convinced many self-i	1.1×	0	530	125	25
85	May 22, '21	Great thread on how advocates are on course to successfully cripple large swathes of social science research by getting rid of access to anonymized census microdata in order to pre	1.1×	0	555	112	44
86	Apr 28, '22	@ThePlumLineGS @jbpoersch @simon_bazelon @mattyglesias @gabrielwinant The working class, like any group, isn’t monolithic. But working class voters of all races are rapidly trendin	1.1×	0	481	98	53
87	Jun 22, '22	Urban/rural polarization in American politics is a much more recent phenomenon than people realize	1.1×	0	500	79	64
88	May 29, '21	Across the western world in the post war era, cohorts born before the Great Depression voted more in line with their views on economic views while cohorts born after the Great Depr	1.0×	0	491	92	67
89	Mar 18, '21	It's a real testament to the power of ideology that Democrats are expending a lot of political capital right now in congress to pass campaign finance reform while Republicans are v	1.0×	0	581	86	19
90	Jan 3, '21	@averyfjames @mattyglesias I think the thing that people don't really get is that what left-wing activists care about is really influenced a lot more by what billionaire philanthro	1.0×	0	570	85	18
91	Jan 19, '22	Folks wildly underrate the procedural radicalism necessary to return to pre-2016 levels of structural bias against Democrats, and even pre-2016 levels of structural bias would give	1.0×	0	493	81	49
92	Apr 18, '21	@gelliottmorris There’s this whole implicit coalition of very liberal idealistic academics and ideologically-motivated advocacy groups that have created this impression that the Am	1.0×	0	482	89	40
93	Apr 30, '21	Framing policy changes as gradual and sensible rather than radical and transformative makes them a lot more popular!	1.0×	0	543	86	18
94	Dec 17, '20	@mattyglesias Sweden's actual labour party sent someone to check out the Iowa caucus and they were big Buttigieg fans!	1.0×	0	618	39	27
95	Oct 12, '21	Honestly bummed that this never made it’s way into the reconciliation package. Super popular with working class voters and seems high salience enough to break through into the disc	1.0×	0	530	59	36
96	Apr 30, '22	@beyerstein @Theophite In terms of lessons, the failure of groups to condemn RBG en-masse in 14 for not stepping down is going to end up being very consequential and we should prob	0.9×	0	575	36	9
97	Jul 31, '21	@mattyglesias The fact that technology "experts" all have a fanatical obsession with privacy at the expense of literally all other things (IE, we should punish researchers for test	0.9×	0	505	56	15
98	Jan 12, '21	@mattyglesias Someone working at Facebook explained to me that the core problem was that the strongest predictor of content being problematic was how quickly it was being shared	0.8×	0	522	34	22
99	Mar 14, '22	@Noahpinion I think "The most expensive hotels are twice as good as the median hotel" is a much more reasonable statement than the idea that they're twice as good as the cheapest h	0.8×	0	612	1	3
100	Apr 10, '21	@agraybee @NateSilver538 If you applied that same standard of safety consistently then you'd ban cars	0.8×	0	537	8	2
101	Apr 14, '21	@NateSilver538 The whole issue here is that nobody is an expert on the psychology of vaccine confidence (though I'd trust you over anyone in public health), which is why we shoul	0.7×	0	481	16	2

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