Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

@FRHoffmann153k followers

Senior Research Fellow @IFS_Oslo / Non-Resident Fellow @CEPA Defense policy, missile technology, and nuclear strategy. Views are strictly my own.

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#	Date	Post	↓ Outlier	Views	Likes	Reposts	Bookmarks
1	Jan 14, '24	In this thread, I will explain why we are much closer to war with 🇷🇺 than most people realize and why our time window for rearmament is shorter than many believe. In my opinion,	343×	8.2M	20k	5.5k	8.2k
2	May 16, '23	If I was a Russian nuclear strategist today, I would be very worried. You just received proof of concept that Western air and missile defenses can intercept 100% of your tactical n	124×	3M	12k	1.6k	483
3	Jul 16, '24	Six months ago I wrote a viral thread, arguing that NATO has 2-3 years to prepare for Russia challenging NATO Art 5. I wanted to revisit the topic for a while. In light of @JDVance	102×	2.4M	12k	3k	3.5k
4	May 11, '23	Thread 🧵on the Storm Shadow land-attack cruise missile delivered by the UK that provides Ukraine, in principle, with an extremely potent long-range strike capability against harde	66.4×	1.6M	5.1k	813	441
5	May 7, '25	Yeah, doesn't seem to be a bad day to be selling this thing lmao	54.4×	1.3M	12k	1k	773
6	Sep 1, '24	Keep in mind that Moscow is protected by a ring of 22 S-300/S-400 air defense sites, most of which should cover the refinery. Additionally, there are at least 9 recently redeployed	53.3×	1.3M	6.8k	941	456
7	Feb 28, '25	It's time to unleash German industry on Russia. No more holding back.	44.4×	1.1M	25k	2.2k	344
8	May 11, '24	What happens if Russia employs a nuclear weapon? The reality is that no one really knows. However, what is equally true is that NATO is prepared for this type of scenario, and we h	42.4×	1M	3.2k	443	476
9	Aug 13, '23	Here is a long thread about conventional missile fuzes. It explains why Taurus offers a qualitative edge over Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG when engaging certain targets, and why it’s one	42×	1M	4.5k	857	1.1k
10	Aug 17, '24	As promised, here is a short thread on AGM-158A JASSM's bridge-busting capability, which I didn't cover in yesterday's thread. JASSM's ability to destroy bridges is largely on par	40.8×	976k	2.8k	366	305
11	Sep 3, '23	Thread about the April 2018 missile strikes against Syria, carried out by 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇫🇷. Not many people are aware of it but it constitutes, in my opinion, a major reason why Putin	39.7×	950k	4.4k	772	728
12	Jul 11, '23	There's a discussion on missile production capacities in Europe. I have a forthcoming piece on that, but the tldr is that it's a huge problem. Neither UK's Storm Shadow, nor German	35.8×	856k	2.5k	302	166
13	Jul 8, '24	Needless to say, the missile appears to be fully intact, with no visible damage on the fuselage. The exhaust stream coming out of the engine appears normal as well. The missile app	34.7×	830k	4.2k	820	216
14	Aug 16, '24	It's been some time since my last missile thread. With the AGM-158A JASSM now emerging as a viable option for Ukraine, it's a good opportunity to explore the basic capability profi	34.5×	824k	4k	514	470
15	Sep 23, '23	It seems that the Biden Administration has made the decision to provide Ukraine with MGM-140 ATACMS maneuvering missiles. In this thread, I want to explore the warhead effects of A	34.2×	819k	3.5k	570	605
16	Nov 21, '24	Please don't get caught up on the range of the missile system launched. Whether it was an ICBM or an IRBM, the range isn't the important factor. The fact that it carried a MIRVed p	30.7×	735k	5k	725	488
17	Jul 8, '24	To emphasize the absurdity of this argument: An AIM-120 and similar interceptor missiles will self-destruct mid-air if they miss their targets or lose radar lock. The likelihood of	30.4×	728k	7.5k	649	307
18	Mar 15, '24	To no one's surprise, it took around 24h for the secret information that was referenced in the parliamentary debate on Taurus to leak. This information pertains to the processing p	29.4×	703k	2.7k	488	454
19	Jan 14, '24	Here's the thing: The ongoing war in Ukraine is teaching Russia a crucial lesson - that the West lacks resolve. Domestic disunity and endless discussions about escalation only rein	28×	670k	6.1k	1.1k	161
20	Feb 21, '24	Reminder that in the early stages of the ATACMS debate, a key argument against delivering ATACMS was the aim to deter Iran from providing SRBMs to Russia. How did that strategy unf	27.2×	650k	6.4k	1.6k	202
21	Apr 11, '24	Let's face it, Ukraine's largest power station being permanently disabled is really bad. We are witnessing the failure of the appeasers and escalation managers' strategy in Ukraine	26.9×	644k	7.7k	1.6k	183
22	Jan 11, '25	I dislike some of the EU's regulatory overreach as much as anyone. But if Trump steps in to back Musk and Zuckerberg on this, I’ll wholeheartedly side with the EU bureaucrats, no m	26.6×	636k	11k	1.6k	528
23	Jun 3, '25	Waiting for a structural engineer to provide some BDA. I'd assume this is quite bad?	26.1×	625k	4.2k	209	143
24	Jul 15, '24	When people claim medium-range missiles in Germany are destabilizing because they can reach homeland targets deep inside Russia, including Moscow, ask how often they’ve complained	25.7×	615k	7.8k	1.8k	669
25	Mar 19, '25	I mean, 'kill switch' or not... The pure fact that Lockheed Martin had to send out this post shows the magnitude of the damage the U.S. defense industrial sector has suffered in re	25.7×	614k	13k	1.7k	372
26	Sep 22, '25	Russia would likely begin a war against NATO at extremely high intensity. Knowing it cannot win in the long term, Russia's goal would be to inflict as many casualties as possible a	25.5×	610k	5.3k	1k	617
27	Jul 11, '23	BREAKING: Exactly two months after the UK announced the delivery of Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine, Macron stated that 🇫🇷 would follow suit and deliver the French equiva	24.4×	584k	2.6k	392	160
28	Jan 14, '24	One common mistake in analyzing the threat posed by Russia is falling into the trap of 'mirror-imaging'. This means assuming that Russia views a potential conflict with us in the s	24.4×	583k	4.2k	306	94
29	Jan 14, '24	In addition, it is important to be cautious about extrapolating too many lessons from Ukraine & assuming that a war with 🇷🇺 would unfold in a similar manner, albeit on a larg	23.2×	556k	3.2k	152	34
30	Jan 14, '24	🇷🇺 does not plan for the type of large-scale conventional war with NATO that we are currently seeing in Ukraine & for which we are primarily preparing. Already before taking	22.8×	546k	2.9k	158	27
31	Jan 14, '24	Russian thinking on a war with NATO revolves around the concept of escalation control and escalation management. Russia's primary objective in a war with NATO is to effectively man	22.5×	537k	3.3k	221	53
32	Jul 11, '24	I saw a few takes today on why deploying INF-range missiles to Europe/Germany might strategically backfire, and that the timing of the decision was overhasty. I want to present the	22.2×	531k	2.8k	414	335
33	Jan 14, '24	Terminating hostilities early is necessary, given that 🇷🇺 must secure a victorous outcome before NATO's conventional superiority comes to bear, most notably that of the United St	21.6×	517k	2.9k	152	39
34	Jan 14, '24	This would entail, in particular, long-range strikes against critical civilian infrastructure across European NATO countries early on. The message to NATO governments: Don't come t	21.5×	515k	3.1k	225	55
35	Jan 14, '24	Rather than comprehensively defeating NATO in a prolonged ground war, similar to what we see in Ukraine, Russian doctrine suggests that Russia would attempt to coerce NATO into sub	20.7×	496k	2.9k	211	45
36	Feb 27, '25	I've said it before, and I'll say it again: If you take a step back and assess the situation from the strategic level, Russia is a dead man walking. I don’t know exactly when Russi	20.7×	495k	5.7k	1.2k	469
37	May 9, '24	I mean in the world of missile systems, this thing is basically a flying brick with a radar cross-section larger than Norway's sovereign wealth fund. Why is Russia incapable of sho	19.4×	464k	3.1k	227	166
38	Aug 18, '24	People haven't taken this point I've been trying to make for years as seriously as they should. If Germany can't find 3 billion euros in a 481 billion euro budget to support Ukrain	18.8×	449k	4.1k	855	152
39	Sep 6, '24	A few people asked if all 22 S-300/S-400 sites around Moscow are still active or if some systems have been removed and redeployed, likely closer to Ukraine. In other words, does Mo	17.9×	429k	3.4k	412	350
40	Jan 14, '24	Simultaneously, Russia would extend its nuclear umbrella over any NATO territory it managed to capture in an initial assault. This sends a second message: Any endeavor to retake th	17.4×	417k	2.9k	180	42
41	Jan 14, '24	I am with the Eastern European states that we have at best 2-3 years from today to re-establish a credible deterrence posture vis-à-vis Russia. Otherwise, we run the grave risk tha	17.4×	415k	4k	457	69
42	Jan 14, '24	The psychological fear of escalation, which may ultimately result in unacceptable damage, is supposed to open the door for negotiations about the future of NATO and the security ar	17.3×	413k	2.9k	177	38
43	Oct 17, '24	I cannot understand why people are surprised or shocked by Zelensky's nuclear weapon statement. Ukraine's desire to acquire a nuclear deterrent is a logical conclusion given the cu	17.1×	408k	9.4k	1.3k	217
44	Jan 14, '24	This type of warfighting scenario is not a contest of forces, but primarily a risk-taking competition. The question becomes: Who will be the first to back down when confronted with	16.1×	384k	3k	218	56
45	Jul 28, '24	Here is an uncomfortable truth some need to hear: Since at least 2014, Russia has played the West for fools. They have lied, cheated, and acted in bad faith, yet Western analysts a	16×	382k	6.4k	1.1k	226
46	Jan 14, '24	This is why Russia pursues this type of strategy. Russia does not need to match NATO's conventional power. As long as NATO gives in first amid mounting psychological pressure due t	15.7×	376k	3.2k	288	64
47	Jan 14, '24	As Cold War historians know, the balance of military power is not deterministic of outcomes in risk-taking competitions. Instead, they are often determined by the balance of resolv	15.5×	370k	3k	207	82
48	Jan 14, '24	What we need, especially in Europe, is whole-of-society effort to get our affairs in order. There's no denying that this will come with a significant cost, but I fail to see any ot	14.5×	346k	5.1k	440	98
49	Jan 14, '24	Our lack of preparedness, both in the physcial space but also in terms of our cognitive ability to think through these scenarios, is encouraging 🇷🇺. Since 2014, Russian intellect	14.4×	344k	3.8k	387	60
50	Jan 14, '24	NATO must credibly deny Russia the ability to seize any substantial part of NATO territory or to threaten strikes against NATO critical infrastructure. This is needed to escape the	14.4×	344k	3.1k	232	26
51	Jan 22, '24	Three thoughts on this: 1) The longer Ukraine resists, the more time we have for our own rearmament efforts. If Ukraine wins, the Russian threat might recede for decades to come. 2	14×	335k	2.5k	424	89
52	Jan 14, '24	This means Russia does not have to wait until its conventional power is reconstituted. Scenarios where we have 5-10 years to rearm following the end of the war are way too optimist	14×	335k	3k	194	29
53	Jan 14, '24	We must also have a serious discussion not only about how to deter a war with 🇷🇺 but also about how to fight one. Are we prepared to retaliate against Russian critical civilian i	13.5×	322k	3.4k	237	39
54	Jun 26, '25	On a sidenote regarding the Fordow attack, which involved 12 bombs double tapping six aimpoints with pinpoint precision: Major shoutout to the reviewer who recently rejected one of	12.9×	308k	3.7k	241	386
55	Jul 9, '24	Here is a summary of the details that I posted yesterday conclusively proving the missile in question is a Kh-101, not an AIM-120 or any other type of missile. From the rear sectio	12.6×	301k	2.5k	464	269
56	Aug 27, '24	Ukraine's Sapsan SRBM is one of three primary missile projects that 🇺🇦 is working on. The other two are the Neptune ASCM (in production) and the Korshun LACM (in development). Hr	12×	286k	2.6k	324	162
57	Aug 18, '24	The Kursk offensive revealed that Russian reserves are as depleted as Ukraine's. The notion that Russia has an infinite and steady supply of manpower and equipment is a myth. Howev	11.7×	280k	3.3k	373	94
58	May 16, '23	You must also wonder what this means for the Russian (or Chinese for that matter) strategic nuclear deterrent. Yes, shooting down ICBMs is a whole different kind of challenge and m	11.4×	273k	2.3k	93	17
59	Feb 26, '24	Regarding the Taurus disaster: German soldiers or staff would only be required in Ukraine if the Chancellor does not trust Ukrainians to input the targeting data into the software	10.3×	245k	2.4k	436	54
60	Jul 9, '24	Popsicle guy will forever be the gold standard for the stupidity of Russian propaganda. I'm glad I lived to experience this moment.	10.1×	240k	4.9k	349	127
61	Aug 21, '25	I know much of the discussion focuses on the massive implications Flamingo’s mass production has for the ongoing war. But let's not overlook the major consequences Ukraine’s acquis	9.9×	237k	2.9k	501	224
62	Oct 11, '24	This is the way. If Russia challenges NATO Article 5, we must respond with overwhelming and devastating force. More importantly, make it clear to Russia now that any aggression wil	9.7×	231k	4.8k	828	118
63	May 24, '24	Turkey right now remembering they traded whatever this is against the F-35 and Western-made air and missile defense systems that actually work.	9.0×	216k	2.4k	249	61
64	Feb 12, '25	European capitals need to get their act together. The United States is pressuring Ukraine into a settlement that preserves much of Russia’s power and rewards its imperial ambitions	8.8×	211k	3.7k	629	133
65	Sep 22, '24	Laughing my ass off at those who claimed long-range strikes into Russia wouldn't make a difference. The outsized and potentially strategic-level effects of these strikes is undenia	8.7×	209k	4.4k	769	82
66	Jul 4, '25	Yes, it’s infuriating that the United States has halted delivery of critical Patriot interceptors, and yes, the 30 PAC-3 MSEs stored in Poland would have helped and are badly neede	8.6×	205k	3.4k	845	161
67	Aug 22, '24	Germany's decision not to restart Taurus production in 2022 was one of its worst strategic, industrial, and political choices since the beginning of the war, and that says a lot.	8.1×	194k	2.8k	551	66
68	May 13, '24	Scholz PR once again on point. Can he at least pretend to see a purpose in being there?	7.6×	183k	3.4k	470	103
69	Aug 7, '24	To analysts and academics who are hot and ready to warn of the escalation risks of attacking a nuclear power on their home territory, ask yourself this before you post today: In th	7.6×	183k	3.3k	578	92
70	Jul 16, '24	But first recap, why 2-3 years? Russia's primary objective in attacking NATO territory would not be to take & hold land - at least initially. Russia would want to challenge Art	7.5×	179k	2.2k	181	63
71	Jul 16, '24	How might 🇷🇺 achieve this? By initiating small-scale incursions into Eastern Europe, followed by rapid escalation against Western European states to increase the costs of resista	7.4×	177k	2.1k	156	39
72	Sep 4, '24	The message we are sending is clear: if you possess nuclear weapons, you can bomb civilians with impunity. The United States & Europe won't intervene. Better build your own nuc	7.0×	168k	3.5k	1k	72
73	Aug 11, '24	Leute, ich finde, wir sollten in Deutschland auf den „Weird“-Trend aus den USA aufspringen. Anstatt endlos zu diskutieren, warum ein Stopp der Militärhilfen für die Ukraine moralis	6.9×	165k	2.5k	358	62
74	Feb 25, '25	Swedish news sources now report that the Swedish Procurement Agency has been tasked with ordering Taurus cruise missiles for the Armed Forces. Initial operational capability is exp	6.8×	162k	3.9k	413	94
75	Jul 8, '24	Aren't you glad we never delivered Taurus and allowed Ukraine to strike Russian missile launchers? Imagine the horrible things that could have happened.	6.4×	152k	4.3k	956	37
76	Jul 8, '24	I'm once again asking Western decision-makers, especially in DC and Berlin, if minimizing the risks of escalation is worth it at all costs. Equip Ukraine with more long-range strik	6.2×	148k	3.6k	927	20
77	Sep 25, '24	The West's conduct is an absolute clown show at all levels. Instead of mobilizing our industries, rearming, and defending the world order that has ensured our peace and prosperity	6.1×	145k	2.8k	780	99
78	Jan 11, '24	This is the South Korean Hyunmoo-2B. She has a range of up to 800 km, depending on the payload. She thinks it's very unfair that her mean North Korean cousin gets to play in Ukrain	6.1×	145k	3k	444	35
79	Jul 16, '24	While we admittedly can't predict the future and things might turn out better than the worst-case scenario, assuming this as the baseline for your planning is foolish. We must prep	6.0×	145k	2.5k	274	44
80	May 13, '25	The German government is already messing this thing up, there’s no other way to put it. The deadline has passed. Germany and Europe must now outline concrete consequences. If Europ	5.7×	136k	2.6k	592	90
81	Sep 7, '24	It's now clear that Western long-range strike weapons won't be approved for deep strikes into Russia anytime soon. Ukraine should now focus on accelerating and advancing its domest	5.4×	128k	2.2k	331	55
82	Feb 26, '24	Looking forward to the 🇩🇪 Chancellor explaining why it's necessary for German soldiers to input targeting data into South Korean Taurus KEPD-350K so that South Korea can preempti	5.1×	123k	2.6k	426	42
83	Sep 19, '25	So I don't say this lightly, but at some point we have to respond in some way. After one warning you radar lock. After the second warning you launch.	5.1×	121k	3.2k	434	69
84	Aug 20, '25	Lavrov is literally performing standup comedy at this point.	4.9×	118k	4.5k	662	64
85	Aug 24, '25	There is no reason why European missile manufacturers could not have built such a system in 3.5 years of war, and no reason why European governments should not have funded it. Now	4.7×	114k	2.5k	432	116
86	Jul 16, '24	Build up your militaries. We don't need war-capable European armies in 2030; we needed them yesterday. Most importantly, our actions in the coming months and years will determine n	4.6×	110k	2.7k	311	37
87	Aug 26, '24	It drives me crazy that we expect Ukraine to defend these types of missile raids by relying solely on missile defense assets. It's ineffective and hugely inefficient. We're burning	4.5×	108k	2.6k	654	48
88	Jul 16, '24	It is paramount that we act, and I want European decision-makers to panic. Not the kind of panic that paralyzes you, but the kind that triggers your fight-or-flight instinct—and yo	4.5×	108k	2.4k	243	21
89	Sep 9, '24	Ben is right. What we are currently doing is extremely dangerous. If you "escort" an adversarial strike weapon through your airspace rather than to shoot them down, you signal that	4.3×	104k	2.1k	494	46
90	May 26, '24	What I find incredibly puzzling is that the West is always searching for Russian red lines, yet seems unable to establish its own. Why can't Scholz & Biden declare that unless	4.1×	97k	2.9k	732	37
91	Mar 7, '24	Once again, @MBDADeutschland confirms that Ukraine could use Taurus without direct German involvement and without German soldiers on the ground. Anyone claiming otherwise, whether	4.0×	95k	2.4k	599	55
92	Sep 1, '24	The inability of Russia's air and missile defense systems to protect against relatively crude long-range one-way drone attacks is surprising. While the S-300/S-400 have demonstrate	3.7×	88k	2.2k	149	27
93	Dec 30, '23	The West must stop playing games and start providing Ukraine with a robust long-range strike capability to allow Ukraine to attack Russian critical infrastructure and strike milita	3.5×	84k	2.2k	402	37
94	Sep 4, '24	Germany's focus on missile defense appears increasingly detached from reality. Purely defensive missile defense concepts are failing disastrously in Ukraine and would do the same i	3.5×	83k	2.2k	466	43
95	Aug 7, '25	Average German Airforce engineer on the way to repair a radar that was a declared total loss by industry.	2.9×	70k	2.6k	169	132
96	May 20, '24	Does anyone in the US administration truly believe that Ukrainian-operated HIMARS striking Russian targets 10-40 km behind the border could spiral into the start of a nuclear World	2.9×	68k	2.6k	377	25
97	Jan 27, '25	Nice. Radars are likely the least replacable parts of Russian IAMD. So this hurts Russia quite a bit.	2.1×	50k	2.7k	193	36
98	Jul 8, '24	This is the result of a policy that prioritizes our security at all costs, even as Russia LITERALLY bombs children's hospitals. I'm disgusted with my government and Western decisio	1.9×	46k	2.5k	485	18
99	Jul 28, '24	Russia has never taken us seriously when we approached them from a position of weakness. Even if you doubt that approaching Russia from a position of strength will work, why insist	1.7×	42k	2.2k	209	16
100	Sep 7, '22	Imagine what would have happened if we hadn't failed Ukraine and started to provide long-range artillery, MBTs, IFVs, and F-16s in March/April. This thing may well have been over b	1.3×	0	2.9k	403	23
101	Oct 11	🚀 A year ago, I wrote about the lack of scalable mini jet engine production in Europe and the wider West. Demand has since accelerated faster than anticipated, driven by Western p	0.5×	12k	202	39	78

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