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Arin Dube

@arindube58k followers

Provost Prof. of Economics, UMass Amherst Labor market policies, competition, inequality @nberpubs My book:

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1Jul 6, '23Mr. Dube and two co-authors found that...in just two years, the economy undid about a quarter of the increase in inequality since 1980. Much of that progress, they found, came from96.3×1.6M1.6k364171
2Feb 4, '24As an American economist, I feel in part it's my own failing (and our collective failing) that so many our my fellow Americans don't yet understand how important and successful thi49.3×839k6.4k1.3k345
3Jul 20, '23Apparently not enough people have digested this fact so let me say this in plain English. Real wages for most American workers are not only higher than they were prior to the pande42.3×720k1.1k35789
4Nov 25, '23This great 1997 article by Bob Shiller has survey evidence on to why people dislike inflation: they don't believe wages would be very different if inflation were lower. They think 35.8×610k1.7k216702
5May 1, '23🚨 Difference-in-differences working paper alert 🚨 Our Local-Projections DiD offers a unified approach that encompasses many popular alternatives as specific instances; allows for28.6×487k871218591
6Apr 30, '23Our "Unexpected Compression" makes it to the FT's chart of the week. Low earners in the US enjoy fastest wage growth27.2×463k693178111
7Jan 10, '24Hot take: Wages are growing substantially faster than prices, and that's a very good thing.20.1×343k7749220
8Mar 31, '24Great new work by @S_Stantcheva on why people hate inflation, following up on Shiller ('99). Big reason: people tend to ascribe wage gains to own efforts, and price inflation to po15.8×268k700153196
9Jan 13, '24If you want to understand how real wages have risen under Biden, look no further than what the Bills are paying their fans for shoveling snow13.6×232k1.2k15138
10Nov 23, '24Paper published in American Economic Review begs to differ.13×221k61396234
11Jan 1, '23I found out that my 9 yo apparently kept raising the price of lemonade they were selling on the sidewalk in order to better understand the price sensitivity of demand.12.5×213k1.6k2527
12Jan 25, '24In the real world, Biden's policies have brought up working class wages more than we've seen in generations, reducing pay gap with the upper class.12.3×210k61214066
13Nov 24, '23In a better world, the American left would be defending the strong pro-full-employment policies pursued by Biden administration, and argue back against the specious claim much of t12.2×208k73315031
14Nov 24, '23Is there any doubt that when we look back in time, everyone will agree that the post-pandemic rise and fall in inflation was a widespread, global phenomenon that had little to do w10.9×185k73918981
15Aug 1, '25Firing the Commissioner of Labor Statistics when the BLS revises jobs numbers down (as it routinely does) threatens to destroy trust in core American institutions, and all governme10.9×185k98926367
16Dec 11, '25Between 1979–2019, top pay (90th pct.) rose 53%, middle rose 23%, bottom (10th pct.) rose 17%. (Hourly productivity climbed 73%.) Since 2019, gains at the bottom reversed 1/3 of th10.7×183k24849125
17Apr 12, '24Facts beg to differ. President Biden has presided over a historic reduction in wage inequality fueled by strong real wage growth at the bottom and middle--benefiting working class 10.6×180k44312653
18Mar 31, '24Economist here. Reciting data, because that's what we do - if we're doing our job. Wages are rising strongly for most American workers, and much more so than prices. This is a succ9.8×166k82915075
19Jan 11, '24New data through December shows wage growth strongly outpacing inflation. While the reduced gap between non-managerial vs managerial wages has remained (a good thing!), 2023 was a 9.4×161k41617462
20Dec 22, '23Pres. Biden can legitimately say: it took us 3 years to fix the inflation that was rising and when I took office. We're entering the fourth year with a lower inflation rate and low9.3×159k1.3k42639
21Nov 13, '23An update to work with @davidautor & @AnnieMcGrew1. The Unexpected Compression in wages has persisted, even as labor market tightness subsided. Tl;dr ~40% of the rise in wage g9.0×154k502158169
22Dec 18, '23The Black/white wage differential stopped falling by 1980. Since then, it rose from ~20% to ~24% in 2018. Then it fell, and stands under 16% today, an all time low. The tight labor8.5×145k59317159
23Feb 8, '24Can't say this enough. Joe Biden inherited a country plagued by a pandemic, and an economy that was a wreck. Today we have an economy with low unemployment and low inflation, and h8.5×145k1.4k27683
24Nov 7, '24Having written extensively about how real wages have risen strongly for working class Americans since 2019, let me be clear about a few things, on both the facts, and how we should8.4×143k473100328
25Nov 27, '23I don't know if reporting economic facts changes anyone's minds but someone has to do it. Glad Claudia is helping fill the void.7.9×135k4377714
26Nov 7, '24The effort by center-left technocrats to say the problem was that Democrats went "too far left" in economics is one of the most ridiculous narratives to emerge in this era.7.8×132k1.3k16276
27Feb 9, '24When the choice is between a well-meaning elderly man and a very ill-intentioned elderly man, well it's pretty clear how you should choose.7.7×131k5108111
28Sep 16, '24If you are interested in learning more about minimum wages, @attilalindner and I have a new, up-to-date review of the topic, coming out in the Handbook of Labor Economics. Here's t7.6×130k667177421
29Dec 27, '24Tech bros thought they could outsmart the stupid MAGA types to get deregulation, tax cuts and maybe even more H1Bs. MAGA thought they could take tech bros' money and parade them ou7.2×123k99416062
30Nov 25, '24I think if we are being honest about failures on the left, failure to do cost/benefit analysis post-vax was an important one.6.9×118k5332855
31Dec 2, '23The fact that this unhinged thread has 15K likes based on patent falsehoods (i.e., claiming government data on jobs is based on self-reported numbers from Indeed) is bewildering. I6.9×117k7546744
32Apr 11, '24In the real world, workers' pay isn't stuck at February 2020 level. For most Americans, pay has risen substantially more than prices since pre-pandemic: real (i.e., inflation adjus6.8×116k4589829
33Nov 30, '23Hey Siri, what's a way to say 76% of Americans are optimistic about the economy but make it sound terrible?6.3×107k1.1k18724
34Aug 4, '23There are two very important facts you should know about current wage growth in America. 1. Real wages are rising (i.e., wage growth is outpacing inflation: blue, green > red) 26.2×105k51015235
35Oct 21, '24The greatest trick Elon Musk ever pulled was convincing the world he was more of an innovator than a rent-seeker. He is a rent-seeker.5.9×101k1.3k15742
36Apr 4, '25Here's my guess. Never in human history has a whimsical decision by a single person destroyed so much wealth.5.6×96k81013960
37Mar 21, '24The idea of de-growth is a radical failure of imagination among part of the left. We can promise, and deliver, a much better future than that.5.5×94k4636217
38Apr 21, '22There is no Great Resignation ... people are not leaving the workforce. Prime-age employment rate is back to 2019 levels! What we have is a Great Reshuffling: workers moving to bet5.5×02.7k31971
39Mar 10, '20Before I hear any more ideas of a payroll tax, bail out, or any other economic stimulus policy in response to COVID-19, I want to see a paid sick leave policy. It's insane not to d5.3×02.5k4215
40Apr 8, '19Pleased to announce that our paper quantifying the overall effect of US minimum wages on low-wage jobs is now forthcoming at the Quarterly Journal of Economics. Here's the current 5.1×01.6k551148
41Nov 28, '23That's quite a threat from Sweden's unions to fight Tesla's attempt to subvert the Swedish model of labor relations .4.7×80k53610227
42Dec 21, '23Bob Solow, RIP. Your wit and insights were an inspiration to me. Here I found your brutal quips on those who taught me macro at Univ Chicago to be quite memorable!4.2×72k4998244
43Jan 13, '24Just your regular reminder that assuming really rich people have deep insights about how to run the economy is a very bad idea4.0×69k5197615
44Nov 4, '19I was asked by the UK Treasury to review intl. evidence on minimum wage, with focus on impact at higher levels. My review is now out. It aims to provide comprehensive, up-to-date a4.0×0984365317
45Jan 17, '21This short thread summarizes my thinking the perennial question about minimum: "how high is OK?" Tl;dr: we don't yet know, and that's ok. 1/3.7×01.1k273271
46May 21, '22What if I told you that the college wage premium is falling right now, for the first time since 1970s? Well, it is.3.7×01.4k221161
47Mar 13, '20Let me introduce you to a term: labor hoarding. Refers to when employers-faced w/ a downturn-don't lay off workers but keep them around even though there's not as much work. Why? B3.3×01.3k29758
48Feb 14, '24Couldn't agree more with @AOC ... Biden is one of the most successful presidents in modern American history with an incredible legislative record to help the working class and figh3.1×52k4637323
49Jan 16, '22Controversial claim. And I may be badly wrong. But: In 4 weeks, in the Northeast, we'll likely be done with the pandemic (unless a new variant emerges). Vax+boosters+Omicron will h3.0×06913775
50Feb 11, '24I'm old enough to remember when Republicans would call this high treason.2.9×49k1k20710
51Mar 18, '24The idea that Trump is better at managing the US economy than Biden is at stark odds with facts.2.8×48k46514628
52Aug 27, '2270% of those with at most high school degree, 66% with some college education, and 61% of college grads support at least as much student debt forgiveness as announced this week. Su2.7×085127949
53Aug 20, '21🚨New study using new bank-transaction level data: What did ending pandemic UI do to jobs, income, spending?🚨 We find: *Large drop in share receiving UI *For every 8 losing UI, 1 2.6×0708280119
54Dec 4, '21It's almost as if the things some of us were concerned about in late 1990s and early 2010s--that NAFTA led to economic pain, or that proliferation of Walmart pushed down wages, and2.5×0911229104
56Jul 23, '19Compelling evidence presented at #NBERSI today by Attila Lindner & others shows how German national minimum wage raised wages, had no real employment effect overall - but led t2.3×069029065
57Jan 14, '22Been reading this paper by Rebecca Diamond & Enrico Moretti about local cost of living diff. It's just really amazing data work. Shows how sometimes basic measurement and descr2.3×0674140242
58May 16, '21The $300 pandemic UI boost is causing labor shortage even across the pond in U.K.!2.3×093216435
59Mar 19, '19Here is my @Slate piece celebrating the legacy of @Alan_Krueger I owe so much to Alan. And so does the economics profession.2.2×081321849
60Aug 27, '22The college wage premium has *falllen* over the last two years, as my new work with David Autor shows. Here is a sneak peek. Cc @jasonfurman2.1×0787149107
61Nov 22, '21I usually wouldn't comment on a N=8 scatterplot, but this particular example turns out to be very useful pedagogically, illustrating the impact of a single, *high leverage*, observ2.1×084815253
62Feb 24, '21Since there is talk about hierarchies in Econ, let me add another element in the mix besides gender and race. Departmental hierarchy. Can't tell you how many times I've had people 2.0×09326731
63Feb 26, '21At this point I think Dems need more leadership from the White House on the minimum wage issue than we have seen so far.1.9×01.1k516
64Feb 14, '21Things to focus more on: * Improve vaccine distribution, production * Economic relief * UI * Child allowance * Raise the Minimum Wage * Voting rights Things to focus less on: * Psy1.9×09671084
65Sep 16, '22Fundamentally, there is a narrow set of progressives who have built their identity around covid, and it's very hard for them to let go. I hate to say it, but it's absolutely true.1.9×07464716
66Apr 29, '21I agree as an economist - Biden's plans (if enacted) will likely lead to shared prosperity of sorts we haven't seen before.1.9×098211011
67Jan 22, '21When you come at a thick literature, you best not miss. We had the goods in our 2019 QJE paper. We didn't do a "yet another paper." We showed how to estimate the total impact of th1.9×0647129136
68Apr 20, '21PSA: please do not thank dead people for having been murdered.1.9×09861091
69Sep 13, '22I am proud of many of my papers but this paper is the one where I feel we really ventured out, and successfully so.1.8×063596136
70Aug 29, '22One of the signatures of "third way" politics is to invent problems that don't exist, and offer unpopular solutions to solve non-existent problems. The best thing about the Biden a1.7×09168119
71Nov 6, '20You know GOP Senators know they lost the presidency when they start talking about the national debt.1.7×07731489
72Nov 25, '20Beyond the most important task (ending the pandemic), I think if I have one overarching economic advice for the Biden Administration. Relentlessly pursue full employment, and don't1.7×076511514
73Feb 10, '24This is Day 3 of NY Times reporters *choosing* to write about this issue after a clearly partisan report aimed to stir the pot. So the question answers itself.1.7×28k445796
74Sep 27, '19My paper on minimum wages and the distribution of family incomes is now out in AEJ: Applied Economics.1.6×054318261
76Jul 13, '22Wage growth has decelerated and is close to where it needs to be for 2-3% inflation. That means whatever you think is causing price inflation, it's not an over-tight labor market. 1.6×058715240
77Mar 27, '19A reminder based on my lecture today: The expansion of food stamps (now SNAP) led to important improvements in infant health. Moreover, these health gains persisted into adulthood.1.5×049520818
78Sep 18, '19Social democracy is good for capitalism is an argument not taken seriously enough by most people on the right or the left but is actually reasonably accurate1.5×065212814
79Nov 4, '21Since the 80s, we've created a landscape that favors a low labor cost strategy, by removing constraints on monopsony. So unsurprisingly, it's teeming with corporate policies that a1.5×053015359
80Jul 4, '22At this point we are seeing increasing evidence that the shareholder revolution as well as managerial ideology were important parts of the increase in inequality after 1980.1.5×0481139107
81Jan 25, '21Min wage opposition often framed as concern for marginal workers who may lose their jobs. Yet in surveys, low-wage voters strongly support raising the minimum wage even as they thi1.4×061510626
82Feb 5, '19Howard Schultz’s problem is that he is a person of means while most Americans also care about variances.1.4×0732672
83Mar 13, '21Morgan Stanley gets it right when it comes to the impact of raising the minimum wage.1.4×054815620
84Nov 18, '18When Thanos destroyed a random 50% of all life in the universe in Infinity Wars, was the randomization stratified by planet? He said half of humanity would survive, suggesting so. 1.4×05221079
85Nov 21, '18One of the most surreal experiences during my graduate studies at Univ of Chicago was Gary Becker explaining to 1st year grad micro class in late '90s that domestic violence was no1.3×047312020
86Sep 18, '19Once quality improvements like Cheez-it stuffed with even more cheese is taken into account, real standards of living for the median American family has improved dramatically over 1.3×0627957
87Nov 13, '19A very useful interview with Esther Duflo about wage effects of low-skilled migration. I also want to use to use this to highlight how silly it is to argue that the Nobelists this 1.3×045913946
88Feb 18, '20Yes, I sincerely believe @ewarren would make the best president of anyone in the race.1.3×05811102
89Jul 30, '21The idea that wages are set competitively, i.e., W=MRPL, is mostly false. But the idea that wages are set based on a standard model of monopsony, MCL=MRPL, may also be false. Rathe1.3×05446954
90Jun 3, '21I can't say this enough. 4 million families are getting completely cut off from unemployment benefits with about a month's notice. This didn't need to happen.1.2×05001257
91May 29, '21Sometimes it's good to have a sense of history. For actual "cancelling" in economics, you can go back to the 1970s, when leftist economists with stellar credentials were systematic1.2×04899736
92Nov 17, '17Groper-in-chief offers us his expert opinion about the dynamics of groping.1.2×04511470
93Jan 31, '21The only useful thing about the GOP proposal is that it reminds us exactly how glad we should be that Dems won the GA Senate races allowing them to pass things using reconciliation1.2×05121122
94Aug 24, '22Whatever you may think of the specifics of student loan forgiveness, Joe Biden has been more focused on helping middle and working class Americans ("building from the middle out") 1.2×0514927
95Jun 10, '21Brilliant.1.1×048210210
96Feb 12, '21Joe Manchin is a conservative Dem whose politics I disagree with but who is one of the few Dems who can win in his state. Kyrsten Sinema on the other hand is ... something else.1.0×05573213
97Apr 15, '21View post on X1.0×0537548
98Jul 14, '21PSA for fellow male economists: don't engage in EJMR. Ideally, don't even look. I have looked a few times, as people forward me stuff, and I apparently attract a lot of hate there.1.0×04643915
99Feb 24, '21At the end of the day, the only reason I went into economics was the hope my work had some chance of making a small difference in making the world a better place. If it weren't for0.9×04802518
100Jun 22, '22PSA: when Beyoncé sings "I quit my job" she is referring to job to job transition, not that she stopped working.0.8×0468343

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