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(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten230k followers

Son of a man who was far from perfect, but I loved him anyway. Host of CNN's Margins of Error, a podcast about statistical stories.

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1Nov 4, '24Well it's official: the final polls of 2024 project out an electoral map that is the closest since at least 1972 with the leader (Harris) getting 270 electoral votes. The polls wer59.2×9.3M9.1k5472k
2Jul 24, '24JD Vance is making history as the least liked VP nominee (non-incumbent) since 1980 following his/her party's convention. He's the first to have a net negative favorable rating. No46×7.2M20k3.8k1.5k
3Nov 18, '24Trump's mandate? It's very shallow. Trump's now under 50% in the popular vote. His margin ranks 44 of 51 since 1824. Weak coattails: 4 Dems won for Senate in states Trump won. (It 31.6×5M12k2.4k1.9k
4Oct 29, '24Don't count on polls underestimating Trump: 1. No party has ever been underestimated 3 pres. cycles in a row. 2. In 2020, right leaning polls correctly said averages were way off. 24.1×3.8M5.8k6221.1k
5Mar 4, '25Trump's overall net approval & on the economy are "historically awful... weak, weak, weak" going into a 1st address to Congress. He has the 2nd worst net approval rating (+1 pt23.2×3.7M10k2.1k1k
6Oct 30, '24If Trump wins, the signs were there all along. No incumbent party has won another term with so few voters saying the country is on the right track (28%) or when the president's net21.4×3.4M7.6k1.2k1.4k
7Jul 24, '24Brat Summer or not, I looked into whether Harris has unique appeal to young voters. She doesn't. She's doing much worse against Trump than Biden did in 2020. Moreover, young Democr20.5×3.2M4.6k1.1k916
8Aug 13, '243 caution points for Democrats... 1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020. 2. Trump's more popular now 19.8×3.1M6.1k1.4k947
9Sep 18, '24Kamala Harris' popularity (net favorability) has climbed 15 pts to positive territory in 2 months of campaigning... She's more popular than Biden or Trump. Harris is also slightly 19.6×3.1M18k2.1k739
10Sep 30, '24Trump has more working class support than any GOP presidential candidate in a generation. He's on track for the best performance among union voters in 40 years. He's up 31 points a19.3×3M7.3k1.5k1.2k
11Sep 16, '24Pretty clear that Harris is ahead nationally right now... and I don't think it matters all that much... Her advantage in the battlegrounds is basically nil. Average it all, Harris'18.8×3M6k696685
12Mar 3, '25A little bit of a reality check for some: -Trump's net approval on Russia/Ukraine (+2) is far more positive than Biden's was by the end (-22). -The share (31% to 50%) who want a co18.4×2.9M6.4k1.3k1.2k
13Oct 23, '24I tend to think the so-called Democratic panic is quite overblown at this point. Harris still has a very clear path to 270 votes... The polls show Harris basically even (if not sli18.2×2.9M8.5k1k937
14Oct 21, '24A rather important development: Harris appears to be slightly outperforming Biden 2020 among Trump's base of non-college White voters. This is key because they make up a ton of the17.3×2.7M7.6k1.3k623
15Oct 7, '24Kamala Harris seems to be on track to put up the best numbers ever for a Democratic presidential nominee among white voters with a college degree & among all voters with a coll16.6×2.6M14k2k1k
16Jul 26, '24If JD Vance's popularity in his home region (-16 pts) is any sign, it won't get better for Vance nationally (where he's historically unpopular). Also, Vance's favorable rating is j16.1×2.5M4.8k759433
17Apr 4, '25"Uh oh... Trump's making history": he's the 1st president since the S&P 500 was created in 1957 to inherit a bull market & turn in a loss of at least 5% at this point in hi15.8×2.5M12k2.8k1.3k
18Mar 8, '25Trump effect in Canada: They use to love us, but those who want to treat the U.S. as a friend has dropped 50 pts from 2023. Trudeau's net approval is up 28 pts since the tariff war15.7×2.5M6.8k1.1k533
19Oct 25, '24There's a real shot Trump may get his great white whale: winning the popular vote. Polls show the race nationally is basically even as Trump runs far ahead of where he polled in 2015.1×2.4M5.8k8411k
20Feb 13, '25If Trump's not careful, inflation will crush his presidency. Inflation will eat his presidency alive just like it ate Biden's. Inflation is the number 1 thing Americans say Trump s15×2.4M8.6k1.1k731
21Jul 2, '25Re: Mamdani & Israel, Democrats are longer pro-Israeli when it comes to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. Dems sympathized more with Israelis by 13 pt in 2017. Now, it's Palest14.4×2.3M8.7k1.4k1.6k
22Sep 24, '25Trump didn't break Kimmel; he energized him. Viewership of Kimmel's monologue has already broken records. Already 7 million people have viewed it on YouTube. That's by far the most11.6×1.8M31k5.2k1.1k
23Jul 25, '24Kamala Harris is doing SIGNIFICANTLY better than Joe Biden is among Black and Hispanic voters. Why is that important? It means that while Biden had really one path to win the elect11.5×1.8M9.8k1.4k633
24Jul 1, '25GOP voters love for Trump is record breaking. His strong approval (63%) is up like a rocket from term 1 (53%). It's higher than any GOP prez on record at this pt. 95%+ of those Tru11.4×1.8M5.9k1.4k772
25Mar 28, '25Just 6% of Greenlanders want to join the United States. There are more people who think we faked the moon landing (~10%). 85% of Greenlanders are opposed. Meanwhile, less than 30% 10.8×1.7M22k3.6k721
26Oct 31, '24Part II: If Harris wins, the signs were clear as day. 1. She has a higher net favorable rating than Trump, & the more popular candidate almost always wins. 2/3. Post-Roe: When 10.3×1.6M6.2k700800
27Aug 15, '25What a big shift toward Ukraine among the GOP from 6 months ago. % who think we give Ukraine too much support has dropped dramatically from 47% to 30%. % who say we should give mor9.7×1.5M9.8k2.2k731
28Feb 24, '25"Ruh roh", to quote Scooby Doo, on how Americans view the economy. -Just 20% view it as excellent or good. Worse than at any pt during Trump's 1st term. -"Yikes": 59% say the econo9.6×1.5M6.6k1.3k599
29Feb 20, '25The last day has been the worst polling day for Trump during his entire 2nd term. -4 polls show his net approval rating underwater like The Little Mermaid. -The 3 polls with a tren9.5×1.5M6.3k1.2k576
30Jul 8, '24Biden is saying that 2020 polls underestimated him, so why believe them now? When it comes to the general election, that's not true. Polls overestimated him. Biden's in his worst p9.1×1.4M4.4k1k445
31Mar 19, '25"To cross that rubicon [of defying court rulings] is a big 'no, no'" for Americans. This court issue is a big loser for Trump. The belief that Trump must follow court orders is mor9.0×1.4M11k3.1k856
32Nov 3, '25Dems are the precipice of delivering a yuge electoral blow to Trump. They lead in NJ-GOV (only close one), VA-GOV, & NYC Mayor. Trump's way underwater in all 3 places (like he 8.7×1.4M5.6k844421
33Jul 29, '24This is the biggest change between Biden & Harris as the Democratic nominee. We've seen a 26 pt jump in enthusiasm among Democrats in voting for the presumptive Democratic nomi8.7×1.4M4.4k708267
34Jun 10, '25No group has become more hawkish on immigration & shifted to the GOP than immigrants. Immigrant voters -Trust more on immigration in 2020: Dem +32 pt to Now: GOP +8 pt -Net fav8.5×1.3M7k1.8k1.6k
35Oct 14, '24No matter how you splice the data, Trump seems to be the strongest Republican with Black voters since 1960. Young Black men in particular have trended right during Trump's runs (cu8.2×1.3M4.9k1.1k654
36Nov 8, '24Trump's mandate: 1. More states (49 + DC) swung in his direction vs. last election than anyone since 1992. 2. Best GOP showing w/ age 18-29 in 20 yrs, Black voters in 48 yrs, Hispa8.2×1.3M5.3k1.4k1.7k
37Jul 11, '25The Trump admin's handling of the Epstein files has been a massive unforced error. Trump may wish it goes away, but Google searches for Epstein are up 1,200% this week. It's the to7.8×1.2M5.2k1.2k300
38Sep 26, '24One reason Harris has a small national lead over Trump? She's doing better than Biden did 4 years ago with voters age 65+ in the average poll... Harris could be the first Dem to wi7.7×1.2M7.4k1k353
39Mar 27, '25Don't be fooled: there's a lot of interest in the Signal scandal. Googling for "The Atlantic" & "Signal" are way up to record highs. Going in, more were disappointed with Trump7.5×1.2M6k1.3k324
40Jul 1, '24Lot of polling out of immunity, but perhaps the most interesting finding... Republicans think Trump should be immune for his official acts. But with a generic president (i.e. no na7.4×1.2M6k1.5k519
41Nov 11, '18"Voter fraud" is too quickly becoming a synonym for "result I don't like".7.1×031k5.7k40
42Aug 2, '24It's clear from the numbers that the attack on Vance/Trump as "weird" has penetrated the zeitgeist. Searches for weird are way up on Google, and the topics that are driving that ar6.7×1.1M3.9k751220
43Sep 19, '24The past 24 hours have featured some of the best polling for Harris of the campaign... Harris has as clear of a path to 270 than she basically ever has...6.3×994k8.4k1.1k584
44Sep 20, '24I've rarely seen folks as interested in a story as they are in Mark Robinson's scandal. Google searches for him are through the roof nationally & in North Carolina. Although Ro6.2×982k4.9k646298
45Apr 15, '25Trump is "completely underwater" & has broken his own record with the lowest net approval at this point among independents (-22 pts). His economic net approval with indies at t5.8×912k8.2k1.7k546
46Oct 6, '25Trump moving the national guard into cities is a political loser. ~60% of Americans oppose it. Why? Voters don't buy Trump's argument over crime. Instead, they say Trump's taken hi5.5×870k7k1.3k305
47May 16, '25Time for a reality check... I think some folks thought Trump's approval rating would keep falling, but it's rising. Ipsos has his net approval going from -8 pts to -1 pt with voter5.2×822k5.3k1k635
48Oct 14, '25The shutdown debate shows how the Affordable Care Act has won. 1. The ACA is one of the great comeback stories in modern politics. It has a +30 pt net favorable & gained 40 poi4.9×768k9.5k2.2k705
49Aug 15, '24A big reason Harris has surged? She's winning over previously disaffected voters. We have been talking about double-haters... Those who dislike Biden/Trump. Harris is winning them 4.5×709k4.2k799258
50Jul 23, '25A new low for Trump, as the USS Donald Trump takes on a lot of water. His net approval has dropped 17 pt since January to -11 pt now. Underwater on all major issues from immigratio4.4×692k5.1k1.2k314
51Oct 7, '20Biden's closer in Alaska than Trump is in Pennsylvania.3.8×019k1.9k38
52Jul 25, '25Reality Check: Trump hates South Park, but Google searches for it are up 670%! It was the most searched topic with Trump this afternoon. And unlike what Trump said, South Park's st3.4×542k5.8k880271
53Nov 10, '25Oy vey! Breaking records you don't wanna break: November has the worst ever consumer sentiment of current conditions since 1951. ~80% of pure independents disapprove of Trump on th3.0×471k5k1.4k342
54Jun 11, '22I've really cut back on tweeting political stuff, but I'll just say this. No incumbent president with an approval rating north of 75% in Gallup polling within his own party has eve3.0×013k1.9k84
55Nov 2, '24Well we know one pollster who isn't herding.2.9×450k5.8k23395
56Sep 8, '20Biden has been running for president for 501 days by count... He's been ahead of Trump for each of those 501 days. No challenger has ever led for that long.2.7×013k1.8k46
57Aug 20, '25Newsom's social media strategy/opposition to Trump is working. He's gained millions of social media followers. Google searches for him are up like a rocket. He's now the frontrunne2.7×428k7.1k1.1k289
58Dec 10, '18Voter fraud isn't the same thing as election fraud. What seems to have occurred in NC-9 was election fraud. The difference is key. In one, it is voters perpetrating the fraud. In t2.6×09.6k3k23
59Nov 19, '20Trump has no viable path to victory. Every single other candidate in modern history in his position has long since conceded the race by this point.2.6×012k1.3k30
60Dec 26, '18Honest question... Why does Beto get so much umph when Stacey Abrams got a higher share of the vote and seemed to run a much more unapologetically liberal campaign?2.5×010k1.3k29
61Nov 22, '21My personal thoughts on the Covid-19 vaccines are simple: I got my first shot on the first day I was eligible. I got my booster on the first day I was eligible. I think the vaccine2.5×013k1.1k44
62Oct 6, '20Look is Joe Biden leading? Yes. Is it close at this time? No. Are there any bright spots for Trump in the polling? No.2.3×011k1.1k61
63Jun 16, '25Tough for Trump to make deals with G7 countries when 61% to 81% in all have no confidence in Trump. Median G7 country with no confidence in the U.S. president has jumped 22 pts fro2.3×356k5.2k1.4k234
64Nov 8, '17Medicaid expansion is winning in early returns in Maine, and it's not close.2.3×09.1k2.1k0
65Dec 2, '20Biden won 306 electoral votes. He won by ~7 million votes nationally. The allegations the President makes about irregularities/fraud are unsubstantiated and a lie. It's absolutely 2.2×010k1.1k27
66Jun 19, '20Biden right now is ahead or down by a point in states containing over 400 electoral votes. He's also up 10 pts in national polls. If that was the result (& the piece points out2.0×07k1.4k127
67Oct 7, '20I'm gonna guess the President will not be tweeting out the latest Rasmussen poll. Just a guess.1.9×09.8k91919
68Mar 14, '20Folks if you got cute dog, cat, goat, cow, etc. photos or videos, put em here. It can make us feel a little less lonely.1.9×04.1k32140
69Nov 7, '20More convinced than ever that older Black Democratic primary voters in South Carolina won this presidential race for the Democrats.1.9×08.9k93572
70Nov 9, '18It. Was. A. Blue. Wave.1.9×08.5k1.4k13
71Sep 14, '20Joe Biden is a lot closer to winning Texas at this point than Donald Trump is to winning Minnesota, if the polls are anywhere close to right.1.9×08.7k1.1k26
72Dec 20, '20A larger percentage of Americans rank Trump's presidency in the lowest category possible (e.g. one of worst ever) than any president tested at the end of his presidency. (We have d1.9×07.4k1.4k71
73Oct 11, '20Joe Biden's polling better than any challenger since 1936.1.9×07.2k1.4k70
74Nov 8, '18To butcher a quote from Newt Gingrich after 1994, if this isn't a wave, I'd like to know what a wave is. This is this biggest net gain in the House for the Dems in the House since 1.7×06.9k1.5k32
75Nov 7, '18See to me this is a wave election. In the House, where the entire country got to vote, Dems are winning with ease. Further, there have been some surprises, which is indicative of a1.6×06.7k1.4k23
76Jun 12, '20CNN's last poll found that among suburban women Joe Biden had 63% to Donald Trump's 34%.1.5×06.2k1.2k20
77Sep 30, '20Folks, Joe Biden has never trailed in this race. Based upon these insta-polls, he will continue to lead this race. Every day Trump doesn't gain is a bad day for him. There is zippo1.5×06.8k95135
78Nov 12, '17I can report (unless my sources have failed me) that tomorrow will showcase the first public poll to show Doug Jones with a lead in the AL-Senate race. This race is very real.1.5×05.7k1.3k0
79Nov 10, '20Biden won this election. That's the tweet.1.5×07.1k7897
80May 24, '20Biden's clearly outpacing Clinton's pace. 4 years ago this week, Clinton & Trump were tied. Clinton was at 39% in polls including Gary Johnson. Today, Biden's up 7. He's at 48%1.4×05.7k1.2k55
81Jan 24, '21The fact that there are supposedly serious people who still can't admit that Biden won legitimately and that the election wasn't stolen is sad.1.4×07.1k5047
82Nov 16, '17Sexual assault/harassment is not one party's problem. It's the country's problem.1.4×05.1k1.5k0
83Feb 4, '19Black women from the south were a MAJOR reason Sanders lost the nomination in 2016. So he decides to give a separate SOTU response, when the Dem response is being given by a black 1.3×05.2k1.1k26
84Sep 30, '20There have been at least 4 scientific post-debate polls I have seen. Every single one found that voters (or voters who watched the debate) thought Biden won the debate.1.3×06.2k83416
85Oct 26, '20It really is noteworthy (I think) that Clinton's edge was collapsing at this point in 2016... There's basically no sign of that for Biden right now. His lead is holding in all the 1.3×05.2k67557
86May 17, '20High quality state polling (15k interviews & 20+ polls) since April 1 suggests Biden leads by 7-8 pts nationally, is ahead in states totaling a majority of electoral votes, &am1.2×04.4k1.1k39
87Sep 19, '20Greenfield 45% to Ernst 42% in the Selzer poll1.2×05k94110
88Oct 12, '20Biden's favorable/unfavorable ratings in NYT polls... Michigan: 54/42... Wisconsin: 55/42.... This isn't a lesser of two evils vote. Voters actually like Biden. HUGE difference wit1.2×04.7k98038
89Jun 11, '20Here's the fact: Trump's re-elect is in tremendous trouble. No serious analyst I know of believes he's anything but an underdog. His chance of winning is something like 1 in 4 or 11.1×04.5k60445
90Aug 16, '20Joe Biden is the first challenger since at least 1940 to head into the conventions with over 50% support against an incumbent president. That is, Biden heads into the conventions i1.1×04.3k1k35
91Feb 26, '21A $15 minimum wage passed in Florida with 61% of the vote in 2020. Biden got just 48% of the vote in the same Florida election.1.1×05k73729
92Feb 19, '20And with that HarrisX poll, the last domino has fallen. Every single national poll now has Sanders ahead.1.1×04.9k59224
93Nov 2, '20(Biden has a larger lead in FL than Clinton did... and she only lost by 1.2 points.)1.0×05.1k43720
94Jul 4, '18Alex Jones promised me a civil war today. Last time I trust that guy.1.0×04.9k6106
95Jan 18, '19Let's start a cute dog thread... Whose got a pup photo they wanna share?1.0×01.8k16573
96Nov 6, '20A look at the cumulative statewide House vote in states like GA, PA and WI suggests that the prez race in these states could have played out very differently. And are consistent wi1.0×04.3k63084
97Jul 18, '19A cab driver today knew who I was from tv. (This doesn't happen usually.) He said something that broke my heart. "I know you're Jewish..." Note: I say shalom on-air. He then said "1.0×04.9k5029
98Apr 1, '20Biden +3 in Wisconsin... Trump is in deep trouble if this is right.1.0×03.9k70425
99Jul 17, '20Remember when Mike Bloomberg parachuted into the Dem primary? Spent like a billion dollars? Came in fourth? And that he ran cause Biden was weak?... And then Biden won anyway?... a0.9×04.4k38220
100Dec 5, '20A common media crutch is to say Democrats live in a bubble. (Maybe so.) But the last month of many Republicans not acknowledging Biden's win shows many GOPers not only live in a bu0.9×04k60756
101Jul 9, '20I mean what's there really more to say about this race at this point? You got a president who has a net approval rating of -15 pts. A president who is down 10 to his opponent. A pa0.9×04k49132

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