(((The Daily Shot)))

@SoberLook171k followers

The Daily Shot is a graphical, no-hype global financial and economic newsletter (see sample: ).

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Across 99 organic posts

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Oct 17

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Posts 99 posts

#	Date	Post	↓ Outlier	Views	Likes	Reposts	Bookmarks
1	Jun 18, '24	US federal interest payments now exceed the defense budget.	57.1×	1.9M	1.7k	609	273
2	Apr 10, '23	The US banking system dumped almost $110 billion of MBS bonds into the market during the last week of March.	20.8×	702k	1k	330	128
3	Oct 18, '23	The S&P 500 equity risk premium is nearing zero for the first time in over two decades.	14.8×	501k	952	242	157
4	Oct 9, '24	The S&P 500 is experiencing the strongest YTD performance of the 21st century.	10.4×	351k	2.3k	359	431
5	Jul 25, '23	The S&P 500 equity risk premium hit the lowest level in two decades, which will be a headwind for longer-term returns.	9.8×	331k	753	227	106
6	Jun 26, '24	Canada's rent inflation continues to surge.	6.8×	229k	251	73	43
7	Oct 14, '24	The median value of US households’ stock portfolios surged to $250k this month.	5.0×	169k	534	116	125
8	Feb 27, '25	Retail investors have turned decisively bearish.	4.8×	162k	515	140	95
9	Jan 9, '24	The last time Germany's industrial production declined for six months in a row was in 2008/09.	4.7×	160k	361	120	42
10	Oct 15, '24	China’s credit growth continues to slow.	4.7×	158k	440	120	48
11	May 7, '24	The Suez Canal ship transit volume has deteriorated further.	4.3×	146k	470	173	59
12	Feb 16, '23	The US median CPI is above 7% for the first time in decades.	4.2×	141k	251	63	13
13	Dec 3, '24	US construction spending on data centers accelerates.	4.1×	137k	875	222	201
14	Dec 17, '24	Fund managers' enthusiasm for stocks has hit extreme levels, with cash allocations dwindling. Source: @BankofAmerica	3.9×	131k	386	126	154
15	Sep 17, '21	The Evergande credit contagion is spreading, with bonds of China's other leveraged developers tumbling.	3.7×	0	896	279	33
16	Jul 19, '22	BofA’s survey of fund managers shows extreme risk aversion. Source: @BankofAmerica	3.2×	0	795	219	75
17	Jan 5, '24	Shipping costs from Asia to Europe are surging as vessels are forced to avoid the Red Sea.	3.2×	107k	329	150	49
18	Mar 29, '23	Economists sharply raised projections for US core inflation.	2.9×	99k	367	110	18
19	Jul 22, '22	The manufacturing recession is here.	2.8×	0	728	204	49
20	Nov 1, '24	The S&P 500 concentration has reached extreme levels. Source: @BankofAmerica	2.8×	93k	320	98	114
21	Jun 4, '21	Get ready for more mass protests around the world. Global food prices are up 40% from a year ago.	2.8×	0	580	256	32
22	Dec 16, '24	China's bank lending continues to decelerate, putting pressure on GDP growth.	2.6×	87k	316	68	35
23	Nov 18, '22	Container shipping costs are down nearly 80% from a year ago.	2.3×	0	539	189	32
24	Sep 13, '22	Professional investors’ risk aversion has reached extreme levels, according to @BankofAmerica's fund manager survey. The second chart shows allocation to equities.	2.2×	0	418	186	72
25	Jun 22, '21	Forget margin debt. US retail investors are taking out personal loans to trade stocks. This is not going to end well. Source: @magnify_money	2.2×	0	456	156	31
26	Nov 14, '24	The S&P 500 risk premium (forward earnings yield minus the 10-year Treasury yield) has turned negative for the first time since 2002, indicating frothy valuations in the US sto	2.1×	72k	376	145	121
27	Dec 17, '24	Value stocks have underperformed growth by over 30% year-to-date.	2.0×	69k	233	56	57
28	Sep 26, '22	The drawdown in global government bonds (in dollar terms) has been unprecedented.	2.0×	0	494	163	34
29	Jul 5, '21	The Citi US Inflation Surprise Index hit another record high.	2.0×	0	456	153	32
30	May 3, '21	Container shipping costs continue to surge.	1.9×	0	422	173	29
31	Mar 12, '25	The US dollar is off to its worst start of the year in decades.	1.9×	63k	468	122	73
32	Aug 6, '24	US credit spreads have widened sharply over the past two business days.	1.8×	62k	330	102	67
33	Nov 10, '21	Global copper inventories hit the lowest level since 2008.	1.8×	0	428	149	27
34	Jun 17, '22	US manufacturing is in trouble.	1.7×	0	395	153	26
35	Aug 3, '21	The surge in container shipping costs shows no signs of abating.	1.7×	0	373	145	26
36	Sep 30, '22	Container shipping costs are collapsing (2nd chart shows the year-over-year changes).	1.7×	0	374	123	42
37	Jun 3, '22	The number of news articles mentioning “hiring freeze” jumped in May.	1.7×	0	471	106	28
38	May 11, '21	Bitcoin mining electricity usage is now estimated to be higher than the power consumption of Sweden and about half of the electricity produced in the UK.	1.7×	0	333	146	25
39	Nov 4, '21	Since 1971, across 152 countries, not one had inflation that averaged below 2%. Only 45 had inflation averaging below 5%. Source: @DeutscheBank	1.7×	0	391	128	41
40	Jul 8, '22	European electricity prices are hitting record levels as natural gas prices surge. @SPGlobal	1.7×	0	386	143	23
41	Aug 31, '22	Typically, a recession ensues shortly after the spread between the Conference Board’s expectations and current conditions indicators bottoms.	1.6×	0	370	125	55
42	Apr 15, '21	India’s pandemic situation is out of control.	1.6×	0	242	154	10
43	Mar 20, '20	The largest US investment-grade bond ETF ( $LQD ) has given up a decade worth of gains in a matter of days -	1.6×	0	293	157	17
44	May 3, '22	Forget all the debate about the 2022 global growth for a second. Here is a fact. Global manufacturing output is now contracting (PMI < 50) for the first time since the 2020 COVI	1.6×	0	359	139	31
45	Jul 25, '22	Germany enters a manufacturing recession.	1.6×	0	339	148	18
46	May 18, '21	Rotation from bitcoin to gold?	1.5×	0	433	96	10
47	Nov 9, '21	Global food prices continue to surge.	1.5×	0	313	149	17
48	Dec 23, '22	The 6-month decline in the US leading index has never been this large without a recession.	⚡ 1.5×	519k	333	133	33
49	Oct 5, '23	US multi-family housing loan delinquency rates continue to rise.	1.5×	51k	266	94	36
50	Jul 21, '21	Vaccine effectiveness in one chart: Source: @Lvieweconomics	1.5×	0	383	117	23
51	Sep 29, '22	German consumer confidence hits extreme lows.	1.5×	0	378	116	11
52	Apr 22, '21	Global food inflation is accelerating. Bloomberg’s spot agriculture index is at the highest level since 2013.	1.5×	0	272	136	25
53	Feb 11, '22	The market now expects the US yield curve to be inverted within a year. Will the Fed continue to hike when the curve inverts?	1.5×	0	341	107	24
54	Mar 1, '24	The supercore PCE inflation, closely monitored by the Fed, surged in January. This picture does not scream “rate cuts.”	1.5×	50k	273	88	42
55	Jan 13, '21	The volume of US equity call options is hitting unprecedented levels amid rampant speculative activity.	1.5×	0	306	112	23
56	Oct 27, '21	The median price of a new home in the US surpassed $400k.	1.4×	0	289	117	26
57	Sep 22, '22	Japan intervenes in the currency markets to strengthen the yen.	1.4×	0	401	88	10
58	May 11, '21	The copper-to-gold ratio and Treasury yields generally don’t diverge for very long. Something will have to give.	1.4×	0	336	108	26
59	Sep 14, '22	For two decades, Treasuries were an effective hedge for stocks – but no longer …	1.4×	0	337	87	46
60	Jul 21, '22	The stock market bounce has been supported by short covering.	1.4×	0	344	92	33
61	Oct 5, '23	US small banks’ credit card delinquency rates hit a multi-decade high.	1.4×	47k	225	80	24
62	Oct 25, '22	US online search activity for “late on credit card”:	1.4×	0	331	103	17
63	Oct 14, '24	US consumers' outlook on their longer-term financial situation has deteriorated to the worst level in over a decade.	1.4×	46k	327	85	58
64	Jun 9, '20	The S&P 500 feels just a bit overbought -	1.4×	0	304	115	28
65	Sep 13, '22	The US had its largest oil release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week.	1.3×	0	308	116	20
66	Aug 12, '22	European electricity prices continue to hit record highs.	1.3×	0	284	112	18
67	Nov 4, '22	The Treasury curve hasn’t been this inverted since 1981.	1.3×	0	312	113	22
68	Apr 7, '22	For those who follow the Dow Theory, this is not a good sign for the stock market.	1.3×	0	330	90	30
69	May 26, '21	US manufacturers are struggling with shortages of skilled labor. It’s amusing to hear politicians and the media talk about “bringing back” manufacturing jobs. The jobs are already	1.3×	0	306	101	11
70	Nov 15, '21	Merrill Lynch private clients’ allocation to bonds has never been this low. Source: @BofAML	1.3×	0	327	95	19
71	Dec 13, '21	The US money supply continues to surge.	1.3×	0	300	77	17
72	Jan 11, '22	Buybacks accounted for 40% of the S&P 500’s total return since 2011. Source: @true_insights_	1.2×	0	282	93	36
73	Mar 8, '21	US bank deposits are up over $3 trillion from the same time last year.	1.2×	0	299	85	14
74	Oct 28, '22	US pending home sales are crashing as housing demand deteriorates. Source: @Redfin	1.2×	0	278	112	28
75	Dec 15, '22	The Fed is concerned about this scenario: Source: @MUFGAmericas	1.2×	0	275	90	35
76	Aug 18, '21	S&P 500 drawdowns continue to get smaller as dip-buying becomes a habit.	1.2×	0	327	81	23
77	Feb 24, '22	The 1-month Treasury bill yield is in negative territory as investors rush into cash.	1.2×	0	299	98	14
78	May 17, '21	Shipping costs out of China continue to surge.	1.2×	0	257	116	20
79	Jun 20, '22	US wealth destruction has been massive in this cycle, which is likely to be a drag on consumption. Source: @bcaresearch	1.2×	0	248	98	34
80	Oct 27, '22	The percentage of the US yield curve that is inverted signals a recession ahead.	1.2×	0	293	83	28
81	Jul 7, '22	The US yield curve is signaling a recession.	1.2×	0	275	105	17
82	May 26, '21	US home prices continue to outpace wages.	1.2×	0	248	106	12
83	Oct 20, '22	The US is running low on diesel.	1.2×	0	310	74	13
84	Jan 10, '22	US used vehicle prices continue to surge.	1.1×	0	285	83	12
85	Nov 15, '21	Current valuations point to a “lost decade” in stocks. Source: @ISABELNET_SA, @GoldmanSachs	1.1×	0	278	71	32
86	Dec 13, '21	US lumber prices are surging again.	1.1×	0	285	82	6
87	Jun 9, '22	This has been the fastest decline in US housing affordability in decades. Source: @axios	1.1×	0	227	108	24
88	Jun 2, '21	Economists were surprised by the intensity of the recent price gains. The Citi Inflation Surprise Index hit a record high.	1.1×	0	244	83	19
89	Oct 26, '22	Get ready to pay more for that electric vehicle as lithium prices continue to surge.	1.1×	0	270	104	10
90	May 6, '22	The correlation between bitcoin and US growth equities is hitting record highs. Both are responding to the Fed’s policy tightening.	1.1×	0	271	82	18
91	Dec 8, '21	Excluding the US, global stocks have been flat since April.	1.1×	0	260	85	17
92	Aug 2, '22	The 10-year – 3-month portion of the Treasury curve is about to invert.	1.1×	0	300	82	10
93	Apr 1, '22	US real disposable income decouples from the upward trend as inflation takes a toll.	1.1×	0	261	96	15
94	Dec 9, '22	Container shipping costs are near the pre-COVID average.	1.1×	0	274	80	15
95	Oct 29, '24	So far, it’s been the best year for gold in decades.	1.0×	34k	291	109	39
96	Dec 8, '21	The Citi Global Inflation Surprise Index hit a record high in November.	1.0×	0	224	76	14
97	Dec 17, '21	German power prices have gone vertical as European natural gas costs soar (on geopolitical worries and tight supplies).	1.0×	0	236	72	7
98	Aug 2, '21	Bloomberg’s China HY index yield is nearing 13%.	1.0×	0	242	74	13
99	Nov 1, '22	Taiwan’s manufacturing contraction is accelerating. What does this tell us about global semiconductor demand and economic growth? Source: @SPGlobalPMI	0.9×	0	249	68	18
100	Jul 15, '24	China's credit growth hasn't been this slow since 1999.	0.9×	32k	274	96	54

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