Justin Wolfers

@JustinWolfers452k followers

Prof @UMichEcon & @FordSchool | Fellow @BrookingsInst | Intro Econ textbook author | |

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1May 22, '23Senator, I have put together the chart showing the two variables you were trying to link.91.9×6.8M35k5.7k673
2Sep 20, '25Critical part of the President's new $100,000 charge for H1-B visas: The Administration can also offer a $100,000 discount to any person, company, or industry that it wants. Replac49.2×3.6M16k4.2k1.6k
3May 23, '23Senator, I am simply here to provide charts that illustrate your insights. Here is the chart that I believe you requested.47.5×3.5M18k1.6k398
4Oct 24, '24Focusing for a moment on the POLICIES at play. Voters were asked whether they supported 100 different policies, but weren't told whether the policy was from Trump or Harris. Nearly41.8×3.1M28k6.7k3.5k
5Jan 23, '25The folks obsessively posting about egg prices for the past few years have gone strangely quiet just as egg prices hit an all-time high.34.1×2.5M39k5.8k1.5k
6Jun 30, '23This guy's worth about $40 million, and took over $300k in PPP loans from the government just a few years back. He asked the government to waive his loans, and indeed, his future l32.7×2.4M21k5.5k211
7Sep 11, '24Perhaps men are too emotional to be President.28.6×2.1M115k14k912
8Feb 15, '25You don't need to be a coder to figure this out. Simply type: tab age You'll discover a smattering of 99 year olds, a few 100 year olds, a couple of 101 year olds, and a pileup of 23.7×1.8M18k2.3k1.5k
9Apr 12, '25I just want to tip my hat to the crack team of White House economists who were able to discover--in just a few short days--that the U.S. is dependent on China for smartphones, comp22.6×1.7M45k5.9k846
10Mar 12, '25I believe this is a world first: An intra-day tariff chart.20.4×1.5M30k2.1k1.3k
11Sep 12, '24I drew you a picture and hope you like it.19.4×1.4M20k3k1.3k
12May 8, '25Trump's "big" trade deal is with the UK: - It's a framework not a deal - They're our 11th largest trading partner - They're only 3% of US trade (97% to go) - They *already* charge 19.2×1.4M9.8k3.1k1.1k
13Sep 13, '24Senator @JDVance said that economists disagree about whether tariffs lead to higher prices. So this week, the University of Chicago surveyed economists and asked them exactly this 19.1×1.4M14k5.2k1.4k
14Aug 29, '24This is what happens when you submit the policy proposals of both candidates to similar scrutiny.19×1.4M19k5.2k2.1k
15Nov 16, '25It's a revealing moment... J.D. Vance welcomes a two-legged robot helping on the job site. But if that helper is a person named Jose, he calls it a threat. Same tasks, same product15.6×1.2M11k2.2k973
16Apr 12, '25Whether you love or hate tariffs, you can't help but be impressed at the detailed policy planning, the transparency of the policy process, the credibility of Administration announc15.6×1.2M15k1.6k682
17Aug 5, '24You are right, Senator. The S&P 500 is down -3% so far today, or as I like to say, up only +9% so far through 2024, up +14% over the past twelve months, or +55% since Trump lef15.1×1.1M20k4k555
18Jul 7, '25The U.S. is imposing a 25% tariff on Korea because of trade deficits that it claims are "engendered by Korea's Tariff and Non Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers." But Korea has a 14.9×1.1M14k4.2k982
19May 5, '25If Trump is serious about tariffs on movies, it's a very dangerous escalation. Tariffs have not traditionally been applied to services, and the United States is a massive net expor14.9×1.1M8.5k1.9k510
20Feb 18, '25And here's the number of RECIPIENTS of social security in each age bucket with the death field set to false (and recipient set to true). A mere 89,106 are aged 99+, not the tens of14.4×1.1M7.2k1.9k1.1k
21Apr 3, '25Impressed the crack White House economic team not only found the Heard and McDonald Islands—an uninhabited Australian territory which is a two week sail from the mainland requiring14.3×1.1M17k2.6k1.1k
22Mar 13, '23"I'm not saying 12 white men would have avoided this mess, but..." Genuinely disgusting take from the @WSJ opinion page.12.5×928k6k747112
23Oct 4, '24Senator, I don't want to get caught up on facts, but the share of American-born folks in their prime working years who have jobs is higher than at any point during the Trump admini12.4×920k7.4k2.5k469
24May 23, '23Senator, I have checked the Census Bureau footnotes for you.12.3×909k7.6k48646
25Apr 26, '25The President said of the U.S. economy: "We are a department store, and we set the price. I meet with the companies, and then I set a fair price, what I consider to be a fair price11.8×876k12k3.9k2.2k
26Sep 6, '24View post on X11.7×869k10k2.8k869
27Oct 25, '25"Mate, I can't do anything but tell it to you straight. This Canada thing is literally the dumbest thing I've ever heard. The Canadians ran an advertisement showing Ronald Reagan b11.7×866k22k4.3k573
28Jun 14, '25mood11.5×850k12k1.2k896
29Jul 8, '25Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Japan because they didn't strike a deal. But... Japan's chief trade negotiator was in DC for talks and couldn't get a meeting with Treasury Secretary 10.9×807k13k3.9k562
30Jun 21, '23His celebration omits one key fact...10.1×751k6.7k326159
31Mar 11, '25This chart seems to suggest that something is going wrong in the United States, specifically. ( )10.0×742k9.6k2.2k1k
32Aug 26, '25Yes, the stake are large. Very large.9.9×733k8.5k2k909
33Oct 16, '20The election is now officially Mr Rogers v. Your Crazy Uncle.8.7×055k9.2k141
34Jul 11, '25In February, Trump imposed a 25% across the board tariff on Canadian goods. Chaos ensued. He backed down. Today he imposed a 35% across the board tariff, instead. And somewhere in 8.6×636k12k1.4k206
35Jul 16, '25The PPI explicitly excludes imports.8.4×621k9.8k910279
36Aug 9, '24Summarizing this crazy week in stocks. S&P 500 Last Friday's close: 5,346.56 This Friday's close: 5,344.16 => A decline of four hundredths of a percent. => The smallest w8.2×610k5.9k1.1k198
37Sep 20, '24Most robust economic recovery in the G-7.8.2×610k7.6k2.6k654
38Jul 5, '19Microeconomic decisions create macroeconomic phenomena...8.0×034k15k1.2k
39Oct 16, '24The results of a recent WSJ survey of market economists suggests that they predict uniformly better economic outcomes under Harris than Trump.7.9×590k8.8k3.5k549
40Apr 13, '20Not a single economist or public health expert.7.9×034k9.7k363
41Apr 2, '25Trump says these tariffs will raise roughly $6 trillion. Assuming that's over a 10-year window, that's $600 billion per year. There are 134 million households, so this is about $5,7.8×578k7.7k1.7k447
42Oct 25, '25Wait until he hears that Reagan didn't trust the Russians.7.8×577k32k4.4k273
43Jul 3, '25View post on X7.7×570k9k2.1k456
44Nov 7, '20Guys, the same people who booked the wrong Four Seasons are running our response to covid.7.5×050k6.3k218
45Sep 24, '24New crime data just dropped (yesterday). It's your choice whether to believe these carefully collected statistics, or the unsubstantiated claims made by political hucksters. The nu7.5×556k5.8k2k607
46Jul 4, '25Reagan promised tax cuts would pay for themselves. Blew out the deficit. Bush promised tax cuts would pay for themselves. Blew out the deficit. Trump promised tax cuts would pay fo7.5×553k9.9k3.5k529
47Jul 12, '25It is now clear that average tariffs on August 1 are set to be higher than they were on "Liberation Day." Only a fool would look back to the chaos of early April and conclude that 7.2×534k7.5k1.8k335
48Jul 10, '25My plan to revive American manufacturing is to: raise the price of inputs like steel, aluminum & copper; create shortages of rare earths; invite retaliatory tariffs; cut R&7.1×526k13k2.6k934
49Apr 11, '25Congratulations, Mr Secretary, you have just discovered the Trans Pacific Partnership.6.9×512k14k1.6k261
50Mar 27, '25It seems clear that the U.S. has destroyed something pretty valuable in forcing Canada to look elsewhere for trusted allies. And I'm simply left asking: To what end? I see no gains6.8×508k7.5k1.2k215
51May 17, '25Real Capitalism™ is the President telling an individual corporation how to set its prices.6.8×504k7.9k1.2k284
52Oct 24, '24It's an astonishing feat of mathematics to raise taxes on 95% of Americans all in the name of cutting taxes on average.6.6×493k7.1k1.6k698
53Aug 28, '24View post on X6.6×491k6k1.1k370
54Sep 26, '24It's weird how many conservatives forget who was President in 2020, and equally weird how many of their best talking points assume the rest of us forgot too.6.5×479k5.8k782114
55Aug 9, '24crowd: trump: "bacon has quadrupled" bacon:6.4×474k6.7k938191
56Aug 28, '24posting without comment6.0×448k5.4k1k206
57May 1, '20I don’t think I’ve said this loud enough, so here goes: Every economist I know believes that the single best way to ensure a robust recovery is to beat the bug. There’s no economic6.0×033k8.3k236
58Aug 9, '24I made a table to evaluate this claim.6.0×445k7.3k982138
59Apr 27, '25Every factory on earth, except those located in the United States, can get the inputs they need from China, without paying an additional 145 percent markup.5.9×441k9.4k1.8k370
60Aug 29, '25They're now saying it out loud: The Administration's goal is to undo the political independence that Congress granted the Fed, so that the President can directly set rates.5.5×406k7.3k2.6k443
61Sep 13, '25A sneering midwit with inherited wealth got the facts wrong, and accused an honest public servant—Lisa Cook—of fraud. His meddling created a crisis well beyond his portfolio, under5.4×400k8.3k2.5k242
62Mar 19, '25View post on X5.3×396k8.6k1.8k356
63Jun 11, '25I'm not sure why the President Trump is boasting that he's charging Americans a 5.5 times higher tax rate than President Xi is charging the Chinese people.4.8×360k8.9k2k241
64Aug 1, '25Firing the BLS Commissioner — the wonk in charge of the statisticians who track economic reality — is an authoritarian four alarm fire. It will also backfire: You can't bend econom4.6×344k8k2.4k298
65May 30, '24Neither member of the Trump-Pence ticket will vote for Trump '24.4.5×335k9.3k649142
66Apr 9, '25"It's an extraordinary question to have to ask you, but do you think Donald Trump actually understands how international trade actually works."4.5×333k7.5k2.2k1.1k
67Sep 3, '25Political party discovers that higher tax rates lead to higher tax revenues.4.4×330k9.7k872186
68Jun 5, '25It's just awful when you buy a guy a perfectly good election, and he won't even do whatever you want.4.3×321k12k1.6k215
69Sep 10, '18This is totally true if you exclude 1948Q1,1948Q2,1950Q1,1950Q2,1950Q3,1950Q4,1951Q1,1951Q2,1951Q3,1952Q1,1952Q4,1953Q1,1953Q2,1954Q4,1955Q1,1955Q2,1955Q3,1956Q4,1958Q3,1958Q4,19594.3×021k6.9k78
70Jun 7, '25I make over $1600 per month now eating eggs. They pay you.4.3×317k9.1k756122
71Jul 31, '25Worth remembering: The Constitution explicitly gives the power to set tariffs to Congress. They could stop this nonsense by the end of the day.4.3×316k11k2.7k162
72Mar 20, '20No other country has been this far into the pandemic and still had the number of cases growing at the rates the U.S. is seeing. ()4.0×013k6.8k862
73Oct 8, '20Just as women get paid 20 cents on the dollar less than men, Harris appears to get 20 seconds less on the minute than Pence.3.8×023k4.4k43
74Nov 15, '25The scale at which the President is profiting is staggering. Perhaps past presidents snuck out with a million or so — a briefcase full of cash. This time, it's billions, which you 3.7×276k8k2.3k358
75Jul 24, '25We are all Jay Powell.3.6×270k13k2k213
76Apr 30, '25In economics, when folks can afford fewer things at higher prices, we call it a decline in real income, and a widespread fall in real income is called a recession.3.3×247k13k2k404
78Jun 9, '18Average tariff rates charged by G-7 nations: USA: 1.6% EU: 1.6% UK: 1.6% Italy: 1.6% Germany: 1.6% France: 1.6% Japan: 1.4% Canada: 0.8% (Source: )3.0×09.8k6.8k110
79Nov 18, '22We’re finally going to see a Musk product in self-driving mode.2.9×019k2.6k142
80May 6Announcing: @PlatypusEcon — a Substack, YouTube channel, and podcast built around one idea: Economics is one of the most useful, surprising, and weirdly beautiful subjects in the w2.9×214k1.5k285301
81Aug 26, '25Calling tariff revenue a “windfall” is like calling your speeding ticket a bonus for the police budget. Sure, it’s revenue. But for you, it’s a tax.2.9×212k9k2.7k451
82Aug 12, '20Basically, an admission that Uber's key innovation was to skirt labor law.2.8×016k3.9k118
83Apr 29, '20This is stunning: Nearly half of the Q1 decline in GDP can be attributed to healthcare, which is presumably delaying of elective procedures. It's a strange reality that in the mids2.8×012k4.5k548
84Sep 16, '25"this is the only time it's happened in yours or my lifetime, which is that we're on the cusp of a recession and the cause is not some external factor. It's not a war, it's not an 2.8×207k9.4k2.9k324
85Mar 24, '20As you read various arguments floating around that perhaps we should ease public health restrictions to help the economy, I want you to notice that IN NO CASE ARE THESE ARGUMENTS B2.7×014k4.1k116
86Oct 17, '20World leader who managed the pandemic transparently, scientifically, and successfully, is easily re-elected.2.7×017k2.7k78
87May 21, '20“When you say per capita, there's many per capitas...”2.6×09.3k2.2k283
88Apr 17, '25Trump's first term included two economic masterstrokes -- warp speeding the vaccine, and appointing the Fed Chair who engineered a soft-landing -- and oddly enough, he disavows bot2.6×192k7.1k797306
89Aug 28, '20How are universities meant to persuade students not to risk parties when the first frat to violate those rules is... The White House.2.5×014k3.2k89
90Sep 5, '25WE GOT A KITTEN!!!2.4×179k12k36462
91Feb 4, '17Amazing diversity as Trump's senior staff is sworn in: White men of many heights, tie colors2.3×07.4k5.5k1
92Dec 2, '18Worth watching and reflecting on.2.0×09.4k2.8k301
93Nov 30, '16Every savvy CEO will now threaten to ship jobs to Mexico, and demand a payment to stay. Great economic policy.2.0×06k4.8k0
94Aug 10, '22Holy cow: There was ZERO inflation last month. That's the headline number, which is well below expectations of +0.2%. Also a good core inflation reading: +0.3%, also below expectat2.0×010k2.5k157
95Mar 31, '21Some context on how Biden plans to fund his infrastructure package.1.9×09.7k2.7k385
96Dec 3, '18It's just astonishing how much time and effort the entire Republican establishment has put into deconstructing every sentence @Ocasio2018 says, even as they nod their heads silentl1.8×011k1.9k30
97Apr 12, '22Lotta headlines today about "inflation at 40-year high." We have a nice test of whether the media is symmetrically interested in good news because in the next month or so, it's lik1.8×09.6k2.1k68
98Feb 3, '21If South Dakota were a country, it would have the highest number of covid deaths per capita of any country in the world.1.7×08.4k2.6k101
99Feb 6, '18A future economics student is going to look back at 2018 and ask me why the U.S. government embarked on a massive fiscal stimulus when unemployment was 4.1%. I have no idea what to1.2×05.8k1.6k2
100Oct 31, '1750% are below the *median*, sunshine.1.0×06.1k1.1k2
101Oct 2, '20While shooing my son up to bed last night, he asked me to carry up an armload of stuffed animals. I told him that was his job. Okay, he said, but will you pick up any I drop? I agr1.0×07k60599

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