Marko Papic

@Geo_papic69k followers

BCA Research. Geomacro & Chief Investment Strategist. Author of Geopolitical Alpha. Podcast host of "Geopolitical Cousins." Views on Twitter are my own.

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#	Date	Post	↓ Outlier	Views	Likes	Reposts	Bookmarks
1	Jan 9, '25	Some thoughts on the LA fires, given the curious situation that I find myself in... being in the midst of a macro calamity. To be clear, I don't believe in "reports from the ground	124×	1.2M	1.7k	200	825
2	Jun 25, '23	One interesting takeaway from the attempted mutiny/coup is that Prigozhin kicked it off with a 30 minute speech on Telegram that has largely been translated to Western audience thr	92.7×	897k	1.1k	230	350
3	Jul 21, '24	The media is going to spend the next several weeks obsessing over President Biden's replacement. This will drown out what I think was a pretty important signal from President Trump	38.7×	375k	799	102	384
4	Oct 8, '23	Even a significant conventional war - such as the 2006 Lebanon War - did not impact oil prices. Macro context was far more powerful.	34.8×	337k	373	51	49
5	Dec 3, '24	The "martial law" announcement in South Korea has nothing to do with North Korea. It is essentially what Latin American observers would be very familiar with. It is an auto-coup. I	21.4×	207k	1.1k	150	116
6	Apr 26, '25	One of the best charts from a good friend of mine who for compliance reasons can't receive a shout out on this platform. It basically shows that the EXODUS has not even started fol	20.4×	198k	881	171	433
7	Nov 15, '23	This is potentially a huge development. It could take Taiwan off the map as a geopolitical risk for the remainder of the decade (even though I think it already is off the map). Tha	20.1×	194k	280	47	43
8	Feb 20, '25	I am in Europe right now. Many friends and clients over here are buying into the narrative that Europe is being "sidelined" by the US in its negotiations with Russia. I see it diff	16.9×	164k	661	68	249
9	Oct 8, '23	A reminder to everyone that Israel-Palestinian conflicts this century have not been market relevant. I am open minded that this can change, but thus far "what happens in the Levant	15.9×	154k	287	54	41
10	Aug 26, '25	Folks out there acting like the Fed was ever independent. Silly finance bros. But let's say that it's about to lose it. Why would you short duration when the very act of losing ind	15.2×	147k	348	43	44
11	Oct 8, '23	The Hamas attack has no strategic logic other than to provoke Israel into a response, thus making normalization of relations with Israel politically difficult for many in the regio	14.8×	143k	395	46	27
12	Jun 22, '25	There is a hierarchy to how Iran retaliates: 1. US bases in Iraq. I'd say no US response, ala Jan 2020. 2. US bases in Qatar and Bahrain. Moderate US response. Things settle down e	14.2×	138k	592	66	145
13	Jan 8, '24	China is still a middle income economy that requires FDI to progress along the technological curve. As such, the "investors' riot" of 2023 has to be reversed, or else China may fin	13.1×	127k	174	37	42
14	Jan 31, '23	I have no insights into the Adani Group saga as I have zero experience reseaching single name equities. I would not even know where to begin. However, I think that there is a broad	12.8×	124k	280	54	114
15	Jul 16, '25	Pretty dramatic and clear signal for the White House.	11.6×	112k	237	61	55
16	Nov 29, '23	Capex intentions collapsing, worse than the "mid-cycle" slowdown of 2015-2016. The consensus sell side forecasts of "late-2024 recession" could be wrong. An "I" and "G" led shallow	11.4×	111k	320	80	89
17	Jan 9, '25	First, we now have the first reports of the size of the "Palisades fire." See below.	11.1×	108k	188	13	25
18	Jan 9, '25	It is effectively as large as West LA - population around 200,000 - itself. However, the prevailing winds have taken the fire to the southwest, as they normally do. As such, the fi	10.7×	104k	210	11	12
19	Jan 9, '25	This is all likely to persist. However, this fire is not being fed by the normal Santa Ana winds, which tend to push brush fires towards Malibu. I personally observed the Palisades	10.4×	101k	186	12	10
20	Jan 9, '25	The problem is that these winds are - as everyone now knows - the worst such climactic event since 2011. The direction of the wind has changed and may yet change into Thursday, whi	10×	97k	248	19	18
21	Jan 9, '25	Santa Monica evacuation zones expanded late into Wednesday due to the potential for winds to actually change direction on Thursday, when it will also pick up speed again. If that h	10.0×	97k	165	11	8
22	Dec 26, '22	Year 2022 was one when the constraint-framework took three hits in the chin: Putin going all out in Ukraine, Xi tripling down on zero-COVID, and Jay going Volcker. In 2023, the mat	9.4×	91k	197	35	20
23	Oct 17, '25	Missed among the cacophony of the most recent US-China trade spat is Taipei's rejection of Washington's proposal that 50% of semiconductors be produced in the U.S. This is a big de	9.2×	89k	252	40	106
24	Nov 5, '25	What happens to commodities if China so much as shows a sign of life? Chinese has not mattered for commodities since the pandemic. The growth catalyst shifted from TSF to US fiscal	9.0×	87k	182	27	52
25	Jan 9, '25	This is where this fire is not just "another LA forest fire." There is nothing really "forested" about Altadena. Houses and strip malls are burning down. If you spend 15 minutes wa	8.6×	83k	282	34	8
26	Jan 5, '24	Joe Biden is right now, at this point in his presidency, the least popular president since WWII. But yeah... "the Fed might not cut." 🤣	8.6×	83k	309	52	30
27	Dec 27, '23	I hope that everyone is having a great ending to the year 2023! As you are taking it easy and mulling over the past 12 months, I thought it was a good time for a 🧵about geopolitic	8.4×	82k	189	33	156
28	Jan 9, '25	The Eaton fire started in a rural, mountainous, area but has clearly spread to suburban/urban Altadena. I have never been to Altadena, but what I am seeing on TV are basically urba	8.4×	81k	167	12	7
29	Aug 23, '22	It's time for a thread on the European natural gas freakout. No doubt, Europe should be concerned given that the TTF contract is up over 200% YTD. But with the EURUSD at parity (a	8.2×	0	965	209	324
30	Jan 9, '25	The danger here is that much of the firefighting resources have been surged into the Palisades fire and are now effectively stuck in the hilly/canyon terrain of the Pacific Palisad	7.9×	76k	214	23	4
31	Dec 16, '22	Lots of conversations on what constitutes a Fed pivot. My (low-conviction) view here is that the Fed will have pivoted not when it cuts or pauses or does something with QT/QE... bu	7.8×	76k	189	22	23
32	Jan 9, '25	But... if the winds change direction and that fire crosses those canyons... it will dwarf Katrina. Floods recede. Fires destroy. So, the federal government needs to make this a con	7.5×	72k	641	52	35
33	Jan 9, '25	I think that the final damage here is going to be at least half of the cost of Katrina ($100bn). This is, easily, going to be the worst natural disaster that has ever befallen Los	7.4×	72k	419	27	26
34	Apr 7, '25	Forget equities. The most important ## right now is the 10-year yield. We are almost back at 4.2%. Even though everyone and their uncle is now on the same page regarding a recessio	7.4×	72k	203	20	37
35	Nov 19, '24	Heard on Wall Street today, "I don't remember the last time that picking the Treasury Secretary seemed like such a market-relevant decision." My answer: Yeah... in the US. Happens	7.3×	71k	416	40	21
36	Jan 9, '25	The point here is that the only way to deal with this is going to be a massive federal government response. The city cannot fight it itself. That is beginning to happen, so that is	7.2×	70k	264	19	8
37	Nov 12, '24	Re-posting this poll from the Cato Institute. It's fascinating. Number 1 priority for voters is INFLATION. Number 16 is trade & globalization. Curbing trade (16th priority) leads t	7.2×	70k	217	48	70
38	Jan 9, '25	The entire West Coast of the US, all of the states (including yes 🇨🇦), should be surging aerial resources to LA. I don't see how the city - given LA's surprisingly complicated ge	7.2×	70k	371	39	15
39	Jan 8, '23	Somebody upstairs really hates President Putin.	7.2×	70k	205	10	4
40	Sep 26, '25	Simple. And clear.	7.0×	68k	471	103	121
41	Feb 28, '24	This chart does not really need any comment.	6.9×	67k	229	46	53
42	Jan 6, '25	Everybody out there understands that if tariffs are used for negotiations, President Trump cannot admit that tariffs are used for negotiations. Right? RIGHT? People out there actin	6.4×	62k	246	19	16
43	Feb 8, '23	Astonishing chart. We are witnessing a true birth of a nation. (Apologies to anyone who has posted this chart before... and yes, I understand the data may be biased, but the result	6.4×	62k	183	27	12
44	Oct 10, '24	Why is the 10-year above 4%? This summer, the economy was a party that was winding down. Then, Jay Powell showed up with some booze and China brought the snacks. Party is picking u	6.2×	60k	349	28	61
45	Jan 4, '25	Looking for some early January weekend reading? Highly recommend this @SteveMiran piece from two months ago on restructuring global trade architecture.	6.1×	59k	174	25	231
46	Jan 31, '25	My highly sophisticated model on where we are in the Canada-US trade dispute. This is proprietary, but I have decided to share it with my X followers. You are welcome.	6.1×	59k	355	59	149
47	Apr 1, '25	Vietnam and Israel are front-running LIBERATION DAY by slashing tariffs on US products. It will be important to watch if the administration aknowledges any such acts in its April 2	6.1×	59k	270	41	23
48	Sep 2, '25	This is really interesting. In my view, the White House is laser focused on unleashing the massive amount of wealth stored in US housing equity. I fully expect them to find a way t	5.7×	55k	182	26	72
49	Dec 8, '23	Europe won. Russia lost. Sorry (majority of) Twitter. By 2028, if not sooner, there will be so much LNG in the world that prices may collapse. Great piece by my friend Craig Mellow	5.3×	52k	234	37	74
50	Jun 25, '23	In other words, someone like Prigozhin can "open a safe space" for others to criticize the war in a similar manner. No longer are Kremlin critics merely liberals and Western stooge	5.3×	52k	234	13	12
51	Dec 3, '24	A little reminder to all my followers in the upcoming Trump administration... might want to snapshot this chart.	5.3×	51k	240	34	60
52	Jul 21, '24	That is a mistake as it means that most investors are forecasting a far more aggressive Trump administration - on trade and foreign policy - than may actually be the case.	5.2×	50k	287	12	28
53	May 11, '25	In a policy induced recession, you must trade policy, not data. A whole lotta nerds are about to get pwned.	5.0×	48k	329	39	50
54	Jun 25, '23	What's kind of ironic is that both Kremlin apologists and Ukrainian/Liberal/Western critics kind of agree that Russia has STRATEGIC reasons to invade Ukraine. I really disagree. I	5.0×	48k	173	10	1
55	Aug 10, '25	Great chart from my friend and colleague @DougPeta! Is the labor market impact from AI already here?	4.9×	47k	181	31	70
56	Oct 10, '24	I think that too many investors want China to nail its fiscal package right away. The reality is that a slew of assets -- from BRL to oil to Chinese stocks -- are actually PRICED F	4.6×	45k	294	28	50
57	Dec 12, '22	This is my 🧵on the US October 7 semiconductor ban against China. I had a lot of questions about this from FinTwit followers. Since I write research for a living, I cannot just pos	4.1×	0	403	113	233
58	Aug 17, '25	The Alaska Summit was a success. But most establishment commentators are panning it because they don't like the fact that Putin proved to be so petty. Instead of World Domination,	4.0×	39k	197	20	22
59	Jun 25, '23	Moments like this can change the narrative. Prigozhin is arguing that the war in Ukraine has nothing to do with Russia's national security, geopolitical ambitions, protecting Russi	4.0×	39k	187	12	10
60	Feb 20, '25	The whole Ukraine rare earth thing is something straight out of "Civilization IV" type thinking. Deposits of rare earths are not that... rare. The issue is that you're still sendin	4.0×	39k	192	14	19
61	Apr 8, '25	A gentle reminder for all the neo-McKinleyists out there... You could have financed the federal government with a bake sale in 1899!	3.9×	38k	277	45	29
62	Apr 14, '22	Everyone in the macro space is fully on board with the Hydrogen Economy: high growth + high inflation = long commodities / short bonds. I mean... that's my view too! But then you l	3.6×	0	503	92	111
63	Mar 24, '22	In 2014, I published a report @bcaresearch titled Apex of Globalisation. I actually wanted to title it "The End of..." but it was too bold. The reasons for the "end" have little to	3.6×	0	472	67	171
64	Mar 27, '25	Here is a scary chart I hope someone shows the denizens of the White House. Every recent recession scare/hysteria was complimented with a bond rally. Not this time around. Is the "	3.4×	33k	181	25	65
65	Jan 8, '24	Europe continues not to freeze itself to death, or de-industrialize. One of the less understood reasons is that 🇨🇳and 🇯🇵have imported less LNG over the past 24ms, leaving more	3.3×	32k	242	42	36
66	Dec 3, '24	Great point. Honestly... Every leader in a democracy is thinking this right now... We are living in an instant-gratification era where dealing with "messy" democracy is tiring. It'	3.2×	31k	248	34	32
67	Nov 23, '24	Alongside Susan Wiles, Scott Bessent is a 🔥 cabinet pick. He may be, alone, worth 25-50bps lower on the 10-year! Who else can say that they did that... just by showing up for work	3.2×	31k	206	9	29
68	Apr 11, '25	It is a shame that when historians write the story of 2025-2030, they will conclude that Trump's election popped America, Inc. When, in fact, it was always going to pop because the	3.2×	31k	379	40	44
69	Jun 23, '23	Whatever happens this weekend in Moscow, the fact is that 🇷🇺 support for the war in 🇺🇦is not as high as people think. Westerners love to mythologize Russian pain tolerance. His	3.2×	31k	191	22	5
70	Jan 24, '23	Taking a break from macro and geopolitics to share one of my favorite charts: a diagram of Koby Bryant's every shot in his career. Two immediate thoughts: 1) nobody shoots like Kob	3.1×	30k	166	20	25
71	Apr 11, '25	Maybe the most important tweet of... the century.	2.9×	28k	194	28	102
72	Mar 2, '25	Lots of criticism that Oval Office meeting is a "win for Russia." But that's the best part about it! Moscow now has so many "wins" to celebrate that they can sell a complete and ut	2.9×	28k	242	18	19
73	Jul 1, '24	I'm really excited to announce that I AM COMING HOME! I have re-joined @bcaresearch and will lead a new global macro investment strategy, dubbed GeoMacro. In addition, I will creat	2.9×	28k	232	9	14
74	Apr 3, '25	The biggest takeaway from the past 6 hours (really past 3 months) is that everything that was supposed to happen due to the trade war - USD up and global weakness - has not occurre	2.8×	27k	191	18	26
75	Apr 11, '25	This is actually a VERY important point. Most US commentators (particularly those in MAGA camp) are over-indexing on the X-axis below. But if the X-axis mattered, US would have won	2.8×	27k	203	22	37
76	Jan 22, '25	Here is what I have learned from @Davos : 1. AI is a big deal 2. Europe is not easy to invest in 3. Geopolitics is going to upset... stuff Being here is sort of like being trapped	2.8×	27k	268	16	16
77	Aug 1, '25	Canada and Mexico won the trade war. Hear me out... A very short 🧵. By the time USMCA is up for renegotiations, the White House will have suffered such a huge backlash against de-	2.7×	26k	175	22	92
78	Oct 21, '24	What is going on today? It's as if everyone woke up and suddenly realized that Trump is bad for bonds. 🤣 I've been showing this chart since last year. This is the election trade.	2.7×	26k	198	32	86
79	Aug 24, '22	Here is another piece of red meat for all my... fans. Russian gas supply has fallen by 70% and people believe that it will go to zero, but it is worth noting that the total gas flo	2.6×	0	391	73	55
80	Feb 3, '25	The fog of (trade) war has slowly wafted over from the beach... Here are my thoughts on both the imminent tariffs and the much scarier ones yet to come. Also, a "zag" to talk about	2.5×	25k	217	34	106
81	Mar 4, '25	Reminder that, after almost seven years of trade wars, globalization remains at its Apex. For the N-th time, it is difficult to wage a successful trade war in a multipolar geopolit	2.5×	25k	208	31	33
82	Feb 20, '25	The worst thing that happened to Europe was the election of President Biden. It lulled the continent into a state of false security. Trump is not an aberation. He is the first hone	2.5×	24k	363	33	22
83	Dec 1, '24	A lot of people have made this same point, so I am just repeating it here. But... the US is soon going to spend a lot more on servicing its proverbial sovereign credit card than on	2.5×	24k	165	28	30
84	Jun 16, '25	Markets appear to be FADING Iran-Israel conflict today. Many commentators equate that with the "end of the war." I don't necessarily agree with that. Kinetic action by both sides c	2.2×	22k	192	26	34
85	May 3, '25	Pretty crazy chart... There are many reasons that this is happening, but I know one reason that can't explain it: USDEUR exchange rate! 🤣	2.2×	21k	185	27	36
86	Aug 18, '25	It is clear that most commentators just cannot handle objective geopolitical analysis because of severe politicization. Juts watching folks get a brain aneurysm over this Alaska Su	2.1×	20k	213	18	8
87	Jun 10, '22	A very important indication that Realpolitik and national interests — NOT ESG — dominate foreign policy decisions of major powers. The US-Saudi detente, given level of oil prices,	2.0×	0	319	47	27
88	Jul 10, '25	The 50% tariff threat against Brazil does not really make much strategic sense. Brazil is one of the few countries that the US actually has a trade surplus with. In addition, there	1.9×	19k	185	18	10
89	Nov 23, '22	Ironically, everyone got 🇺🇦war wrong. It took barely any🛢️off the market. In fact, it gave us nearly the same supply AT LOWER PRICES. That's the non-linearity of geopolitics, wh	1.7×	0	293	24	35
90	Feb 3, '25	All right, I have re-run the numbers on my sophisticated constraint-based trade war model. Here are the results (color coordinated!).	1.6×	16k	169	27	40
91	Mar 4, '25	Folks are overstating odds of a Mar-a-Lago FX agreement. HOWEVER, Bessent is doing something better. He has guided US fiscal policy away from the ORGY. And, Germany has been pushed	1.6×	15k	175	16	27
92	Jul 17, '22	Fade?	1.6×	0	290	23	15
93	Apr 10, '25	Who is the AUDIENCE for "tariffs raise revenue to pay for tax cuts?" Nerds at the CBO? Investors? Voters? Congresspeople? No. It is the bond market. And the bond market is telling	1.5×	15k	202	25	17
94	Apr 2, '25	Who had "USD does not rally after Trump imposes 700% tariffs on rest of the world" on their bingo card 12 months ago? Not. Me.	1.5×	14k	184	11	9
95	Apr 28, '22	Great chart from @GoldmanSachs. Three out of five income quintiles have still seen a positive real disposable income growth, despite inflation. The bottom quintile is definitely hu	1.3×	0	182	42	39
96	Aug 23, '22	EU electricity/energy crisis is going to hurt. A lot. But it's a temporary situation that the continent will overcome. Meanwhile, its tourism and industrial exports just got a mass	1.3×	0	259	13	14
97	Aug 23, '22	Clocktower Group did the math and we believe that there is almost zero probability that Europe does not achieve gas storage levels of 80% by October 1. They may even get to 90% by	1.2×	0	214	22	15
98	Aug 23, '22	Wait... what? Europeans are not as dumb as FinTwit would like to make them out to be and the Kremlin is not as strategic? You bet ya. Russians waited too long to fully cut off natu	1.1×	0	259	13	2
99	May 2, '22	The neon shortage hysteria is silly. Ukraine went from 70% to 50% of neon gas production in a few years and will go to zero quickly. Why? Because neon is not a natural resource bou	1.1×	0	212	22	13
100	Jul 17, '22	Thank you to my friends @MacroAlf and @AndreasSteno! I’m sure 90% of FinTwit will hate the views, but hey… gotta give the people what they want! Also, I’m expecting that Andreas/Al	1.0×	0	166	7	28

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