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Nate Silver

@NateSilver5383M followers

Founder of Silver Bulletin: , and cohost of Still Counting podcast!

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#DatePost↓ OutlierViewsLikesRepostsBookmarks
1Feb 26, '23Welp. The behavior of a certain cadre of scientists who used every trick in the book to suppress discussion of this issue is something I'll never forget. A huge disservice to scien16.8×8.2M22k3.9k1k
2Feb 11, '24You don't demonstrate your seriousness that Trump is an existential threat to democracy by going through the motions to renominate an 81-year-old with a 38% approval rating who 75%10.2×5M25k3.1k1.3k
3Sep 15, '24I've been around these premises long enough that you hopefully won't mistake me for woke, but the Haitian immigrant stuff is profoundly racist and you should substantially lower yo10×4.9M30k1.8k858
4Mar 31, '25It's not just stupid but cringe, we're past the point of no return where people defending what's going on are redeemable.7.2×3.5M25k1.4k1.3k
5Feb 27, '23This is so refreshingly honest. The Bad People thought the lab leak might be true, therefore as journalists we couldn't be expected to actually evaluate the evidence for it.7.2×3.5M20k2.8k603
6Oct 9, '20Repeating myself and others here, but the reason Lindsey Graham won't get tested despite having been exposed to many COVID+ people is because if he reveals a positive test and has 7.2×0102k26k338
7Nov 6, '20I don't know, but it sure seems to me like not calling the race when the outcome is obvious in states like PA and NV gives the president more time to spout misinformation.6.6×0110k15k209
8Jul 17, '24It's just so weird living through this real-life Emperor Has No Clothes Moment. He obviously shouldn't be president for 4 more years. Everyone knows this. It's incredibly revealing5.1×2.5M23k3.4k1.7k
9Jan 3, '18Gotta be honest: On a night like tonight, I'm still pretty pissed at those journalists and news organizations which treated Hillary Clinton's email server as a matter of apocalypti5.0×069k18k4
10Oct 6, '20Wait, so Trump not only rejects stimulus funds that would probably have helped his re-election chances, but *also* does so in a way to make sure that he personally will take blame 4.2×063k10k265
11Nov 9, '24Kamala should still go on Rogan, I bet she'd be pretty funny now that the pressure is off.4.0×2M28k673371
13Nov 20, '18If you're one of those news organizations that treated Clinton's private emails like they were a national emergency, the solution isn't to treat Ivanka's private emails like they'r3.6×055k11k92
14Nov 7, '20Anybody who's like "we'll that was a pretty good showing for Trump!" should consider how Hillary Clinton was treated as the World's Biggest Loser after an election with the same El3.5×055k9.6k395
15Mar 24, '16Exclusive @FiveThirtyEight projection on what the Electoral College would look like if women refuse to vote Trump.3.4×026k23k1
16Jan 12, '21Honestly the idea of Mike Pence being president for 12 hours or something, so that everyone who looks back at the list of U.S. Presidents generations from now is like "WTF happened3.4×063k5.8k186
17Sep 13, '18I know there's a lot of competition but this is the worst thing he's ever tweeted.3.3×052k11k80
18Oct 7, '17Hard to think of any difference between Weinstein & Trump other than one of them was his PARTY's NOMINEE FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.3.2×043k14k0
19Nov 4, '20Worth mentioning that if you stopped counting ballots *right now*, Biden would win with this map. So Trump is reliant on ballots counted after Election Day for his comeback chances3.2×048k9.2k458
20May 11, '25Bluesky honestly feels like a miracle where you take the most annoying people in the world and stick them in a broken elevator together.3.0×1.5M24k1.3k1.1k
21Oct 4, '20Looking forward to some random Sunday afternoon 3 years from now when I'm like "why do I follow like 100 epidemiologists on Twitter?"2.9×056k4.5k179
22Nov 11, '24Since this election is settled this hopefully won't take on too much of a partisan valence but can we just agree it's ridiculous that it takes California several weeks to count its2.9×1.4M26k1.5k338
23Nov 6, '20BIDEN LEADS IN PENNSYLVANIA2.8×050k4.6k66
24Nov 5, '20I'm not sure it's really sunk in yet, even among reporters, that we're probably going to get 2 runoffs in Georgia on Jan. 5 that will determine control of the Senate.2.7×043k5.4k179
25Sep 23, '20OK this is real bad tho2.6×042k7k432
26Oct 29, '18This is obvious I guess, but if you want to cut down on bothsidesism, put people on TV who have subject-matter expertise acquired through reporting or research... not generalists w2.5×038k8.3k82
27Oct 3, '20"RBG dies 6 weeks before the election and the ceremony at the White House to name her replacement turns into a COVID-19 superspreading event" is, on the one hand, a remarkably stra2.5×042k6.1k362
28Jul 19, '17If we don't know if Clinton really won the popular vote then we also don't know if Trump really won the Electoral College.2.5×028k13k0
29Nov 7, '20ABC NEWS: BIDEN WINS2.3×042k4.2k74
30Oct 15, '20This is not a subtweet of anyone in particular and it's going to annoy some people since I have a lot of PhD followers/friends and also I'm a stubborn guy myself but...one thing I'2.3×034k2.7k562
31Nov 11, '20So Trump operatives are bragging about how the news media has called Alaska and North Carolina for them... while refusing to accept that the same news organization have called Penn2.3×035k6.2k248
32Feb 18, '18So far, Parkland is *not* fading from the news the way that mass shootings usually do. (The graph shows Google searches for the term "gun control".) The students speaking out makes2.1×028k9k1
33Sep 2, '20Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points: 0-1 points: just 6%! 1-2 points: 22% 2-3 points: 46% 3-4 points: 74% 4-5 points: 89% 5-6 points: 982.1×020k6.7k1.2k
34Nov 4, '18The one thing I have no patience for is dudes (it's almost *always* dudes) who spend 15 minutes on something you've been studying for 10+ years and act like they've solved Fermat's2.0×034k3.8k133
35Sep 30, '17So, it totally fits the pattern that Trump is attacking the mayor San Juan. She challenged him and she's a woman (and Hispanic, obviously.)1.9×023k9.1k0
36Jan 9, '21If there's a significant political backlash for impeaching Trump for **inciting an insurrection** then we're probably completely fucked no matter what.1.9×032k4.7k182
37Jan 7, '19Imagine being a political columnist who could write about literally any topic you wanted and, given everything going on in American politics these days, you decided to write about 1.8×029k5.4k24
38Feb 12, '20So apparently the candidate in 3rd place is a bigger story than the candidate in 2nd place, who in turn is a bigger story than the candidate in 1st place? OK.1.8×032k3.2k108
39Jan 6, '21I'm too tired for long takes but on a scale from 0 to 10 on how bad this is for the GOP, it's maybe like a 9, not just because of the immediate implications, but also because it ma1.8×033k2.8k188
40Sep 28, '20Sorry if this point is a little obvious, but it's pretty hard for Trump to sustain an argument that the NYT taxes story is "fake news" when he won't release his taxes himself. Obvi1.8×030k4.4k69
41Apr 5, '21Just 222 COVID deaths reported in the US yesterday, which is the fewest since March 23, 2020.1.8×028k4.4k243
42Nov 5, '20If 90% of the ballots are from Clark County, there's no reason not to call Nevada.1.8×030k3.6k113
43Nov 7, '20View post on X1.8×028k4.6k208
44Nov 1, '18If Republicans have a good night on Tuesday and think they won the midterm on the basis of immigration/xenophobia/race-baiting, just imagine how much Trump is going to turn the dia1.7×022k7k42
45Nov 6, '20Whichever network calls this first will look good in retrospect.1.7×034k1.9k53
46Apr 13, '216 cases out of 7 million people. What a disaster. This is going to get people killed. And it's going to create more vaccine hesitancy. These people don't understand cost-benefit an1.7×025k4.8k285
47Jan 6, '21ABC News has projected that Jon Ossoff has won his US Senate race in Georgia and therefore that Democrats will gain control of the US Senate.1.7×030k3.4k56
48Sep 27, '20You don't need a fancy algorithm to know that Trump is losing, pretty badly at the moment. The Supreme Court pick doesn't seem to be helping him. The COVID situation may be getting1.7×025k4.1k166
49Nov 4, '18I wish I could forgive you from not knowing how math works, but some things are truly unpardonable.1.7×028k3.8k36
50Aug 6, '19Tomorrow's NYT print edition. Not sure "TRUMP URGES UNITY VS. RACISM" is how I would have framed the story.1.6×018k2.8k85
51Dec 3, '19If the Democratic Party wants a field that's representative of its members and its voters, it probably shouldn't have two states as white as Iowa and New Hampshire vote first every1.6×026k3.7k79
53Aug 17, '17As Trump’s problems mount, the media’s obsession with Clinton’s email server–literally the most-covered issue of 2016– looks worse & worse.1.6×020k6.4k1
54Nov 12, '18The recent rhetoric from Trump, and often other Republicans, trying to delegitimize election results is awfully dangerous. Maybe the most openly authoritarian move he's made so far1.5×016k6.7k97
55Jun 14, '18One shouldn't underrate how much the media's obsession with Clinton's emails stemmed from its obsession with fending off accusations of liberal bias. Trump had... LOTS of issues...1.5×020k5.8k58
56Apr 19, '18There really needs to be a semi exclamation point for when a period conveys too little enthusiasm in a work-related email but using the full exclamation point makes you seem like a1.5×023k4.4k40
57Nov 26, '18H e ' s r u n n i n g1.5×025k4k40
58Oct 11, '20Trump can still win. But on the other hand, if you're deriving a model from history, it implicitly presumes some baseline level of competence from a presidental campaign that may n1.5×025k3.2k103
59Jan 12, '19I’m not trying to be a jerk but the Times still owes its readers an explanation about what the f*** was going on with this vector of its reporting in 2016.1.4×021k4.9k88
60Oct 14, '17Sorry for the random aside but I feel like Sarah Palin is under-discussed as a predecessor/precedent for Trumpism.1.4×022k3.4k0
61Mar 29, '19Just want to get this out of the way so I only have to say it once: It's a big deal that an openly gay man is a serious contender for a major party's presidential nomination, and i1.4×025k2.7k58
62Mar 15, '20I've written and deleted a version of this tweet like 12 times, but I think overall people should direct more of their ire at governmental officials and less at random dumb individ1.4×025k2.4k81
63Mar 29, '18The thing about the Parkland students isn't that they're always spot-on—they've had better and worse moments as communicators. But they're at least as effective at politics as most1.4×022k4k17
64Nov 3, '20Those warnings we gave you about not paying too much attention to results until you're sure a county is fully reported... you're already ignoring them! But I'll say it again: don't1.3×022k3.5k47
65Nov 6, '20Going by the popular vote, this will probably be the 2nd-least-close election since 2000.1.3×024k2.3k108
66Feb 12, '20Personally, I'd say the candidate who won 1.5 states (Sanders) is the frontrunner over the candidate who won 0.5 states (Buttigieg), especially if that candidate is also leading na1.3×023k2.1k70
67Feb 12, '20I know a Sanders win is somewhat priced in, but I'm not sure why the story is about who finishes in 2nd and 3rd place instead of him winning, especially if it looks like a decently1.3×022k2k62
68Jul 17, '18What if—and hear me out because this will sound CRAZY—instead of interviewing a few voters at a time in a bar in Pennsylvania, we interviewed HUNDREDS of voters, chosen at random f1.3×022k2.9k23
69Nov 6, '20Those Maricopa ballots have probably closed down Trump's path in Arizona. He needed to do much better.1.3×024k1.9k48
70Nov 5, '20Biden has won the last 600k ballots counted in Pennsylvania by 40 points, which is much bigger than the 22-point margin he needs the rest of the way out.1.3×021k2.9k167
71Apr 30, '18Hopefully they can use their investigative skills to solve the mystery of why someone they hired as a comedian told jokes.1.3×021k3.6k9
72Sep 30, '20I'm not sure why trying to fight the debate to a messy, unwatchable draw is supposed to be a good strategy for Trump when he's 7 points behind in the polls.1.2×021k2.7k61
73Nov 1, '20Tired of people framing "Trump will declare victory prematurely" as a media story. Most likely—in part because the White House has telegraphed it so much in advance—the media will 1.2×019k2.9k83
74Nov 4, '20Michigan now tied and there's every reason to think the remaining votes will be pretty blue.1.2×020k2.7k70
75Dec 6, '18We're changing our rating on this race to Lean Prison.1.2×017k4.3k40
76Mar 1, '21Sorry if this is a bit random, but the fact that Biden easily won the Democratic primary despite having little support from blue-checkmark liberal elites is something that ought to1.2×018k1.7k226
77Oct 24, '20I'm not some sort of COVID alarmist... I've tried to stay pretty even-keeled and have been burned by being too optimistic at times... but I find the rising case rates in the US (an1.1×020k2k101
78Oct 2, '20So... is Trump going to self-quarantine?1.1×020k1.6k30
79Mar 11, '20I'm not trying to piss people off but it's a little rich that some prominent voices who spent months saying how awful Warren was compared to Bernie are now furious at Warren for fa1.1×019k2.4k103
80Oct 3, '20I don't want to speculate *too* much about the political ramifications of…this…but that there apparently was a superspreading event, and that there are photos from the event of peo1.1×019k2.4k101
81Oct 17, '17View post on X1.1×018k3.3k1
82Sep 18, '18(Whispers: It's kind of insane to have irrevocable lifetime appointments for *anything*.)1.1×018k2.9k21
83Nov 4, '20If you just go by what ABC News has called (we're on the conservative side tonight)... Biden's win probability would go from 69% to 85% based on NE-2 being called! That one elector1.1×019k2k165
84Jan 7, '21After the past 48 hours, I would not want to be one of those Republicans like Josh Hawley who hitched my star to the notion that I could offer some kindler, gentler, smarter versio1.1×021k1.5k63
85Nov 18, '20Feels like everyone's running with their Why-Democrats-Lost takes even though Democrats won.1.1×019k1.3k107
86Nov 19, '20It's hard to strike the right balance between, on the one hand, pointing out how the erosion of democratic norms around accepting election results is highly concerning in the long 1.1×019k2k99
87Aug 11, '20I'm guessing that Biden will win California now with this Harris pick.1.1×020k1.2k31
88Nov 3, '20You're not going to learn anything useful about the election outcome on here until 7pm, i.e. when they start counting votes.1.1×018k1.8k56
89Apr 3, '18When someone regularly cites outlier polls instead of the polling average it's an **extremely** reliable tell that they're a bullshitter.1.1×016k3.3k11
90Dec 30, '20Hawley seems like the sort of politician who will be heralded by pundits as the new GOP frontrunner in some future election year and then will finish in 5th place in Iowa.1.0×019k1.3k62
91Nov 8, '18Democrats won The Ossoff Seat.1.0×018k2.4k25
92Oct 29, '20I don't want to be too snarky but Trump needs to close a big polling deficit and this is the message on a day with 80k new COVID cases and a 940 point decline in the Dow.1.0×017k1.9k181
93Mar 19, '20There's a shortage now, how many ventilators you making @elonmusk?1.0×019k1.9k48
94Oct 4, '20I understand he wants to project strength, but polls show that a large majority of the public doesn't think Trump took COVID seriously and that colors their response to his illness1.0×018k2.2k60
95Nov 20, '20Perhaps a bit far-fetched, but Romney actually has a decent amount of leverage, if he and one of Collins, Murkowski, etc. threatened to become "Independent Republicans" or what hav1.0×018k1.3k88
96Jan 7, '21It's for extremely understandable reasons, but people seem to be sleeping on the significance of the fact that Democrats **just won two runoffs in Georgia** to **claim control of C1.0×019k1.3k64
97Nov 9, '20It's hard to tell whether GOP leaders are being strategic and cynical (e.g. hoping to keep their base excited) when indulging claims of election-rigging, or are just wholly disconn1.0×017k1.8k104
98Nov 3, '20I'm too tired to make this point eloquently, but part of what happens at the end of a not-especially-close election is that there's a lot of effort to create ambiguity, and you hav0.9×017k1.5k98
99Aug 9, '18I don't know, I watch these clips where Ocasio-Cortez is supposedly making huge gaffes and it seems like her policy knowledge is...probably about on par with or maybe a bit ahead o0.9×016k2k20
100Nov 16, '20There's this dumb argument circulating that if you'd known in advance what would happen—i.e. Trump beating his polls—you shouldn't have Biden e.g. a 90% chance of winning. Actually0.8×017k69353

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