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Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI1.5M followers

Founder/CEO Global Macro Investor, @RealVision. Figuring things out at the nexus of Macro, Web3 & the Exponential Age. Not a guru.

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1Jan 7, '24Remember: No leverage No FOMO Top 3 to 5 assets as main bag Self-custody (or multi-sig) with good wallet hygiene Only trade a small Degen bag <10% HODL over a longer time horizo8.1×2.3M9.7k1.9k2.2k
2Oct 31, '21Not on holiday yet so I'll allow myself one more thread... The markets are crazy! NFT are just jpegs! Dog coins! Cat coins! Tesla ! GameStop! Everyone is going to get burned! Don't6.4×020k6.3k4.2k
3Apr 4, '25People are yet to understand that we have a macro hedge fund manager running the Treasury, not an ex-Central Banker. He deeply understands liquidity impacts and how to drive financ5.9×1.7M17k2.6k5k
4Oct 7, '25I think it needs explaining that although I see an elongated cycle it doesn't mean my analysis is right. The breadth and depth of macro/crypto analytics framework I've added since 5.8×1.6M6.3k6451.4k
5Nov 4, '25I know no one wants to hear bullish ideas and everyone is scared and wants to fling poo at each other... but the Road to Valhalla is getting very close. If global liquidity is the 5.3×1.5M11k1.9k3.5k
6Nov 22, '24I bought $200k of $BTC back in 2013 and paper-handed it at $2,000 in 2017 but was pretty pleased with myself (it went on to 10x further in 2017!). If I'd had just kept that initial5.0×1.4M11k424668
7Feb 24, '25You guys all need to learn patience... This was 2017. Very similar macro structure: 5 x 28%+ pullbacks in BTC Most lasted 2 to 3 months before a new high Alts saw 65% corrections. 4.5×1.3M15k2.2k1.8k
8Dec 21, '24The biggest story in the history of the evolution of humanity is unfolding in front of our eyes and we have just seen a coupe d'etat in the US by tech accelerationists, and everyon4.4×1.2M6.3k5351.5k
9Apr 16, '25I know many of you want to see the updated version of the BTC vs Global M2 chart. Here it is... just a very small part of the weekly Macro Investing Tool (MIT) as part of RV Plus. 4.0×1.1M8.3k1.2k1.3k
10Mar 10, '25This too shall pass... Crypto is still feeling the tightening in liquidity from the stronger dollar and higher rates in Q4 2024. That is almost done and financial conditions are ea3.6×1M10k1.5k1.9k
11May 8, '25I think BTC dominance topped today. There are daily, weekly and monthly DeMark tops in place and the top is well below 2021 top and that was below the 2017 top. If that plays out, 3.5×980k11k1.1k824
12Jun 9, '21I'm presenting the case for crypto to 3,000 institutional clients and staff of a global investment bank this afternoon. Trying to do my part...and grateful for the opportunity. Wis3.5×021k1.4k46
13May 25, '21Something to get your head around: Head Line: A major asset class crashed 42% in 14 days, wiping out $1.02trn in value in an orgy of liquidation of people up to 100 x levered, with3.3×013k3.3k1.3k
14Dec 1, '24Dear $XRP Jedi Warriors... You were right, I was wrong. Well done! Dinosaurs still roam the earth ;-) I just want everyone to make $$ and you guys have walked through hell to get h3.2×899k12k1.2k326
15Dec 1, '24But..but..but...I thought $ETH was ded? Holy shit, thats a chart...strap in.3.1×872k7.9k713446
16Oct 11, '25No, it's not a bubble in tech stocks. We are less than 1 standard deviation from the trend. You can see what a bubble looks like in the late 1990's when we exploded out of the deca3.0×845k7.5k1k3.2k
17Mar 28, '25The waiting game is almost over...the 10 week lead is my preferred... but3.0×840k7.5k9151.2k
18Oct 18, '20Important Thread: If you don't think Central Bank Digital Currencies are coming, you are missing the big and important picture. This is going to be the biggest overhaul of the glob3.0×09.4k3.3k2.2k
19Oct 18, '21Tip: We are going to ATH's across all major crypto soon. Please, no last eyes, hubristic "told you" so or "I'm so amazing"posts or counting every thousand as we go. Just chill and 2.8×017k1.5k92
20Feb 21, '21Yes, there is a bitcoin revolution but there is a digital asset revolution going on that is beyond incredible. It is very early days, like BTC in 2013, but it's happening. Some wil2.8×012k2.1k611
21Aug 29, '25Let's talk about the Crypto Waiting Room... many key part of the crypto ecosystem are in the waiting room ready to launch. Let's look at a few (you will have yours too...) Total3 -2.7×757k6.3k9142k
22Jan 10, '25Why it's all going to be ok...(you guys need to have your own conviction, not rented from some bozo like me). Global M2 is repeating 2016/7...2.7×754k7k8011.1k
23May 19, '21These might be useful for you... BTC now vs 2013.2.7×013k2.5k567
24Apr 9, '25Maybe, just maybe, it was this easy...2.6×737k10k1.2k981
25Sep 9, '25You can't help but stare at this chart... Total market cap ex BTC and ETH.2.6×723k7.7k967615
26Apr 9, '25This feels a lot like Dec 2018 for those that were around. Powell signaled a pivot. I think we get the same, plus a trade resolution with China. Risk in stocks feels like 10% downs2.5×710k7.1k607779
27May 16, '21The biggest impediment to BTC adoption are bitcoin maximalists. Few understand this. Be more open. Don't try to ram your points home. Support people and don't be tribal and never b2.5×013k1.6k67
28Feb 16, '22Opinion - Discord is unusable. Endless feed of stuff, all the time, everything gets lost, zero curation, cant track anything, like 1000 people shouting at each other in a bar, like2.4×013k851239
29Sep 16, '241/ Close, very close. 1/ Global M2 vs BTC2.3×654k6.5k9511.3k
30May 21, '25Maybe, just maybe it was this easy... I'll chat more about it on tonights' Drinks with Raoul at 6pm ET2.2×626k5.4k540511
31Dec 28, '21There is a lot going on in the digital asset space but also nothing going on and that is the problem... Let me give you some thoughts... 1/2.2×08.2k1.9k1.6k
32Apr 22, '25Not sure..looks cute...might delete later... Maybe, just maybe, it was this easy all along. IF this works it will definitively prove that liquidity is THE dominant factor still in 2.2×603k8.8k1.1k1.2k
33Mar 2, '25The US Government is literally telling you that they are going to kickstart alt season by buying your bags... Something I never thought would be on my bingo card.2.1×594k13k1.5k415
34Oct 11, '25All of this is noise if you don't use leverage. There are only 2 questions you need to ask as a long term holder: Will tomorrow be more digital than today? Has the liquidity cycle 2.0×562k8k854663
35Dec 16, '20I'm about to present The World's Best Trade (aka Bitcoin) to 150 European hedge funds and asset managers. Wish me luck. #wallofmoney2.0×012k73772
36Jun 21, '21While we are all enjoying the volatility (actually I'm pretty impressed how people are taking it as par for the course and aren't overly freaked out!), here is what we are actually2.0×09k2.2k389
37Jan 21, '21Danger! : Im going to add a basket of 10 alts to my BTC and ETH bets, using this dip. Shill me your coin but with a quality paragraph WHY I should look at it. My knowledge base is 2.0×05.4k506576
38Nov 30, '20Ok, last bomb - I have a sell order in tomorrow to sell all my gold and to scale in to buy BTC and ETH (80/20). I dont own anything else (except some bond calls and some $'s). 98% 1.9×09.2k889243
39Oct 16, '21If you don’t see by now that the tokenization of everything is the biggest thing we have ever seen and will ever see, I cant help you as much. It dwarfs all other opportunities for1.9×08.9k1.5k756
40Nov 24, '24Scott Bessent, the new Treasury Secretary, is in favour of a weaker dollar and lower oil prices to drive US and global growth. That is all you need to know. It will drive financial1.9×522k6.5k629690
41May 23, '212013 is calling and wants it's mid-cycle bear market back...1.9×09.7k1.4k253
42Feb 27, '25SOL is 2 standard deviations oversold on the log regression channel, with the lowest RSI since the 2022 lows. Probability is wildly on favour of significantly higher prices in the 1.8×516k5.7k533582
43Oct 29, '21Just so we are clear - I am more than irresponsibly long ETH right now. I now have leverage but via calls. This is by far and away the biggest personal position of my entire life b1.8×08.6k898756
45Nov 17, '21I have been showing this spooky chart of ETH now vs BTC in 2017 in various forms. This is my live CIX on Bloomberg.... even nailed this sell off....to the day and price. What happe1.8×08.6k1.4k426
46Sep 21, '21Listening to Gensler and it's clear he is laying down the hardest case he can for regulation of digital assets. But my view is that he will likely get his way that most are going t1.8×06.9k1.9k796
47Feb 17, '25It's a puzzle and also sad to see so many bearish and nervous in crypto when BTC looks like this. Please zoom out. 1/1.8×494k6.2k668519
48Jul 16, '25Alts season can be amazing or devastating... First the tide doesn't lift all boats so asset allocation is crucial ! Second, remember it usually happens in rolling pumps on differen1.7×486k5.8k6221.1k
49May 23, '22It is so sad to see Twitter dissolve into angry people - value or commodity investors, BTC maxi's and other non-pragmatists - all screaming at anyone with different views. This is 1.7×09.6k73038
50Jan 27, '25Im traveling for the next week but just keep this summary at hand from this month's Global Macro Investor... It. Is. All. Noise. Calm down, touch grass, BTFD and Don't, Please Dont1.7×486k7.2k1.2k1.4k
51Nov 27, '21People have asked for books that influenced me on my macro thinking (not investing books mainly) Guns, Germs and Steel Sapiens Homo Deus The 4th Turning The Great Rupture The Crisi1.7×05.9k8672.4k
52May 12, '22Macro Views: As Ive talked a lot about, I think we are going into a pretty nasty recession (or are in one). Lay offs are coming as are house price falls. Demand destruction is ever1.7×06.8k1.4k1.2k
53Oct 2, '21Im finding it very hard to not get extremely bullish about the next few months. Almost every crypto chart looks coiled and ready for a big move after months of consolidation. Here 1.6×08.3k1.3k437
54Apr 6, '25Ah, the delicious smell of peak fear on Sunday/Monday...and max NOISE on X This too shall pass. I hope you are ready to look for spare cash under the sofa to add very very soon. In1.6×454k6.2k455274
55Nov 29, '24Seems like the Banana Zone wasn't such a stupid idea..plenty more to come, over time (with plenty of sharp corrections too along the way). Strap in. 🍌🍌🍌1.6×441k5.9k764667
56Jan 8, '22Just a reminder - You cant use daily or weekly charts if your time horizon is years. You're either in this for network adoption over time or you are a trader. I am not a trader in 1.6×07.5k1.1k633
57Aug 31, '25Crypto is still being adopted at twice the speed on the internet from 5m IP addresses vs 5m wallets (very like for like). 1/1.5×431k5.4k684915
58Aug 22, '25The BIG game is yet to be played... TOTAL3 - total market cap ex-BTC & ETH...1.5×429k6.3k715517
59Oct 12, '25All said and done, regardless of what sparked it, Friday was a "Flash Crash". Flash crashes usually recover in V-shapes back to their prior price/range and usually go on to make ne1.5×423k9.6k871376
60Feb 28, '25I will put out a Flash Update video later today with more details but the Global M2 vs BTC chart has largely played out now. Patience. Volatility is the price you pay for the retur1.5×423k6.4k743786
61May 8, '25Feels kinda fruity. 🍌 PHASE 2. Should run until August or so (with short, sharp corrections on route, obviously). Please enjoy your fruit responsibly.1.5×418k8.7k778811
62Jun 14, '25Keeps trucking along, doing its debasement thing... if 89% of all BTC's price action is explained by Global Liquidity then by definition almost all "news" and "narrative" is noise.1.5×417k7.6k1k927
63Jan 10, '25Yes, we are still in the Banana Zone... 🍌🍌🍌 Banana Zone Phase 1 was the break out last year, now the consolidation (like the 2016/17 consolidation after phase 1). This won't las1.5×416k7.3k8961.3k
64Sep 22, '25Same thing happens all the time... the crypto market is focused on a big breakout, gets levered long ahead of it, it fails at first attempt so everyone gets liquidated... only then1.5×408k8k709395
65Jun 28, '21I want to publicly thank Max Keiser for abusing me on Twitter, flushing out all the toxic Bitconners (new term), allowing me to block a couple of hundred to clean up my feed! Cheer1.5×09.1k29021
66Nov 13, '25So it appears crypto markets liquidated anyone with greed and now want to grind down anyone with hope 🤣😭 Yup, it's been frustrating and this grind is longer than expected but it 1.4×390k8.7k656313
67Oct 16, '22October is the month stock market crashes - It is also the month that kills bear markets... Let's dig in... 1/1.4×05.5k1.1k1.2k
68Feb 3, '25Remember: No leverage No FOMO Top 3 to 5 assets as main bag Self-custody (or multi-sig) with good wallet hygiene Only trade a small Degen bag <10% HODL over a longer time horizon Z1.4×386k7.4k912997
72Feb 14, '21Remember that as the market cap of BTC rises, it forces more institutions into it. The more institutions that adopt it, the more the others have to and the harder it is for regulat1.4×07.5k99092
73Dec 1, '24Ok, $XRP Jedi's...I know you are winning but can you leave some crumbs for the rest of us...blimey... its fucking rocket ship! The Banana Zone arriveth. 🍌1.3×359k5.7k496111
74Oct 1, '21The Bitcoin long term log chart looks pretty luscious. Who knows if the wedge breaks on first attempt but a consolidation pattern of this magnitude usually leads to a very, very po1.3×06.8k971157
75Mar 10, '25More patience, less drama.1.3×352k6.8k51792
76Mar 28, '22I used to be part of the "world is going to shit and is just just a matter of time until..." until I realized it was just an alluring meme. The world is always going to shit and it1.2×06.4k793459
77May 29, '24Bananas come to those who wait... Patience.1.2×341k6.8k798171
78May 23, '21I must admit that investing in crypto is not easy. Its not about price volatility, which is expected; its on one hand the people attack who you for not worshipping their favourite 1.2×07.1k47361
79Oct 30, '21As I said in my recent Real Vision Daily briefing, some people are saying what the next big macro play? when shall we go long/short of bonds? the $? what's next for oil? Everyone i1.2×06.4k923108
80Jul 30, '25Weirdly, the higher interest rates stay, the more they have to inject via liquidity to finance the debt, the higher assets go.... The Everything Code.1.2×333k7.3k799437
81Nov 9, '20The significance of the worlds greatest and most respected money manager - Stan Druckenmiller saying just now that he is long bitcoin can not be overstated. That has removed every 1.2×05.4k1.1k167
82Mar 5, '25With the dollar, rates and oil headed lower (all specific aims of Bessent), financial conditions are now easing fast and lead risk assets by a couple of months. Should signal a goo1.1×320k5.6k589443
83Apr 21, '21To be brutally honest, I stare at the chart of ETH/BTC and I see an enormous rounded bottom with potentially huge breakout just above....1.1×05.7k812245
84Oct 5, '21No idea if BTC breaks out on first attempt or corrects again first but this is one hell of a pattern.... the on chain analysis also suggests a breakout, along with S2F.1.1×06.5k73384
85Mar 3, '22I’m struggling to see how we are going to avoid a global recession. The odds are rising every day. Not a certainty yet but close.1.1×06.3k538139
86Apr 25, '21Bitcoin is nearly as oversold as it was in March 2020...1.1×05.9k842177
87Feb 20, '21Why no laser eyes? I love the solidarity but I think any celebration or hubris is dangerous. Heads down and focus on the really big picture and not a $100k milestone. Filter out al1.1×06.2k42947
88Nov 5, '22While everyone is speculating on Twitter’s blue tick, Elon has taken private one of the largest data sources on earth to train AI on human interactions and thoughts. And you though1.1×05.2k752262
89Jun 9, '21Job done. I think I did ok ;-) (I wasn't going to let you all down). Time for a glass of wine...1.1×06.9k27612
90Feb 8, '21If I had my investment life all over again, I would just have invested in anything that follows Metcalfe’s Law. I think it is a secular shift via technology and beats even old scho1.1×05.2k629620
91Jun 13, '22Remember December 2018? This is exactly what it felt like. Rising rates, oil at the highs, rising dollar, rising inflation, QT and markets breaking everywhere. Then the economy rol1.0×05.5k525134
93Nov 11, '24The hardest thing in a bull market is doing absolutely nothing. Compounding takes time, while mistakes from FOMO over-trading come easy.1.0×279k6.1k576334
94May 17, '21After the weekend FUD fest and shit fighting, let's get back to the important stuff. BTFD. BTC is forming a wedge most likely...perfectly normal correction and healthy.1.0×05.5k68891
95Nov 14, '21For the Bitcoin Maxi’s: when ETH launched it was at 0.0007BTC. 6 years later, it is at 0.07. That is 100x vs BTC over the period you called it a shit coin. The whole Pfeffer argume1.0×05.2k528174
96Dec 8, '21I can sense that people are looking for a certain future for markets but the truth is that there are no gurus. No one knows. We all do our best to use our experience and figure out0.9×05.5k48551
97Jun 7, '24Just landed in Sydney.. The border control agent stopped me and said "Don't worry mate, I won't fuck this up. I'm a RV subscriber " Welcome to Australia ! :-)0.8×235k7.6k22428
98Dec 17, '20Bloody hell, I must be doing at least something right or adding a small amount of value...I seem to have hit 300,000 twitter followers. Obviously, 200,000 are bots, but still... Th0.8×05.7k618
100Nov 6, '24So...0.7×183k5.4k39476

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