Julian Brigden

@JulianMI285k followers

Co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, a global macroeconomic research firm (@MI2Partners). | Creator of MacroCapture, a platform for savvy investors.

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#	Date	Post	↓ Outlier	Views	Likes	Reposts	Bookmarks
1	Nov 5, '25	I smell a rat. Why does #SamAltman #openapi need the taxpayer to guarantee their debt if they are going to make hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars? Has he just done a cas	148×	2.1M	12k	2.2k	1.7k
2	Jan 8, '23	In February 22, we compared US tech stocks to the bubble and suggested selling the #Nasdaq .Back then, one of our favourite charts had just hit its March 2000 highs. Well on Friday	24.5×	348k	734	122	96
3	Nov 10, '24	It is with deep sadness that I want to let all the friends and followers of @nglinsman know that Nick passed away yesterday. He was a great macro thinker and a valued member of the	17.5×	249k	752	26	24
4	Feb 4, '22	Equity investors, especially in the US could be forgiven for thinking that the most important events of the last 48hrs were #Facebook and #Amazon numbers. WRONG! It was the 6 sigma	16.1×	0	3.4k	647	295
5	May 27, '23	She's really making this stuff up as she goes along. Shameful	15.4×	218k	436	37	17
6	Mar 25, '25	I'm DEEPLY suspicious of why PE suddenly wants to get their sticky fingers on 401k cash. I suspect their real motivating driver is that in the new world of structurally higher rate	14.1×	201k	1.6k	246	243
7	Feb 8, '23	FINALLY, the market is coming around to our view, ie under the current policy framework, rates stay higher for long, which isn't 3 months. Rather as Williams said today, rates will	11.6×	164k	383	51	34
8	Jan 11, '23	#housingmarket #stocks The strength of the homebuilders has been perplexing. One explanation is the New Home Sales data has remained strong. But this data doesn't reflect cancellat	11.5×	164k	350	69	29
9	Apr 3, '23	Despite its relative size, the manufacturing cycle leads the broad economy. So, when the chair of ISM Manufacturing says "all 10 sub indexes in negative territory... I'm expecting	10.4×	148k	393	82	33
10	Feb 19, '22	I understand that inertia is a powerful force. But I find it amazing that investors still think that US stocks are the place to be invested and will continue to outperform the rest	9.6×	0	1.8k	339	271
11	May 17, '24	We believe #bonds are in a structural bear market that, absent intervention, will see yields rise for the next +20yrs and you need a new hedge. Note that on a total return basis ie	9.5×	134k	364	56	107
12	Dec 18, '24	I have a lot of respect for @RaoulGMI work, and he's had some great calls. But I was asked today if I agree with his idea that we are in a banana zone, i.e. a period of exponential	9.0×	127k	441	23	41
13	Mar 3, '22	I can't take my eyes of this chart. Sure, the trend break could just be Ukraine and potentially false. But if it's real, it suggests is that we are starting the biggest rotation tr	8.9×	0	1.7k	320	298
14	Sep 11, '24	J Powell called supercore CPI "the most important category for understanding the future evolution of core inflation." Yet, he's going ahead with cuts with supercore CPI at over 4.5	8.4×	119k	391	62	65
15	Jan 25, '23	Tesla's claim that they will grow annual average deliveries by 50% doesn't pass the smell test. How do you grow at all, if customer deposits for cars fell for the 2nd quarter and i	7.9×	112k	322	31	5
16	Jan 23, '23	As bond yields have dipped, we have gone back to the P/E multiplication to justify higher stocks. In the case of #NVIDIA the result is that the PE has doubled and is approaching 70	7.7×	109k	260	37	28
17	Oct 3, '23	In 1998 Greenspan pivoted from fighting inflation to deflation. A seminal event which flipped bond and equity correlations and gave birth to 60/40 portfolios, risk parity etc, whic	6.5×	93k	384	61	57
18	Mar 1, '23	At mortgage applications for purchase drops to 28-year lows, the divergence to New Home Sales grows. How is that possible? Is it cash buyers, as we saw post CV-19 or as I suspect,	6.3×	89k	237	39	25
19	Apr 12, '23	Markets are celebrating lower inflation. But I fear they are forgetting that the reason inflation is declining is for the wrong reasons! #unemployment #recession	6.0×	85k	329	60	22
20	Dec 18, '24	A question for wealth managers. How do you reconcile buying MicroStrategy, a company that literally produces nothing but is essentially a leveraged single-stock ETF, with your fidu	5.9×	84k	333	23	24
21	Jun 27, '25	We are bombarded by "S&P at new highs". But it's MONEY ILLUSION. By staying in US stocks, you are getting relatively poorer. Yes, in $ terms, the S&P is up 5% YTD, but flat	5.8×	82k	500	101	118
22	Nov 19, '24	A real miracle. Last week, when Nick's @nglinsman son Edwardo, eduardoglinsman@icloud.com, reached out to me on WhatsApp to tell me about his father's death, this was the conversat	5.7×	82k	267	12	21
23	Sep 10, '20	What defines a bubble? A great story is essential. In fact, the better the story the bigger the bubble. Then lots of liquidity and finally a classic bubble chart. For example, #bit	5.7×	0	1.1k	270	91
24	Aug 28, '24	Since June, #NVDA has continued to trace the pattern of a classic bubble. So now it's make or break. If it fails to make new highs and moves lower, the bull trap closes, confirming	5.6×	79k	260	39	64
25	Mar 31, '22	When one of the best macro shops in the business says this, you should pay attention. #inflation #stocks #FederalReserve #bonds	5.4×	0	922	250	160
26	Dec 16, '19	To help the repo market the Fed will inject approximately $500bln over the next month. But have we been here before? In 2000, because of fears related to Y2K, they announced specia	5.3×	0	845	326	74
27	Apr 2, '25	Now, do you believe me? Investors have been delusional with all the talk of banana-shaped exponential gains. It's the banana skin zone, pure and simple!	5.0×	72k	239	10	12
28	Feb 1, '23	I'm not a fan of Jolts but the Powell is and with the gap between Hires and Openings almost back to the highs, it's clear that far from pivoting, the Fed's job isn't done. At this	4.9×	70k	281	34	13
29	Jul 7, '22	*CALPERS UNLOADS RECORD $6 BILLION OF PRIVATE EQUITY AT DISCOUNT ...if you are looking for a black swan it's in private equity!	4.9×	0	1.1k	172	59
30	Jul 26, '22	In the last 50yrs, whenever New Homes for Sale materially diverged from New Homes Sold, the end result was always a recession and most of the time ugly ones. #housingmarket , #rece	4.1×	0	750	197	118
31	Sep 5, '23	Stock bulls assume that with CPI falling, the Fed will soon cut. But in an inflationary economy with full employment, you have to target nominal GDP, and the if Fed’s own forecasts	3.8×	54k	294	52	28
32	Jan 4, '21	In the short term markets are extremely frothy and vulnerable to retracement. But is this the key chart for 2021? Broad commodities have broken from a massive wedge that's held for	3.8×	0	707	171	101
33	Mar 5, '24	#Apple hasn't innovated for years. As analysts invented excuses to justify higher prices driven by indexation, buybacks and CB liquidity. NOT fundamentals. It's now materially unde	3.8×	54k	230	30	23
34	Apr 16, '25	We bounced exactly off the initial target level. But rather than capitulate, retail investors trained to buy the dip continue to build positions. Unfortunately, we have failed at a	3.6×	52k	249	30	57
35	May 10, '24	This isn't good. #inflation	3.6×	51k	273	51	45
36	Aug 8, '25	I wouldn't fade this move yet. But if people don't think we're well into an AI bubble, I would point out that the highs of the bubble, the PE of Cisco was just over 200. #Palantir	3.6×	51k	286	39	52
37	Sep 12, '25	Let me be clear: I think #TSLA isn't a stock, it's a cult, and Musk is a snake oil salesman, albeit a very skilled one. The question is whether he is good enough to push #Tesla sto	3.4×	48k	447	41	35
38	Sep 30, '20	The real "second wave", as layoff reaccelerating fast. Here's NI JOBCUTS on Bloomberg	3.3×	0	472	259	33
39	May 10, '21	I'm calling it! The rally from $539 to $780 was a confirmed bull trap. So the #TSLA bubble has bust and the stock should now be sold on any rally for years to come.	3.3×	0	661	118	62
40	Apr 13, '23	In the last few weeks, I've written 3 pieces outlining why our work suggests that the US economy is heading for a hard landing. Thanks to the Economist front cover, now I know I'm	3.2×	45k	235	17	12
41	Jan 13, '22	This is one of my favourite models. What it suggests is that the $ stands on the cusp on a rapid 30% decline. If it's right, then by the end of 2022 the investment landscape will l	3.1×	0	559	90	79
42	Aug 10, '22	The Fed is trying to reset market expectations by using an uber dove Kashkari, to emphasise a hawkish message. There is NO PIVOT and hikes together with QT will continue into 2023.	3.0×	0	673	102	41
43	Apr 3, '24	Having utterly failed at home integration, the TV, the car, etc., we are now meant to believe it's home robots. I think the word that perfectly sums up #Apple at present is "flound	2.9×	41k	320	28	16
44	Dec 10, '24	US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: I AM CONCERNED ABOUT FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY, DEFICITS NEED TO BE BROUGHT DOWN......a parting gift? You can't make this **** up!	2.9×	41k	362	30	19
45	Jun 29, '22	Finally, the analysts are waking up to the next big risks facing #stocks i.e. massive #earnings downgrades . Our work suggests that the margin pressure is now more severe than the	2.9×	0	564	142	56
46	Mar 13, '23	Before equities cheer the drop in bond yields. They need to understand, that the bond market is betting that the tightening of bank lending that's coming, more than outweighs the F	2.9×	41k	300	48	19
47	Feb 2, '22	People have suggested, the weakness in equities since the start of the year is similar to 2016, when the S&P subsequently gained 25%. They are DELUSIONAL! Back then we saw unpr	2.8×	0	579	112	66
48	Mar 1, '22	As tensions boosts oil and inflation expectations, Treasury Breakeven rates are rising. While nominal yields fall. The net effect, is that real yields have dropped 80bps unwinding	2.8×	0	551	122	79
49	Mar 10, '20	MSCI the creator of all the ETFs that epitomise passive investment vs the 1920's bubble. Is this a spurious correlation now? If the analogy holds watch for a fail bounce.	2.7×	0	446	139	72
50	Apr 29, '20	Druckenmiller said "Earnings don't move the market, its the Federal Reserve...focus on the movement of liquidity". He learnt the hard way in 2000, buying the top of the Nasdaq as t	2.7×	0	541	116	58
51	Apr 13, '22	Equity bulls are yet again jumping on the idea of #inflation peaking. We don't see it as long as #PPI keeps surging. Instead, we have 2 options 1) Companies eat the price increases	2.6×	0	555	102	34
52	Oct 8, '25	In March, when we recommended buying GDX, the gold miner ETF, one reason was the possibility of capital rotation away from US tech. After a 75% rally, it has been a good trade. But	2.6×	37k	405	36	93
53	May 14, '20	#Gold Breaking $100 wide wedge. First target 1820.	2.6×	0	580	119	17
54	Jul 18, '21	In the late 70s, rising house prices helped pump up CPI, pressurising Federal budgets. Hence, in 1983 the BLS switched to using Owner Equivalent Rent, which handily produced a lowe	2.4×	0	462	114	35
55	Jul 29, '22	Stocks are still using the 2009-21 playbook ie as growth slows the Fed eases. But we now live in a pre GFC world, where inflation not deflation is public enemy no.1. Hence, with EC	2.3×	0	515	79	34
56	Apr 25, '18	The most important chart of the day! As the correlation between stocks and bonds turns positive (lags 24 hours) i.e. both bond prices and stocks fall equity portfolios have NO hedg	2.2×	0	332	158	14
57	Dec 3, '21	How does #ARK implode? Most new investors are losing money (VWAP since Jan $120). As they sell, so does Cathie. But some of her names are illiquid. So she sells liquid stuff ie #TS	2.1×	0	447	74	38
58	Jul 2, '18	Our model for the S&P has caught all the major cycles since 2000. What it suggests now is that following the recent bounce towards in the S&P towards 2800, the highs are in	2.0×	0	344	126	17
59	Mar 24, '20	I started my career trading precious metals and I can assure you I'm not a gold bug. But now is the time to own some protection. Q is which one to own? Gold or Silver? The RSI on t	1.9×	0	393	73	23
60	Mar 24, '22	I'm amazed how some people think that US consumption is going to collapse, and we are heading for a #recession. How does that happen with the tightest labour market in 54 years? PS	1.9×	0	296	63	29
61	Jul 27, '21	At what point, does the concept of "transitory" inflation become laughable? How about 10% CPI?	1.8×	0	358	100	16
62	Dec 1, '21	As the Fed accelerates the end of QE those stocks that lived by the sword will die by the same hand. #arkk is a perfect example of a liquidity driven bubble. If the analogy holds,	1.8×	0	332	85	37
63	Nov 2, '22	Can we stop talking about "pivots" when the Fed isn't close to a "pause".	1.8×	0	497	38	3
64	Aug 25, '20	This is absolutely pivotal and being utterly ignored by stocks. Toll Brother just said the housing market is "booming". But how sustainable is that, with banks tightening credit at	1.8×	0	325	74	26
65	Mar 18, '20	Wondering why stocks and bonds are both going down together? Look no further than our good friend Risk Parity with their leveraged modern portfolio approach to investing. Is the wo	1.8×	0	338	90	30
66	Oct 9, '21	At Jackson Hole Powell said "He sees little evidence of a “wage spiral”. Well he's not looking very hard! Non-Supervisory (aka not your boss) Average Hourly Earnings are rising at	1.8×	0	346	84	29
67	Apr 27, '21	I'm sticking with my view, that the bull trap appears to have closed and that we are now in the "bust" phase of a classic bubble. #TSLA #ARK	1.7×	0	346	63	45
68	Feb 22, '22	With Ukraine on the backburner, can we refocus on central bank tightening and the impact on #tech ? If so, #teslastock might be a canary in the coal mine. It's early in the week an	1.7×	0	393	56	13
69	Mar 28, '22	#Bond 101 for #equities. Currently 2yr yields are rising on relative basis vs long end = "bear flattener". It is NOT, repeat NOT a recession sign. The real recession signal is a "b	1.7×	0	257	78	74
70	Oct 4, '21	So far so good! If we keep following this pattern, #arkk sells off back towards $100 Then we get a solid bounce, before the next major leg lower, which takes us towards $60	1.7×	0	314	59	41
71	Jun 27, '21	Brilliant Sven!	1.6×	0	405	64	13
72	Nov 21, '22	People tend to invent bullish narratives to fit price action and no more so with #TSLA. What they overlooked, after YEARS of range trading is what really drove it higher was Fed QE	1.6×	0	369	45	20
73	Jan 10, '22	Over the next few weeks, if the risk sell-off continues, you will hear the cheerleaders say the Fed needs to ease again. Ultimately, they will be right. But the question is at what	1.6×	0	347	65	16
74	Mar 27, '20	The VIX doesn't suggest a low in stocks. We are following the pattern of the GFC. Back then, vol peaked when Lehman failed NOT at markets lows. Vol then sat above 40 chewing throug	1.6×	0	297	81	29
75	Sep 19, '22	Cathie Wood #ARK has loaded up on 400k of #Nvidia shares. She is too early because it's a classic bubble As we have said before, history suggest you buy it when the P/E hits 20, wh	1.6×	0	329	32	57
76	Jul 6, '18	Can we shut up about the US curve inverting! The reason its 30bps is because 10yr Treasury yields are distorted by overseas flows seeking a home. If 10yrs were correctly priced i.e	1.5×	0	238	91	9
77	Jul 14, '20	Stocks are toying with 2 outcomes 1) tech weakness = broad risk-off or 2) a long awaited growth/value rotation. The decider could be the $. If it strengthens = 1, falls = 2. I'm wa	1.5×	0	287	60	41
78	Sep 20, '22	With German PPI #inflation hitting 45%, we have a 7 sigma (one in a billion years) divergence to CPI. This suggests two things 1) European bonds yields are moving higher and will t	1.5×	0	276	66	26
79	Mar 3, '21	#TSLA #Bitcoin and #ARK represent a reflexive trifecta of self reinforcing trades, which have boomed in a low growth, low rate environment. But as bond yields rise, the odds of sha	1.5×	0	310	49	19
80	May 31, '22	This is a key chart. EZ inflation is utterly out of control with the 3mth annualised rate running at approx. 16%. Yet the risk-free asset in Europe i.e. 10yr Bunds yields 1.12% !$#	1.5×	0	305	70	23
81	Jun 7, '21	If I look at this dispassionately, then having tried to rally #XBT #Bitcoin is now testing the lower end of a perfect wedge support. An accelerative break below would target approx	1.4×	0	285	40	25
82	Jun 9, '22	#Lagarde #ECB press conference couldn't have gone worse with #rates higher, #stocks down and the #EURUSD lower. But if you read this it's hardly a surprise that the market is showi	1.4×	0	259	61	25
83	Nov 25, '21	While the US is in the inflation sweet spot i.e. incomes are keeping pace with prices. In the Europe, the cost increases are so unprecedented that companies won't be able to fully	1.4×	0	260	73	18
84	May 12, '21	It's been a long time, since we've seen financial repression like this! Yet we still expect foreigners to be willing to fund our record fiscal spending. Something has to give and h	1.3×	0	258	69	17
85	Jun 2, '21	This morning, mortgage applications for purchases dropped again and are now, close to pre-Covid levels. Yet, investors have yet to wake up to the risks that poses to home sales and	1.3×	0	249	56	31
86	Feb 4, '22	In light of #NFP, I want to reiterate an observation I made 3 weeks ago. In 2000, with the #NASDAQ down 30%, the trigger for a #FederalReserve 50bps hike was a 0.3% jump in Av. Hou	1.3×	0	264	62	21
87	Apr 22, '21	In the last 40yrs, the widest spread between PPI and CPI has been 4.4%. Therefore, if the Kansas data is indicative and PPI is heading towards 10%, +5% CPI seems reasonable.	1.3×	0	247	62	25
88	Aug 4, '21	A quote from the Chair of ISM Services should chill any FOMC member to the bone "You know the federal reserve has said that this looks to be transitory, as it relates to inflation	1.3×	0	242	72	7
89	Apr 21, '25	If you doubt that the world is dumping dollars you only have to look at today's price action.	⚡ 1.2×	478k	272	20	21
90	Jun 14, '22	With markets as tense as they are now, I decided that it would be a great time to share my thoughts, which are normally saved for Macro Insiders with all my followers. I hope you a	1.2×	0	245	37	33
91	Sep 28, '20	I just took part in Real Vision's "Has Everything Changed ?" series. In my interview, I outlined why I believe, we are at a massive generational inflection point in markets, moneta	1.2×	0	254	21	49
92	Jan 27, '22	#Telsa is on a knife edge. Since the 2020 lows, we have probed this trendline a few times. But we've never had a a consecutive close/open or vice versa below the line. Tomorrow's o	1.2×	0	254	27	25
93	Mar 26, '20	A great bit of work from Jesse ‘Why did these companies sacrifice long-term financial health for short-term stock prices gains? .....“stock based compensation.” I'm a capitalist bu	1.1×	0	230	48	17
94	Feb 1, '21	I'm long #Silver from $12.62. But I'm suspicious this is more pros than #WSB. That said I think it has legs. In Dec I posted this chart and said it looked like 2011 when silver mov	1.1×	0	244	48	13
95	Feb 9, '22	A great day, as equities priced in a benign Fed. Utterly delusional! But it gives us an interesting setup in #nvidia. This looks like a classic bubble in the process of a Bull Trap	1.1×	0	225	29	35
96	Dec 16, '20	Since mid-2018, broad US equities have underperforming hard assets. After this bounce in Russell/Silver ratio now is a good time to enter. For Macro Insiders we are long silver out	1.1×	0	246	33	23
97	Nov 3, '22	There's a nursery rhyme in which green bottles fall off a wall, until one is left. In US stocks, that one bottle is #APPL. Vs its peers the current divergence is 2.8SD, which only	1.0×	0	231	25	14
98	Oct 17, '22	Judging by today's price action, which has every sector up on the #SPX500, we either have yet another squeeze or we have solved all our problems.	0.9×	0	256	11	6
99	Aug 5, '22	I'm no hedge fund titan. But I was at Phibro, Phibro Salomon, Salomon Phibro and Salomon (insider joke) in the late 80's, on the bullion desk ...and here's the photo to prove it!	0.9×	0	241	2	3
100	Oct 12, '22	First Cathie dismissed the Fed's concern about inflation and was dead wrong. Now, she's accusing them of stoking deflation. She really needs to get her macro right and stop just ta	0.9×	0	234	11	3

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