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Stefan Schubert

@StefanFSchubert54k followers

I run The Update newsletter. Book:

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Posts 85 posts
#DatePost↓ OutlierViewsLikesRepostsBookmarks
1Mar 6, '24There's Japanese data on cherry tree blossoming stretching back to 812. Some commitment.546×6.5M22k3.3k2.4k
2Jun 7, '23Out of the 1,000 top scorers on the entrance exam for the Indian Institutes of Technology, 36% have migrated eight years later (primarily to the US). Out of the top 100, 62%. Out o257×3M4k840987
3Sep 13, '25"French pensioners now have higher incomes than working-age adults" - extraordinary By @jburnmurdoch235×2.8M15k2.3k2.5k
4Oct 31, '25In 2000, UK top 10% incomes were no 3 in the world, but they’ve since gradually fallen and are now behind the rest of the Anglosphere and northwestern Europe; just above Spain and 158×1.9M4.3k8461.3k
5Oct 3, '25"It has gone largely unnoticed that time spent on social media peaked in 2022 and has since gone into steady decline." By @jburnmurdoch127×1.5M11k1.4k2.1k
6Oct 26, '25In the 90s, Pakistan had 50% higher GDP per capita than India, but now it’s only half as large as India’s91.2×1.1M2.9k394412
7Aug 15, '24Doctor quality matters a lot. Norwegian study finds that replacing one of the 5% worst general practitioners with one of average quality generates a social benefit of $9.05 million67.8×804k1.9k353696
8Oct 27, '25Anthropic has overtaken OpenAI in enterprise large language model API market share58.7×697k5.1k440828
9Apr 11, '25Yes, Scott is quite right. People underrate the importance of this kind of intellectual hygiene. Sloppy cynicism is corrosive to sound thinking.56×664k3.4k1611.1k
10Jan 10, '25The association between defence spending and distance from Moscow among EU countries55×652k8.8k1.6k1k
11Aug 10, '24This claim flatters most listeners, which probably partially explains its popularity. But it's not true. Elites are much more competent than randomly selected people.53.1×630k2.1k65216
12Apr 16, '24Uncharacteristically unilluminating graph by The Economist48.6×577k5k79583
13Feb 22, '23Two main predictors of never having been invaded by Britain: 1) Being landlocked 2) Being Sweden45.8×544k1.1k13086
14Feb 14, '24The bottom 10% of earners42.1×499k2.9k278343
15Jul 15, '23Forecasts used to say China would quickly overtake US GDP, but that's no longer the case39.9×474k1.4k214175
18Dec 28, '24Obviously you have to adjust for population37.9×450k2.7k202457
19Mar 15, '25Daniel Kahneman died by assisted suicide in Switzerland. I think it's really wrong that most liberal countries don't permit this. It's an extremely severe restriction of individual36.9×437k2.3k189905
20Oct 17, '25Replying to a VP of science at OpenAI. Be sceptical of these types of claims.35.7×424k1.4k85360
21Nov 4, '25Lol35.5×421k1.8k109545
22Apr 14, '24Janan Ganesh on "the myth of the second chance" "The self-help industry suggests all mistakes in life are retrievable. Middle age teaches us otherwise." Yes.34.3×407k2.2k2871.5k
23Apr 18, '24US politics is an outlier, and should not be seen as representative of the rich world. Between 2006 and 2023, trust in national institutions increased in all of the G7 except the U33.9×402k618177108
24Jul 7, '24For most people in most contexts, it's more reasonable to trust the science than to question it, precisely because they neither have the time nor the ability to do science33.7×400k8.3k349225
25Mar 19, '24"Between 2007 and 2020 the average graduation rate at public high schools in America leapt from 74% to 87%...Yet SAT scores fell. Results from the latest PISA test show that maths 30.5×362k978195214
26Nov 10, '23Study found that "within a few months of the launch of ChatGPT, copywriters and graphic designers on major online freelancing platforms saw a significant drop in the number of jobs28.8×342k729250209
27Jun 26, '25"36% of all Chinese undergraduate entrants picked an engineering degree. In Britain and America the proportion hovers around 5%." Incredible numbers (assuming the definitions are c28.8×342k711129162
28Oct 22, '24Huge drop in the cost of public college in the US, virtually unreported. The average inflation-adjusted net tuition and fees paid by first-time, full-time, in-state students enroll27.9×331k1.1k179201
29Dec 28, '23John von Neumann was born on this day 120 years ago26.7×317k2.2k195205
30May 23, '25How economics has changed26.2×310k725162272
31Feb 1, '23Capitalism25×296k4.4k38044
32Oct 12, '25Share of young Swedish women and men who view "the environment/climate" and "gender equality/feminism" as one of the five most engaging political questions. Substantial drop since 22.6×268k78763160
33Oct 29, '24Many Americans greatly exaggerate this narrative with cherry-picked data22.5×267k1.2k88276
34Sep 2, '22Lol, Ukrainian refugee in Sweden: "All Swedish flats are the same - same IKEA furniture, same scented candles. It's like the flats in my childhood's Soviet Union. Sweden is like th21.4×011k1.3k665
36Aug 29, '25The falling birth rates are tilted towards he left. Left-wing and right-wing voters used to have roughly the same number of children, but in recent decades, a big gap has opened up21.2×252k833124284
37Aug 11, '24Where the wealthy move, and from where20.4×242k776139236
38Feb 1, '25Paper found that longer laws (in terms of amount of text) causes more growth (in the US). Likely contradicts many people's priors.19.8×235k994123495
39Nov 16, '25Astonishing chart showing that since 1995, average Spanish pensions have grown 1.9%, while average salaries have grown 0.2%. Over time that's added up to pensions growing ~65%, whi18.7×222k1.5k192207
40Nov 7, '2442% of private school pupils in England get extra time in exams because of ADHD, dyslexia, or other diagnoses. FT’s article focuses on the difference vs state schools but their num17.8×211k961160308
41Apr 15, '2331% of Soviet troops, 29% of German troops, and 29% of Japanese troops died during World WarII. For Britain, its empire, and commmonwealth, the figure was 3,3%; and for the US, 2.517.6×209k7585782
42Oct 16, '25Weak argument - you need to show that Montessori kindergartens and fraternity houses are equally problematic to establish that this is a problem. You can't just assume that.15.2×181k6472272
43Jun 7, '25Particulate matter local air pollution from road transport is much less due to petrol exhaust than most people think. More is due to brake, tyre, and road wear. This means the effe14.6×173k877150167
44Oct 29, '25The US obesity rate is on its way down, according to Gallup surveys. After peaking at 40% in 2022, it’s now 37%. Meanwhile the number of Americans who have used GLP-1 drugs is rapi12.7×150k69411074
45Feb 20, '24View post on X12.7×150k4.1k217132
46Jun 29, '23Concept creep: Science paper shows that as we make progress on social problems (bullying, prejudice, etc), we broaden the definition of the problem. As a result, we fail to notice 12.6×149k697147123
48Jul 2, '25In the 18th century, there was a real chance of death at any point in life, and there wasn't a big peak in old age. It wasn't just higher infant mortality - the whole distribution 12×143k1.5k245405
49Sep 19, '25“Reich said it had been believed that natural selection was minimal among humans for the last 10,000 years, … Reich now believes Europe, at least, is in a period of accelerated sel11.9×141k1.2k98690
50Jun 10, '22Mao persecuted the pre-revolutionary elite savagely, with millions dying in famine. Their children were stigmatised, and were less educated and had lower income than average. But t10.9×04.1k716870
51Jul 11, '24Paper found that: 1) People believe that cynical people - who believe that human behaviour is guided by self-interest - are smarter than others. 2) In fact, cynical people are less10.7×127k1.1k211352
52Oct 3, '25ChatGPT's market share is shrinking, though it remains almost 3/4. Gemini has quadrupled its market share in the last six months. Data from @Similarweb10.3×123k948101202
53Oct 24, '25Sweden has reliable statistics unusually far back in time, which makes it a useful country to look at for long-running trends. @StatsSweden shows >40 mums are not a new phenomen10.3×122k1k120250
55Nov 13, '25HR has grown very fast over the last decade9.2×109k74685120
57Aug 5, '24On the contrary, modern history is the history of the mutual reinforcement of the civilising process and rapid economic growth.8.1×96k1.5k8282
58Feb 1, '24a lot going on here7.9×94k6823680
59May 31, '25retweet of locked account7.0×83k1.8k68117
60Oct 1, '25I don't think this is causal7.0×83k8801486
61May 16, '24Most people are not unhappy6.8×81k5142446
62Jul 24, '24It's crazy that people like Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen, and many others with a self-image as intelligent people can support this inane and vicious liar. The fact that he lies so mu6.1×72k6023134
63Oct 13, '25A neglected fact is that Sweden has had the highest growth in Western Europe over the last three decades, tax hubs like Ireland and Malta aside6.0×72k76790152
64Jul 29, '24These kinds of posts reflect badly on those who make and like them.5.5×65k6311313
65Nov 1, '22"Societies change their minds faster than people do: Generational replacement is what shifts public opinion"5.5×01.9k380551
66Jan 16, '22Pretty big difference US vs UK in this wave. Vaccination differences likely a big part of it.5.4×02.3k473100
67Feb 21, '24"Why Ozempic is cheating - Weight loss isn't supposed to be easy" Weight loss isn't supposed to be anything. Blind evolutionary forces made it hard to lose weight in the present en5.0×60k6627235
68Jul 1, '23"In her autobiography, Agatha Christie discusses how she never thought she would ever be wealthy enough to own a car, nor so poor that she wouldn’t have servants, thus neatly summa4.8×57k5978864
69Nov 15, '25Bismarck famously created the welfare state to impede the socialists. But a new paper finds the strategy backfired and instead increased support for the socialists. Via @Nonicoc4.7×56k675115350
70Aug 24, '25That a university lecturer would say this is appalling. While it's unusually direct, it's not uncommon. It's not just science-denialism - it's a direct attack on people for making 4.5×53k6503741
71Nov 24, '24Words are not spells to magically win a debate without giving an argument4.5×53k1.3k3087
72Mar 21, '25It's striking that we have such a relatively free market economy in spite of people's poor understanding of it and their aversion to parts of it. Presumably in part thanks to the i4.4×52k8952452
73Jan 3, '24Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence4.3×51k76361107
74Jul 30, '25The hatred that's being directed against her in the quote tweets is despicable. The discourse about violence against US business leaders is really disturbing. Not a good sign about4.2×50k6113533
77Aug 30, '24Reminds me of3.6×43k82351110
78Nov 14, '25On the contrary, kudos to them for funding this important and humane endeavour3.6×43k5883034
81Oct 29, '25The main takeaway should be that the reported height was on average strikingly honest/correct (in this study)3.3×39k857825
82Nov 6, '24No Harris raised and spent more. People overestimate the extent to which you can buy an election.3.2×38k1.1k4044
83Mar 16, '22Elites - in the media, academia, business, politics - are elites mostly because they're more competent than most people. This is plainly obvious but many people find so offensive t3.0×071839140
84Apr 4, '25I think a big part of the explanation for the current meltdown is that the most powerful person on the planet simply is not smart at all. If so, that seems like an argument for hav2.9×35k5501526
85Sep 16, '25Galileo: “Assume a frictionless plane.” Average person: “So… not the actual physical world?” Galileo: “Exactly. Now let me show you the elegant math.”2.9×34k5502333
86Oct 18, '24By the standards of the ancients, we've played God for the last few centuries. It obviously has worked - spectacularly well.2.9×34k5722435
88Nov 5, '25In addition to being biased it’s also so incredibly dumbed down, like they’re talking to a nine-year old. I think BBC going back to a more formal and measured language would help t2.7×32k7133521
91Dec 1, '18Some superstitious divination rituals may have spread because they functioned as adaptive randomization devices in contexts where people otherwise would have used decision procedur2.3×070034258
92Oct 25, '25In 1810, humble nails were 1/250 of US GDP, about the same as computers today.2.2×26k5864669
93Apr 5, '22Bertrand Russell: "The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts." Also Russell:2.1×0988112100
95Aug 26, '22I quite dislike the widespread contempt of economics and economists In my view economists tend to be clever and reasonable - including on non-econ topics And economics is imo the m1.8×08086053
98Jan 23, '22Actual individual consumption. On this alternative to GDP which deflates the inflated GDP numbers of tax havens, the US is more than 50% richer than the EU average, and 20% richer 1.6×056212695
99Apr 11, '20Paper: cognitive ability of top 5% more important for country wealth than mean cognitive ability; in turn more key than bottom 5%. Relatedly, is it more important to improve elite 1.5×051998127
100Feb 1, '21Bertrand Russell's prediction was quite wrong.1.3×05267441
101Oct 6We intuitively view common sense and social science as more separate than they really are. In fact, they are deeply intertwined. Common sense challenges, complements, and learns fr0.9×10k47418

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