Dario Perkins

@darioperkins78k followers

MD Global Macro @TS_Lombard, macro themes/research/risks, central-bank specialist, started career at HM Treasury in late 90s, ex ABN AMRO, AC Milan fan

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Oct 17

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Posts 98 posts

#	Date	Post	↓ Outlier	Views	Likes	Reposts	Bookmarks
1	Mar 21, '24	hope this helps	53.5×	583k	2.4k	534	273
2	May 12, '25	escalate to de-escalate 😂	51.8×	565k	917	241	214
3	Jul 7, '23	THE RECESSION THAT DIDNT HAPPEN (so far..). 🧵 Why was the consensus wrong? 1) People fooled by bullwhip in manufacturing (fake cycle) 2) The big squeeze on real incomes is fading	35.9×	391k	757	138	385
4	Mar 31, '23	NEW BLOG: Central banks have a dilemma. 2008 PTSD vs the ghosts of the 1970s (and why financial risk is viral...)	30.7×	334k	332	82	100
5	Dec 21, '23	THINGS THAT WON'T HAPPEN IN 2024. Some, er, "bold" consensus-busting predictions... 🧵	27.3×	298k	306	65	175
6	Nov 1, '24	NEW BLOG: How to be a central banker The 10 rules of central banking. (this time with a free link that actually works without signups etc)	26.7×	291k	265	54	227
7	Feb 9, '24	NEW BLOG: Why the macro consensus has been getting everything wrong, and what comes next. Q&A guide to the weird business cycle that keeps fooling investors. (no paywall. Pleas	22×	239k	665	189	421
8	Mar 22, '25	So now the left want to buy tanks, the right want to buy EVs, the UK Labour govt is pro-austerity, the Austrians have an affinity for QE, the Chinese are looking to boost consumpti	21.5×	234k	2.2k	349	343
9	Oct 9, '25	😂	19.5×	212k	377	49	75
10	Feb 15, '23	Can we at least agree on definitions?	18.8×	204k	296	55	105
11	Jun 20, '24	such a strange chart. Any good theories?	18.6×	202k	525	70	156
12	Oct 20, '25	Goldman gets it...	18.4×	200k	874	81	1.2k
13	May 15, '25	What if: - massive insane tariffs + big recession scare = deflationary -moderate tariffs + no recession scare = inflationary?	16.5×	180k	292	42	63
14	Sep 6, '23	spectacular	15.8×	172k	548	90	50
15	Apr 16, '24	NEW BLOG (again in Q&A format): TEN POPULAR QUESTIONS ON MONETARY POLICY, plus a bonus question on "fiscal dominance". No paywall. Please share it because it helps me convince	15.3×	166k	411	122	229
16	Apr 12, '23	Wow: The BoJ now owns 70 percent of all outstanding 5-year and more than 80 percent of outstanding 10-year Japanese government bonds	14.2×	155k	422	98	26
17	Mar 14, '25	This is a big reason why the US outlook is so difficult to evaluate. We still have no idea how far DOGE will get, because despite their claims and stated ambitions, there is no act	13.8×	150k	427	73	70
18	Jun 21, '23	Everyone is asking the same question: why is UK inflation on worse trend than other DMs? There are two parts (i) supply (inactivity, Brexit, broken NHS), (ii) a public that have ha	13.5×	148k	397	85	44
19	Aug 2, '24	probably another recession headfake. We see these narrative toggles every 3 mths, but 2 things bother me: 1. why are the PMI deteriorating again? (just a seasonality problem?) 2. l	13.4×	146k	301	33	68
20	Mar 31, '25	many people are saying this is the best summary of tariffs in the world...	13×	142k	813	123	831
21	Apr 25, '24	smh	12.8×	140k	635	94	70
22	Apr 5, '25	The idea this is a master plan to reduce yields... just NO.. If you wanted to do that, you'd announce a credible plan to cut govt spending gradually & get the Fed on board alla	11.7×	127k	976	85	121
23	Dec 22, '22	NEW BLOG (the moment you've waited a whole year for...): My hilarious consensus-busting guide to 2023. And something special this year - we reveal Jay Powell's secret #fintwit acco	11.5×	126k	342	115	52
24	Jul 11, '24	NEW BLOG: Are central banks geniuses for getting inflation back down, or did they get lucky? And is their luck about to run out...? No paywall. Again please share because it helps	11×	119k	429	144	146
25	Sep 18, '23	I've spent most of this year arguing that a recession wasn't imminent for the US. Since the summer, most recessionistas have flipped, which is odd because recession risk seems HIGH	10.2×	111k	310	25	26
26	Jun 28, '23	Part of the confusion about recession rn is because the fake recession signals we had 12 mths - the bullwhip in global manufacturing & the big squeeze on real incomes - are sta	9.6×	105k	292	42	44
27	Apr 3, '25	You can hate finance. But this is an industry that values ideas, evidence and well-thought-out-arguments. What happened yesterday has caused a collective shock, even though it was	9.6×	104k	429	71	46
28	May 9, '25	US policy chaos has already damaged the economy, by undermining confidence and forcing companies to postpone capex and hiring. That was the story of Q1. But the real recession risk	9.4×	103k	403	88	196
29	Apr 7, '25	Some people on here say this is like the GFC. The GFC was head-in-hands despair. This is head-in-hands disbelief... Nobody has ever seen this level of policy incompetence before (a	8.9×	97k	547	58	31
30	Apr 8, '25	Your economy was the envy of the world. Wtf are you doing?	8.7×	95k	3.2k	183	70
31	Jun 11, '24	if you ask AI a question about macro, it sounds really smart but it is essentially talking bullshit and offers no real insight or understanding. so yes, it can displace a lot of jo	8.4×	92k	668	69	19
32	Feb 1, '23	The "A" shaped recovery. You're welcome (Sorry about the handwriting..)	8.4×	92k	345	60	33
33	Apr 26, '23	when people show charts of US yield inversions, they never seem to include the 1970s - perhaps because the data aren't easy to find. Here it is:	8.2×	89k	323	78	79
34	Sep 10, '25	PPI excludes imports, but yeah ok	8.1×	88k	440	34	29
35	Mar 5, '25	Trump has managed to piss off the whole world (well, almost....😉) but so far he has forced Germany to spend, China to spend, and OPEC to pump...	8.0×	87k	560	71	56
36	Jan 6, '25	everyone is bullish	7.9×	86k	406	69	156
37	Mar 3, '23	People say my macro views are unclear on here (!), so here is a summary from a client presentation pack	7.6×	83k	369	58	154
38	Apr 23, '25	My base case - no recession/ financial crash/ dollar crisis. US just muddles along and the actions/chaos of this administration slowly erode - but not destroy - the US advantage ov	7.2×	79k	395	56	97
39	Jul 16, '25	reminder - tariffs will appear in the CPI before they appear in the PPI. PPI excludes imports and only captures tariffs indirectly	7.2×	78k	495	72	74
40	Apr 1, '25	The best thing about Liberation Day is that they had to delay it 24 hours to avoid April 1st. What does it say about your flagship economic policy that you are worried it will be m	6.8×	74k	1.9k	148	54
41	Oct 15, '25	This is so good - definitely worth your time	6.5×	71k	317	32	267
42	Jun 19, '23	View post on X	6.4×	70k	357	27	21
43	Dec 6, '23	Only economists can spend 18 months talking about "inevitable recession" and then wonder why everyone is so gloomy 🤣	6.2×	68k	324	53	8
44	May 9, '25	its funny that the bull case for this administration is basically just that it will undo everything it has done so far...	6.2×	67k	733	71	22
45	Apr 24, '25	The most frustrating market loop ever. They get tough on tariffs, market sinks, then the rhetoric eases, markets rally, and then they get tough again. Meanwhile the damage to the e	6.1×	67k	449	44	29
46	Aug 24, '23	an old favourite	6.0×	66k	370	76	44
47	May 1, '24	Main takeaway - cuts postponed (no longer so confident its just a bump in inflation), but hurdle for hikes is really high. Fed doesn't want break this economy just because inflatio	6.0×	65k	316	40	23
48	Oct 7, '25	Most of my meetings go like this - "yes AI is a bubble but we are buying anyway. Economy... who cares... something something... K-shaped"	5.8×	63k	472	43	34
49	May 25, '22	Economists have predicted 5 out of the last 153 recessions (IMF research)	5.7×	0	1.7k	259	69
50	Nov 4, '25	Germany to invest in data center. there you go, top is in...	5.6×	61k	1.1k	62	72
51	Sep 7, '24	After decades of central-bank watching, I think I've managed to decipher the hidden code behind monetary policy moves: 25bps - "measured", precise, CHILLED 50 bps - "I'm not panick	5.6×	61k	440	55	58
52	Dec 18, '24	Bad Santa rally	5.5×	60k	411	45	20
53	Oct 6, '23	The US labour market can stay "pre-recessionary" longer than bond bulls can stay solvent	5.5×	60k	361	46	8
54	Oct 3, '25	my take: nothing to do with AI. We had a period of extremely rapid employment growth, and now companies are squeezing efficiency gains because there is too much uncertainty to keep	4.8×	53k	461	48	95
55	Sep 17, '25	"One member of the FOMC dissented, preferring a more significant 400bps rate cut" 🤣	4.8×	52k	592	25	12
56	Apr 9, '25	Can somebody explain the logic of how this was a "win"? You do something incredibly dumb, everything breaks, and you then undo it. Struggling here	4.4×	48k	602	23	21
57	Nov 16, '23	Even if inflation settles down at 2%, the public are still gonna feel pissed off about the price gains of the last 3 years. And it doesn't matter if wages kept pace (which they did	4.4×	48k	335	36	16
58	Oct 22, '25	The UK - booms by becoming Europe's global financial centre. Until the GFC. Then decides it doesn't like finance. Or Europe. And the rest of the country decides it doesn't like Lon	3.8×	41k	572	56	61
59	Sep 6, '25	If the US is sliding into recession, it will be one of the dumbest recessions in history	3.7×	40k	303	20	19
60	Jun 19, '23	Er, thanks American consumers	⚡ 3.6×	1.3M	1.1k	82	111
61	May 12, '25	markets celebrate on the basis that this US administration is only incompetent... and not totally insane 🤣	3.5×	38k	505	60	13
62	Apr 13, '25	For an administration that hates bureaucracy, they are constructing the most complicated tariff system in the world...	3.5×	38k	526	71	21
63	Sep 12, '24	The German response to the Draghi report gives the impression they are worried about subsidizing the "periphery" for years to come, but the way things are going, the periphery is g	3.5×	38k	297	50	15
64	Apr 9, '25	Tariffs were for negotiation Then for revenue Then for reindustrialisation Then for getting yields down Now for turning the world against China...	3.4×	38k	529	70	55
65	Nov 2, '22	People hated this chart when I posted it 12 months ago. But I still kinda like it.. Based on history, either inflation had to come down ("transitory") or equity valuations were in	3.4×	0	853	149	164
66	Mar 10, '25	US e x c e p t i o n a l i s m	3.2×	35k	460	35	16
67	Sep 29, '21	So inflation, I'm on Team Transitory. BUT I always spend time thinking about where I could be wrong and this is the scenario that troubles me most. It is not about "fiscal dominanc	3.2×	0	644	144	169
68	Mar 11, '25	Bessent says the US economy is "brittle" after years of fiscal deficits. I'd argue the exact opposite - deficits kept the private sector is surplus, which has made private balance	3.1×	34k	300	44	31
69	Apr 6, '25	If you are worried about a "fiscal crisis", you definitely want to damage supply potential, trigger a recession, and undermine your reserve asset status in global markets. That all	3.1×	33k	303	40	16
70	Sep 11, '25	Fed is gonna panic now and do 50bps, aren't they..	3.0×	33k	344	13	9
71	Apr 6, '25	It wasn't just the tariffs, it was the flakiness of the "analysis" underpinning them. At that point, even sanewashing became impossible	2.9×	32k	427	43	24
72	Jan 30, '25	Powell yesterday confirmed that policy has moved from pre-emptive easing (cutting to prevent bad things happening in the future), to reactive easing (cutting when bad things happen	2.9×	31k	350	35	55
73	Apr 2, '25	The Great Depression wouldn't have happened if they had kept the tariffs... f*** me that's a take	2.7×	29k	395	23	11
74	Sep 24, '22	The problem isn't that the UK budget was inflationary, its that it was moronic. And a small open economy that seems to be run by morons gets a wider risk premium on its assets - cu	2.5×	0	612	171	35
75	Sep 11, '25	cpi is hot the jobs market is about to stall whoever invented these tariffs is a bit of a fool	2.5×	27k	355	29	17
76	May 12, '25	Just to repeat, the administration was getting everything it wanted BEFORE Liberation Day. China was stimulating, Europe was spending on defence, OPEC was pumping oil, markets had	2.4×	26k	359	44	38
77	Jul 14, '22	NEW BLOG: the nightmare scenario for central banks (i.e why policymakers are losing their s***)	2.3×	0	480	114	138
78	Nov 11, '21	This is my favourite inflation tweet of all time. The four stages of the central-bank response	2.3×	0	554	152	59
79	Mar 30, '22	Fed policy path, as seen by the bond market	2.2×	0	644	114	22
80	Sep 6, '22	"Lehman moments" since Lehman: Greece 2010 Italy 2011 Spain 2012 China 2014 Oil 2015 China 2016 Brexit 2017 Mallmageddon 2018 Repo 2019 COVID 2020 China 2021 Europe 2022 Did I miss	1.9×	0	566	58	42
81	Mar 4, '25	Recessions are good because they reduce the govt deficit. Literally never been true	1.9×	21k	331	22	6
82	Apr 29, '22	In your macro textbook, strong USD: - cools US - boosts RoW - exports US inflation IRL (where everyone borrows & invoices in USD), strong USD: - reduces world trade - squeezes	1.7×	0	358	92	104
83	Jan 3, '22	2022 might be the year we discover the true state of the economy, after all the distortions of the last 2 years. This hasn't been a genuine business cycle, something that has thoro	1.6×	0	507	68	16
84	May 27, '22	Inflation is about power, not money	1.6×	0	338	74	91
85	Sep 26, '22	BoE options: 1) Say & do nothing - looks clueless/ asleep at the wheel 2) Say something but do nothing - looks toothless 3) Do something small (50bps) - mkt will push you to do	1.5×	0	394	67	17
86	Feb 3, '22	We should have a race. The first central bank to crash their economy with rate hikes wins a prize...	1.5×	0	474	48	9
87	Apr 3, '25	They literally codified Trump's worst, most economically illiterate instincts on trade and turned it into a tariff schedule. Then they displayed it as a colourful table because the	1.4×	16k	310	36	16
88	Dec 15, '22	🧵Several central banks, including the Fed and the BoE are forecasting rising unemployment in 2023/24. While only the Brits are using the "R" word, this is something that usually o	1.4×	0	304	66	66
89	Dec 13, '22	peak is in	1.4×	0	366	53	42
90	Oct 16, '22	I will never forget a meeting I had with a US hedgefund manager in September 2008 who just kept repeating the phrase "We are so f*ing f*ed!". Current status of the UK	1.3×	0	469	26	26
91	Nov 12, '22	Not seen a single 2023 outlook, but given the lack of imagination in this industry I imagine they will all say: lower but sticky inflation, weak growth/mild recession (40% chance �	1.3×	0	405	28	38
92	Feb 10, '22	OK I'm calling it - 40% chance of emergency Fed announcement over the weekend 😉	1.2×	0	388	20	7
93	Feb 22, '22	There was a paper by Bernanke (2000 ish) showing that every US recession in previous 30 years was preceded by two things: (i) tighter monetary policy and (ii) spike in oil prices.	1.2×	0	342	48	32
94	Apr 8, '22	Over the next few years - inflation will be at tolerable levels - growth will be stronger - productivity will improve - inequality will come down And we will look back at the disas	1.1×	0	317	32	24
95	Oct 14, '21	Can I get odds on a 2022 deflation scare? China slump, supply chains overcompensate, premature policy tightening...	1.1×	0	337	20	23
96	Nov 3, '22	Came back from work early today and caught my wife with the heating on...	1.1×	0	398	28	3
97	Feb 25, '22	If the stock market "only ever goes up" and every dip is a "buying opportunity", why do we need market strategists? Asking for a friend..	1.1×	0	340	23	11
98	Oct 11, '22	The BoE is just trying to secure the wheels onto the car a little better, so it can drive faster into that wall.	1.1×	0	332	41	6
99	Sep 28, '22	Its not QE. Its just a short-term operation to address an immediate risk to UK financial stability. Reassured yet?	1.0×	0	326	25	6
100	Oct 16, '22	I dont think it's about politics, or fiscal policy, or any of the stuff dominating the Sunday press. Those were accelerants. Austerity - even if it were politicallly sustainable -	1.0×	0	318	31	16
101	Feb 10, '22	We can debate whether the US boom is real, but in Europe we have the same inflation with no sign of the boom. Its just a massive squeeze on our real incomes. Your demand boom, our	1.0×	0	334	33	9

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