XOutlier
Download .zipAdd to Chrome

Nick Timiraos

@NickTimiraos493k followers

Chief economics correspondent, The Wall Street Journal • Author, "Trillion Dollar Triage”

Open on X
Top outlier
35.1×
Best organic post
Peak views
3.9M
Single post
Bookmarks
18k
Across 98 organic posts
Last scan
Oct 16
Community cache
Posts 98 posts
#DatePost↓ OutlierViewsLikesRepostsBookmarks
1Nov 25, '24Trump issues a threat to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico on the day he takes office.35.1×3.9M2.6k439181
2Mar 12, '23NEW: *Signature Bank has been closed *All depositors of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank will be fully protected *Shareholders and certain unsecured debtholders will not be p26.2×2.9M5k2.3k331
3Mar 11, '23How should the government treat uninsured depositors after a bank run? It's a question Jay Powell faced as an assistant Treasury secretary in January 1991, and it's recounted in my18.8×2.1M2.6k693480
4Aug 15, '24View post on X18.6×2.1M26k1.5k890
5Nov 14, '25SF Fed study examines 150 years of U.S. tariffs and find that they lead to lower inflation and weaker aggregate demand (which raises unemployment)15.6×1.7M2.3k520925
6Mar 13, '23Goldman Sachs: “In light of recent stress in the banking system, we no longer expect the FOMC to deliver a rate hike at its March 22 meeting with considerable uncertainty about the13.5×1.5M2.4k508116
7Mar 16, '23NEW: Borrowing at the Fed this week +$148.3 billion – net discount window borrowing +$11.9 billion – the new Bank Term Funding Program Subtotal: $160.2 billion +$142.8 billion – bo13.2×1.5M1.3k322163
8Sep 10, '23Fed officials are turning more cautious about raising rates too high now that inflation is finally showing signs of the rapid declines that they’d long anticipated A rate pause in 13.1×1.5M1.5k421126
9May 3, '23FOMC DECISION: • Fed raises rates by 25 bps as expected • Policy statement softens the rate guidance in a way consistent with past pauses • Deletes reference to “some additional po12.6×1.4M1.9k731132
10Oct 14, '25Powell: The Fed could end QT in the coming months12.1×1.4M2.1k304139
11Apr 9, '25The Fed is facing a dreadful set of tradeoffs. Prices are likely to rise in the coming months as tariffs bite. But uncertainty is freezing hiring and capex—bad for growth. Cut rate11.2×1.3M2.2k400350
12Feb 2, '25One year ago (almost to the day), Scott Bessent wrote to his investors: “Tariffs are inflationary and would strengthen the dollar—hardly a good starting point for a US industrial r11.2×1.3M3.9k1.1k906
13Feb 10, '23New CPI weights changed the inflation picture slightly at the end of last year, showing somewhat less deceleration than before Core CPI rose at 3-month and 6-month annualized rates11×1.2M1.6k338156
14Dec 17, '22Why the housing downturn of 2022-23 will look very different from the bust of 2006-0910.9×1.2M2.4k430465
15Sep 18, '23Almost every hard landing looks at first like a soft landing What's standing in the way of a soft landing now: -The Fed staying too high for too long -A too-hot economy -A rise in 10.7×1.2M1.9k466251
16Aug 23, '24The Powell pivot is complete. Powell is dovish across the board—from the same stage where he two years ago signaled the Fed would accept a recession as the price of restoring infla10.6×1.2M3.3k916411
17Nov 30, '24How does this pair with the idea of creating a “federal” bitcoin “reserve.”9.5×1.1M2.3k247265
18Mar 7, '23Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) asks Powell what he would say to 2 million people losing their jobs if he keeps raising rates? A testy exchange leads to this Powell redirect: "Wi9.5×1.1M2.6k21674
19Sep 17, '24The Fed faces a finely balanced set of considerations over whether to cut by 25 or 50 basis points at its meeting that begins today. The case for 50 comes down to what Fed official9.1×1M2k480322
20Jan 10, '23Fed research: The surge in retirements since 2020 "accounts for essentially all of the shortfall" in labor force participation rates "More than half of the increase in the number o8.9×1M2.3k611319
21Jan 22, '23Fed officials are preparing to slow interest-rate increases for the second straight meeting. They could begin deliberating how much more softening in labor demand, spending and inf8.8×987k1.5k42089
22Sep 25, '25NEW: Every living former Fed chair (Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen) ... have joined several former Treasury secretaries (Rubin, Summers, Paulson, Geithner, Lew) ... and CEA chairs (Hu8.6×970k8.9k2.6k793
23Jan 4, '23Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari says he penciled in another 100 bps in rate rises this year, for a terminal policy rate of 5.4% This is despite "increasing evidence" that i8.6×964k1.3k31478
24Jan 4, '23The FOMC minutes provide next to no discussion around how much officials want to raise rates at the February meeting. But officials did shout out their concern that an "unwarranted7.8×878k1.5k31861
25Feb 4, '23Policy makers have to worry about “the next inflation problem.” If the economy continues to add more than 200,000 jobs a month without a large increase in the labor supply, “whatev7.7×868k1.3k31199
26Mar 13, '23There is a saying that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates until something breaks. A big surprise over the past year had been that nothing broke. No more.7.7×862k2.2k467111
27Mar 20, '23The Fed faces one of its toughest calls in years: whether to raise rates again to fight stubbornly high inflation or take a timeout amid the most intense banking crisis since 2008.7.6×858k1.4k35164
28Aug 22, '25Powell cautiously tees up a cut: “The balance of risks appears to be shifting.” While labor markets remain in balance, “it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked s7.6×857k1.5k427151
29Jan 18, '24Was it all "just supply" that caused inflation? Fed governor Chris Waller is not having it. "If these are temporary supply shocks, when they unwind, the price level should go back 7.6×851k1.4k293205
30Mar 19, '23NEW: The Fed and other global central banks announce an expansion in the frequency of dollar swap line operations. The standing swap lines currently conduct weekly dollar loan oper7.5×844k1.3k410102
31Apr 10, '25Despite a decent auction, the 30-year Treasury yield rose 6 bps to 4.849% on Thursday. Yields are up every day this week by a cumulative 0.458 percentage point, the largest four-da7.4×834k2.3k671508
32Mar 22, '23The Fed raised rates 25 bps The decision was unanimous The terminal rate projection is unchanged at 5.1% FOMC statement modifies guidance: “The committee anticipates that some addi7.4×832k2.1k702106
33Sep 18, '24The Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 bps. The median projection has two more 25 bps rate cuts in 2024, for a total of 100 bps this year. Fed governor Miki Bowman dissented in favor 7.2×811k2.8k879347
34Feb 6, '23Goldman Sachs: “We have cut our subjective probability that the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months from 35% to 25%.”7.1×799k1.9k464121
35Mar 11, '23Greg Becker, the CEO of Silicon Valley Bank, was a director of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco from 2019 until today via @michaelsderby6.9×779k1.8k462101
36Jul 31, '24FOMC holds rates steady No explicit signal of a September rate cut, but some very meaningful changes in the top of the statement: -The dual mandate is back -Inflation has been down6.2×692k1.4k446171
37May 22, '25“What we are learning is that there will be no material fiscal consolidation. The U.S. will continue to run extremely large deficits as far as the eye can see.”5.9×661k1.6k294250
38Jan 31, '24Rates unchanged FOMC statement gets a big rewrite. Tightening bias gone, but in a way that says a cut isn’t necessarily imminent. “The Committee does not expect it will be appropri5.8×648k1.8k573218
39Aug 22, '25Powell’s last rodeo: Every year at Jackson Hole, he joins his peers—this year, Andrew Bailey, Christine Lagarde, and Kazuo Ueda—for a “walk” (for the still photographers) outside t5.8×648k1.4k212193
40Nov 15, '25Former Fed governor Adriana Kugler resigned from the central bank after preparing to submit financial disclosures for 2024 that Fed officials could not certify because they include5.6×625k1.8k387217
41Feb 7, '23Powell, paraphrased: Despite many people believing (or hoping) the Fed's recent inflation projections were too high because inflation would come down faster, the Fed didn't see it 5.5×623k1.5k23949
42Sep 12, '25Reuters: A loan estimate for an Atlanta home purchased by Fed governor Lisa Cook, shows that Cook had declared the property as a “vacation home,” according to a document reviewed b5.5×613k1.8k375168
43Sep 17, '25September FOMC *The Fed cuts rates by 25 bps *A narrow majority of officials pencil in a total of at least 3 cuts this year *Statement changes are dovish *Miran is the only dissent5.4×601k2k555275
44Mar 8, '23Powell makes one notable change to his opening statement in his delivery: "If — *and I stress that no decision has been made on this* — if the totality of the data were to indicate5.3×595k1.3k24044
45Oct 4, '24A very strong employment report Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 254,000 in September The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% Revisions are +72,000 for July and August5.2×580k1.4k32565
46Apr 14, '25Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who took a dim view of his predecessor’s debt issuance policy by alleging it inappropriately influenced financial conditions, said Treasury could 5.0×562k1.4k289248
47Sep 8, '25Bill Pulte's father and stepmother claimed tax exemptions on primary residences in two states, leading local tax officials in Michigan to revoke the one on a property in Bloomfield5.0×560k3.8k1k232
48Jun 24, '25Powell: If not for the expectations of higher inflation this year from tariffs, "we would have continued cutting."5.0×560k1.7k353131
49Feb 22, '23FOMC Minutes: "Almost all" thought 25 bps was appropriate but a "few" favored or would have also agreed to a larger 50 bps increase.5.0×557k1.4k19432
50Mar 8, '23Powell is asked by Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D., Mass.) to answer a "yes or no" question on whether the Fed will pause rate increases. Powell: "I don’t do yes or no."4.8×534k1.9k13626
51Dec 16, '24Powell is (again) trying to find the right gear for monetary policy amid signs the labor market is less wobbly and inflation is a touch firmer than they appeared in September. He f4.7×528k1.3k267177
52Apr 30, '25Real GDP fell -0.3% in the first quarter But a better measure of underlying domestic demand—real final sales to private domestic purchasers (GDP less inventory change, net exports,4.7×522k1.7k415289
53May 22, '25Fed governor Chris Waller to FBN: "Everybody I've talked to in the financial markets, they're staring at the bill, and they thought it was going to be much more in terms of fiscal 4.5×504k1.9k442231
54Feb 1, '23FOMC decision: 25 bps increase (approved unanimously) FOMC statement: Minimal changes to the forward guidance “Ongoing increases” language is retained4.4×491k1.6k48098
55Apr 7, '25Goldman Sachs note tonight is titled: “Countdown to Recession.” “We are lowering our 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raising our 12-month recession probability from 35% 4.3×485k2.5k584323
56Oct 29, '25October FOMC decision: -The Fed cut rates as expected by 25 bps. -There were two dissents. Schmid favored no cut, and Miran wanted 50 bps. -The Fed will end QT on Dec. 1. MBS redem4.1×463k1.5k418264
57Aug 11, '25July CPI is the big release this week. Core prices are expected to have risen 0.31%, which would bring the 12-month increase to 3.1% (from 2.9% in June and 2.8% in May). Headline p4.1×458k1.3k360248
58Apr 22, '25Trump's trade war hits small businesses: “Basically, what we’re doing is eating our inventory and hoping that it will last us until this gets settled,” said the CEO of Basic Fun, a4.0×449k2.5k609190
59Jun 6, '25Japan's Nikkei is reporting that competing views among Trump's advisers have delayed efforts by Washington to strike a deal with Tokyo. One source says that at one point, Lutnick, 3.9×437k1.9k409277
60Sep 27, '25President Trump posts a drawing of himself firing Fed Chair Jay Powell3.9×437k2k356121
61Jan 8, '25Chris Waller says he expects inflation to continue declining to 2% and doesn’t sound — at all — like someone ready to declare or even hint at an end to cuts. Key quote: “My bottom-3.9×434k1.4k281174
62Jun 17, '25There are good reasons to think the Fed would be preparing to cut interest rates this week due to recent improvements on inflation—if not for the risk that tariffs pose to prices. 3.8×426k1.3k232136
63Apr 8, '25Trump's economic advisers are saying "not it" when asked about who came up with the formula to calculate different countries' tariff rates Bessent, Tuesday: “I wasn’t involved in t3.8×423k1.8k265173
64May 11, '18"It's not right." The owner of a Maryland crab processor who voted for Trump is upset over a shortage of seasonal immigrant labor. "Trump can fix it with his pen."3.5×02.1k1.1k22
65Jul 23, '25The president says that if the Fed lowered short term rates, interest expenses for the U.S. would fall by $1 trillion per year. The U.S. spent $1.1 trillion on interest expenses in3.4×387k1.5k240115
66Aug 14, '24What the July CPI means for the Fed • The July CPI extends a run of much cooler inflation and makes a September rate cut from the Fed as close to a lock as these things get. • This3.4×380k1.1k313108
67Nov 7, '24The Fed cut rates by 25 bps, as expected. The decision was unanimous this time. The FOMC statement had minimal changes.3.3×368k1.4k425109
68Nov 7, '24Q: Would you leave the Fed if the president asked you to go? Powell: No.3.2×355k1.7k23057
69Apr 22, '25Trump put the country on notice that he will make the Fed a scapegoat for any economic fallout from his trade war and also delegitimize the institution if it doesn’t cut rates. "It3.0×336k1.4k256113
70Nov 7, '16When the AP called the election 2012: 11:38 pm, Tuesday 2008: 11 pm, Tuesday 2004: 11:19 am, Wednesday 2000: No call 1996: 9 pm, Tuesday3.0×02k1.8k2
71Apr 8, '25The S&P 500 has fallen more than 12% since Trump's Liberation Day announcement. The 10-year Treasury yield is slightly higher than it was before the announcement.2.9×328k1.4k262107
72Mar 11, '25Trump didn’t inherit a flawless economy. Solid growth and lofty stock values obscured a frozen housing sector and cooling job markets But Wall Street is newly nervous those vulnera2.9×323k1.7k251245
73Sep 18, '24Takeaways from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference: · It’s definitely a series of cuts, albeit a "recalibration," ahead: “We have in fact begun the cutting cycle now.” · The2.9×321k1.8k436303
74Mar 15, '15Time needed to reach 50 million users Telephone: 75 years Radio: 38 years Angry Birds: 35 days2.8×01.2k2.3k0
75Nov 13, '22Fed governor Christopher Waller on the October CPI report: "The market seemed to get waaaa-aaaay out in front.... I just cannot stress this is one data point." "We've still got a w2.6×03.3k660174
77May 3, '22How's this for an endorsement: At the annual shareholder meeting, Warren Buffett urged people to buy Trillion Dollar Triage, my book about the economic-policy response to the Covid2.6×03.5k329543
78Oct 30, '22Consumers have a big cushion of savings. Corporations have lowered their debt-service costs. For the Fed, a more resilient private sector means that when it comes to rate rises, th2.5×02.2k629261
79Mar 7, '17This op-ed ran 8 years ago yesterday. The Dow is up 215.7% since then2.4×02.2k1.4k0
80Oct 21, '22The Fed is barreling towards a fourth straight 75-basis-point rate rise at the November FOMC meeting. That meeting could serve as a critical staging ground for future plans, includ2.4×02.3k742132
81Nov 16, '16Tech CEOs, call your offices2.3×01.6k1.4k0
82Nov 2, '22Fed hikes by 75 basis points. New sentence in the FOMC statement signals more increases but hints at possibly smaller increments2.3×02.6k796143
83Apr 4, '25Powell starts talking about the May FOMC meeting and then adds: "It feels like we don’t need to be in a hurry." This is Fedspeak for don't expect a cut at that meeting.2.2×251k1.7k294110
84Sep 18, '24Powell casts the Fed's 50-bps cut in non-scary terms: "We are committed to maintaining our economy’s strength." "This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropri2.2×250k1.4k26570
85Nov 2, '22The 3 takeaways from Powell's press conference: 1) The Fed could step down to a slower pace in Dec even if inflation data don't improve much 2) If there had been new estimates of t2.0×02.5k580137
86Aug 14, '24The core CPI rose 0.17% in July, in line with estimates. This lowered the 12-month rate to 3.2%, the lowest since May 2021. The six-month annualized rate fell to 2.8%, the lowest s1.7×193k74425052
87Jul 25, '16DNC leak gives Trump campaign opening to tie it all back to potential vulnerability of Clinton's personal servers1.6×01.2k1k0
88Feb 25, '19Question: Do you think the president has a grasp of macroeconomic policy? Janet Yellen: No, I do not.1.6×01.5k74316
89Dec 14, '22FOMC: 50 basis point increase approved -No changes to statement -Most officials see rates ending 2023 between 5% and 5.5%1.5×01.9k49190
90Jun 1, '18A source close to the White House says today's breach of protocol by Trump wasn't due to a breakdown in process. "It was a breakdown in his conduct."1.4×01.4k67910
91Dec 14, '22Powell on changing the Fed's 2% inflation target: "We're not going to consider that under any circumstances."1.2×01.7k27728
92May 12, '17An incredible moment: The president of the United States says you can't always trust what his spokesmen say.1.2×01.2k6180
93Dec 5, '22Fed officials have clearly signaled plans to raise rates by 50 basis points at their meeting next week Elevated wage pressures could muddy the debate over 50 v 25 in February and l1.2×01.4k32357
94Nov 23, '20Joe Biden has selected former Fed chair Janet Yellen to serve as the Treasury secretary She would be the 78th secretary of the Treasury and the first woman to have the job w/@KateD1.1×01.2k34015
95Oct 22, '22"I think the time is now to start talking about stepping down. The time is now to start planning for stepping down," said San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly during a talk at the1.1×01.4k26667
96Nov 2, '22Powell: "The question of when to moderate the pace of increases is now much less important than the question of how high to raise rates and how long to keep monetary policy restric1.1×01.5k28557
97Oct 6, '22BofA: Clients are asking if we foresee an imminent shift from the Fed “given other central banks' actions and the sharp risk asset moves. We think these concerns are misplaced and 1.0×01.4k27238
98Nov 11, '22Goldman Sachs reports that its intra-day estimate of U.S. financial conditions from its financial-conditions index eased by over 50 basis points today following the rally triggered1.0×01.3k22072
99Sep 29, '21Powell is asked "Are you overdoing it?" Powell's answer: "The historical record is thick with examples of underdoing it."0.8×01.3k12319

Scan another creator

@
@karpathy@levelsio@paulg@naval@marclou@illyism

Run this on any account.

XOutlier builds this table for every public profile you open on x.com, with live data and every post, not just the top 50.

Add to Chrome Download .zip