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Jack Farley

@JackFarley9690k followers

Co-founder of Monetary Matters Network:

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#DatePost↓ OutlierViewsLikesRepostsBookmarks
1Mar 15, '23Bank of America has $113 Billion of unrealized losses on its balance sheet This represents >60% of tangible book value167×3.5M6.7k1.7k660
2Mar 16, '23Wow, just recorded one of most revealing interviews of my life with the ultimate expert on interest rate hedging (issue at heart of bank turmoil). He said hedges at many U.S. banks43.2×912k1.8k280934
3Oct 2, '23Incredibly, ultra long-duration Treasury bonds have now lost more in % terms than stocks did during Great Financial Crisis. The drawdown in extended duration Treasury ETF (🔻58.3%)35.7×755k2k491270
4Oct 17, '23Bank of America's unrealized losses on held-to-maturity securities now exceed $130 Billion34.7×734k2.2k450225
5Apr 7, '23Wow, bond issuance from the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) absolutely exploded surged last month to just under a quarter trillion dollars. This is over six times the post-GFC averag33.5×708k1.2k315252
6Apr 16, '25Rick Rieder of Blackrock: - economy in recession now - we are adding gold -we like cash Jesus33.3×704k3.9k510610
7Jan 11, '23Just spoke with a very smart analyst who thinks the Fed will to 7% or even 8%. Background at Fed & several macro hedge funds... I'll be interviewing her on February 2nd (day af28.7×608k1.1k68136
8Sep 2, '23I have it on good authority that 84% of office CMBS were not paid off in August 16% pay-off rate, 84% were either modified/extended or entered maturity default Hosted a commercial 26.8×567k880201176
9Apr 22, '25We now have hard data showing major Japanese investors sold foreign bonds in size the week of tariff "Liberation Day." But that's not the whole picture. 1/12 🧵26.1×551k2.6k365940
10Mar 11, '23SVB in a nutshell: They lost more than a billion dollars every time interest rates went up 25 basis points + interest rates went up 450 bps last year + they had no interest rate he25.1×531k2k413337
11Dec 1, '23When I interviewed veteran commercial real estate (CRE) investor Anthony Dilweg, I expected him to say that the bearish headlines about CRE & office were overblown. Instead, he sai22.7×480k1.1k229615
12Sep 29, '23It's truly stunning that in 2020, with rates near 0, many U.S. banks could buy an option to insure against an interest rate shock. The cost of this option: 0.02% (!!) A similar opt21.6×456k1.1k168695
13Mar 11, '23Forget about the losses on securities, the true cause of Silicon Valley Bank's collapse is "cash burn": Money-losing companies who banked at SVB were taking money out to fund opera20.6×436k1.3k300324
14Apr 12, '23An investor who shorted the riskiest tranches for Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (blue line) just told me why he remains short even after huge collapse. He thinks banking cr20.4×431k1k189274
15Oct 26, '23Today was first time Sam Bankman-Fried spoke in his trial, here are some of the best moments: Prosecution: was it your view that Alameda Research was allowed to spend FTX customer 20.1×426k8048866
16Jan 25, '24BREAKING: the Federal Reserve will NOT renew the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which will end on March 11, 2024.20×422k1.4k279180
17Oct 3, '25Many are now saying the speculative fervor is approaching bubble levels of 2021. I disagree, and here, in an image from 2021, is why.18.9×400k3.1k138223
18Sep 6, '24No one wants to hear this but based on next twelve month's earnings, $NVDA is now cheaper than: - Microsoft - Walmart - Chipotle - Costco - Netflix - Apple ...is Nvidia undervalued18.7×395k1.5k121435
19Apr 13, '23Anyone know what's going on with the 1-month Treasury yield? Yielding close to 80 basis points below the effective Fed Funds rate18.4×389k54485110
20Oct 17, '24it's because they're pursuing investment alternatives that offer equity-like returns with bond-like risk18×380k5.3k234523
21Mar 27, '23On July 16, 2019, The Federal Reserve & FDIC received a letter warning them about issues with U.S. regional banks and their potential failure. The letter was sent by a group of17.3×366k803201174
22Jan 4, '25The wealth effect is a real thing16.7×353k1.1k5089
23Oct 20, '23Losses mount on some regional banks' derivative books Interest rate hedges (receive fixed // pay floating swaps) on variable rate loans have steep losses as rates have risen A few 16.6×351k706129228
24Jul 23, '24Out now - @Nouriel Roubini & @SteveMiran on: - U.S. Treasury is thwarting the Fed with ~$800B Billion of "stealth QE" via "Activist Treasury Issuance" (ATI) - this monetary stimulu15.6×329k689168487
25Aug 2, '24Out now - how Mike Green is seeing things: - Friday's sickly jobs report is just the beginning - recession in U.S. is a near certainty - "momentous" sell-off is possible if true pa15.4×326k913137960
26Sep 13, '24News... I'm leaving @ForwardGuidance. It's been a wild ride: 417 episodes 30 million downloads 525 basis points of interest rate hikes Forward Guidance's new host is @fejau_inc, wh15.1×318k1.1k5764
27May 6, '23Warren Buffett on bank runs: "you can have a bank run in a few seconds... if people think bank deposits are sticky anymore, they are living in a different era. [to withdraw money] 14.1×298k5105828
28Mar 24, '23Wow, market is pricing in >90% chance that the Fed is completely done raising rates. 4 **cuts** priced into just for the rest of the year 😲14×296k77213638
29Sep 28, '23Out now - how @LukeGromen is thinking about the current stress in the Treasury market: - Unless oil and/or the dollar goes down a lot, "the beatings will continue" in the bond mark13.7×289k904148401
30Apr 20, '23Short-term rate structure is going bananas... 1 month Treasury Bill trading 169 basis points below Fed Funds rate (!!) Spread hasn't been this negative since 2008 (!!)13.6×287k62310894
31Sep 9, '23In January 2023, when so many (including myself) were bearish, @BergMilton told me why he was extremely bullish and forecasted S&P 500 of 4650. 8 months later, here is how Milton i13.6×287k745117412
32Jan 8, '24How @josephwang is seeing things: - The recession doomers need to stop taking their "crazy pills" - Stocks will "crush" bonds as record fiscal deficits reignite inflation - Nominal12.8×270k716121380
33Sep 7, '23Jeez, U.S. banks have lost deposits for 5 quarters in a row12.6×267k1.2k25261
34Jul 9, '25Trump just imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil, even though U.S. has a trade surplus with Brazil This is 5x higher than the 10% declared on Liberation Day12.4×263k67711163
35Mar 19, '25Chinese banks offering consumer loans at 2.6% with approval times of 60 seconds and you're bearish?12.4×262k2.3k281299
36Oct 9, '23Very nice to see Bank of America's >$100B unrealized losses, a topic I received pushback on when I pointed them out in March, on front page of Bloomberg today! Recent bond yield12.1×256k87114094
37Sep 25, '23Zero-day options are now HALF of the S&P 500 options market12×255k91914364
38Oct 6, '23Out now - @LynAldenContact on: - The global monetary order is broken - Bonds are at "super oversold levels" - Early signs of disruption in equity market - Federal Reserve likely to12×253k980170479
39May 10, '23If you think the Chinese yuan is going to replace the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency, I have this questions for you... ...how come investors are dumping Yuan-denominat11.7×246k63412672
40Jan 28, '25Alibaba claims it beat DeepSeek Things moving really fast in Chinese AI... $BABA11.6×245k1.2k180174
41Nov 29, '23Interviewed a CRE investor in offices today and he says it's "much worse" than the headlines. He expects a cascade of defaults (landlords return keys to banks) that will be worse f10.8×227k926133100
42Mar 10, '23I am not worried about a bank solvency crisis. However, I am concerned about liquidity in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) $80 Billion of agency MBS was owned by a bank that just g10.7×226k5099974
43Feb 8, '23a trader who was up >150% last year shorting stocks & bonds told me he hasn't changed his mind at all and this is a suckers' rally. interview airs tomorrow - really is somet10.7×226k7122772
44May 8, '23Just aired- my interview w/ @michaelxpettis on: - the end of China's "economic miracle" - the collapse of Chinese real estate prices - if China fails to boost consumption, Japan-st10.6×225k50692140
45Aug 15, '23Atlanta Fed estimates Q3 GDP growth of 5.0% holy cow10.6×224k64312230
46Jan 30, '24Out now - @Johncomiskey77, engineer, forecasts U.S. Treasury borrowing with greater accuracy than some Wall Street bank research teams. Here's how this market plumbing autodidact i10.5×223k58588499
47Oct 30, '25Very strong quarter from Amazon, no doubt... but at the same time, $AMZN's free cash flow is collapsing AI CapEx is consuming so much capital...10.5×221k6639894
48Oct 3, '23Banks own substantially more duration (interest rate exposure) than meets the eye. Their willingness to buy U.S. Treasurys could be lower than anticipated. Quick thread 🧵 1/710.4×220k603108146
49Mar 21, '23Goldman Sachs was well prepared for last year's rise in rates. $GS held a small amount of securities with moderate duration and, as a result: Unrealized losses in Held-to-Maturity 10.1×214k6329297
50Sep 10, '24just interviewed a guy who has made fixed income trades that have returned 150x not 150%. 150x10.1×213k89225254
51Sep 29, '23It's VERY rare for the yield curve to undergo prolonged bear-steepening while inverted. The last time bond market saw meaningful "quadruple bear inverted steepening" was during ear10.1×212k48384124
52Dec 7, '23Felix Zulauf's big market calls for 2024 & beyond: - S&P 500 makes minor new highs in Q1 2024 (4900) but this will be a "trap" that will suck in too much capital at the wrong price9.7×205k804168575
53Mar 8, '24Wow, Nvidia's 10% intraday decline (peak-to-trough) represents a decline in value of a quarter of a trillion dollars in a few hours These numbers are getting very large $NVDA9.6×203k70910054
54May 3, '25WARREN BUFFETT STEPPING DOWN GREG ABEL CEO OF BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY EFFECTIVE YEAR END9.5×200k6327535
55Feb 17, '24Just spoke with a relative value credit manager who has serious concerns that a European property bank is on the brink of failure. I asked him to do an interview in early March and9.2×194k7339786
56Jan 24, '25Just insane levels of strength in affluent U.S. consumer. American Express consumer spending up NINE percent year-over-year for the fourth quarter Up ELEVEN % for Travel & Ente8.9×188k72190174
57Jan 4, '23Crispin Odey's fund went 800% short U.K. government bonds and returned a whopping 152% (!!) in 2022. Wow.8.8×185k4994839
58Jul 23, '24Google now making over a billion dollars in interest income *per quarter* "giant tech stocks can't handle higher rates" lol $GOOGL $GOOG8.6×181k1.3k137104
59Apr 21, '25In my view, today is the first day since Liberation Day where stocks sold off meaningfully without any negative tariff news. Interesting.8.5×179k1.9k10755
60Nov 21, '22Wow. Bain & Co received >$100 million a year to do research private companies for Tiger Global (hedge fund), helped Tiger Global do due diligence in now-bankrupt FTX. 🤯8.4×04.4k400307
61Apr 28, '23Banks have borrowed over $1 Trillion dollars from the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) This is the highest level of FHLB advances since 20088.3×176k50114350
62Jan 16, '24Out now - @andyverity's SHOCKING allegations about the manipulation of LIBOR during the Great Financial Crisis (& the cover-up since): - the scandal is way, way worse than original8.3×175k558159282
64Oct 24, '22Not enough people are talking about the collapse in natural gas prices. European next hour Dutch TTF nat gas is now *negative*. Henry Hub (U.S. nat gas) has been cut in half over t8.2×03.5k823204
65Sep 16, '23How @biancoresearch sees things playing out: - No imminent recession on the horizon... "no landing" for the U.S. economy is much more likely than a "hard landing" or even a "soft l8.1×171k49291146
66Feb 6, '24No one has navigated the stock market's obsession w/ Artificial Intelligence (AI) better than @Citrini7. Here's how he's seeing things now: - He's worried about macro threats to hi7.7×164k60079648
67Apr 5, '25The world doesn't tariff us at 54%. China tariffs the world at 3%, President Trump wants to tariff China at 54%. Europe tariffs the world at 2.7%, President Trump wants to tariff t7.7×163k1.1k12779
68Jan 18, '24The founder of the inverted yield curve as a recession signal told me that his indicator has a perfect track record (8 for 8, with no false signals) and is likely to go 9 for 9. Ou7.6×161k682106309
69Apr 29, '23Exxon Mobil earning 4% on its giant cash pile while paying 3% on its debt. I suspect many other companies sitting on huge pots of cash are facing a similar "problem." The opposite 7.6×161k5457525
71Jan 17, '24Discover $DFS takes $1.9 Billion dollar loss on credit card loans (provision up 116% year-over-year) 90+ day delinquencies up 30 basis points in a single quarter (!!) Stock down 9%6.9×146k5659557
72Nov 6, '25U.S LAYOFFS IN OCTOBER HIGHEST SINCE 20036.8×145k1.2k260155
73Nov 19, '25There's a bubble in customers giving Nvidia money in exchange for goods and services $NVDA6.7×141k1.4k10383
74Dec 9, '22Wow - Lululemon has $1.7 BILLION worth of unsold merchandise, a whopping ***85%*** increase from last year. That's a lot of yoga pants... $LULU6.6×03.3k350177
75Nov 18, '25The vibes are insanely bad given we're only down 4% in the S&P 5006.2×132k1.2k3329
76Dec 23, '24For over 2 years Michael Howell has been arguing that liquidity would propel assets far higher. Now, he says: "enjoy the party but dance near the door." My full talk w/ @crossborde6.1×130k65579336
77Dec 18, '24VERY RARE: the Fed just lowered the overnight reverse repo rate (RRP) by 30 basis points, not 25 bps (the norm) So RRP rate now at the floor of Fed Funds (no longer 5 bps above) Th5.5×117k1k160203
78Jul 17, '24I asked Michael Pettis if the sharp fall in Chinese real estate values has negatively impacted consumption. Here is his very thoughtful answer on the "wealth effect" in China: full5.2×111k51777238
79Jun 22, '25Worth a shot5.1×108k1k4223
80Jul 24, '25Excluding Joe Rogan is insane.5.0×106k1.4k3414
81Jul 12, '24The "credit card doom" narrative suffered a major blow this morning Serious credit card delinquencies are down for all three major banks that reported today4.9×103k4655376
82Apr 2, '2534% tariff on China bad for $AAPL 32% tariff on Taiwan bad for $NVDA4.9×103k8778333
83Apr 29, '25Just hit 2 million podcast listens/views for Monetary Matters since we launched in September Thank you to everyone for listening!!4.8×101k868138
84Nov 23, '22Holy shit, Sam Bankman-Fried just confirmed that he **WILL** be speaking at the New York Times conference on 11/30 (!!). Was Andy Fastow (CFO of Enron) not available? NYT's site de4.4×01.9k25024
85Apr 8, '22Worst drawdown for Treasurys since the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index began in 1994. Not even close4.1×01.8k390133
86Mar 1, '224 things I learned today from @Frances_Coppola and @josephwang: 1) SWIFT isn't a payment rail, it's a messaging system. 2) The sanctions on Russian commercial banks don't go into e3.9×01.3k400305
87Feb 22, '24Serious credit stress has appeared at a German bank... Additional Tier 1 Bonds of German commercial real estate (CRE) lender Deutsche Pfandbriefbank now trade at 20 cents on the do3.9×82k50913173
89Jan 31, '25The stock market underestimates the scale and scope of Trump's tariffs, argues @josephwang Here are Joseph Wang's in-depth thoughts on tariffs: Apple 🔊 Spotify 🔊 YouTube 📽️3.5×73k492105378
90Oct 31, '25Legend3.3×71k5611661
91Mar 28, '24I'm back - for real. I apologize for the vile messages this account posted while I was hacked. Thank you to everyone who helped flag the scammer. Looking forward to moving on from 3.3×70k63075
92Nov 17, '22Fed pres James Bullard just dropped a bomb 💣 He defines the "sufficiently restrictive zone" to be at minimum 5% and perhaps *higher* than 7%3.3×01.3k280150
94May 12, '21Inflation numbers blowing past expectations, leaving every single economist estimate in the dust 4.2% year-over-year change in the CPI vs. 3.6% median estimate. Highest estimate wa3.0×01.3k32949
95Jul 1, '22JUST IN: Atlanta Fed is now estimating that Q2 real GDP growth will be NEGATIVE 2.1% This is not good. I previously was in the "no recession till 2023 camp" but the data this past 3.0×01.3k25574
96Dec 31, '23I'm very grateful to everyone who listened to @ForwardGuidance this year. Throughout 2023, the show received 12.9 million downloads & was viewed/listened-to for 4 million combi2.9×60k646148
97Apr 5, '25Yes. A recession2.4×51k619115
98Mar 28, '24Me and today’s paper. Proof that I have control of this account2.4×50k49388
99May 7, '24Wow, greatest macro investor of all time calls on the Federal Reserve to get rid of my podcast @ForwardGuidance Not gonna happen!1.6×34k684108
100May 6, '22Powell, two days ago: "75 basis point increase is not something the committee is actively considering" The markets, today: assigning a 78% likelihood of a triple hike in June from 1.5×06428943
101Oct 8OUT NOW - since June, a quiet paradox has gripped the semiconductor industry. Earnings are booming >100%, demand signals are white-hot, and yet valuations have collapsed. @Srasgon'1.2×26k991184

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