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Dawie Scholtz

@DawieScholtz75k followers

Proudly South African. Management consultant most of the time. Tweeting about politics some of the time. Elections nerd, who used to work for the DA (2010-2014)

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1May 30, '24Gauteng is indeed also gone.64.1×1.9M5.7k731155
2May 30, '24KZN is indeed gone.49.2×1.5M7.5k1.1k120
3May 30, '24The National Parliamentary Majority is gone. Probably forever.38×1.1M7.2k1.3k230
4May 30, '241/ News24 Projection for NATIONAL BALLOT: ANC 42.3% (-15.2) DA 21.8% (+1) MK 13.6% (+13.6) EFF 9% (-1.8) IFP 3.5% (+0.1) PA 2.2% (+1.2) Extraordinary election! MK the key driving f26.7×807k86631068
5May 31, '24UMLAZI, ETHEKWINI, 170 000 voters: 2024 MK 71% ANC 13% IFP 10% EFF 3% DA 1% 2021 ANC 57% EFF 19% IFP 11% DA 1% 2019 ANC 72% EFF 18% IFP 5% DA 2% Speechless. This is mind-blowing. T22.8×687k4.2k1.1k154
6May 29, '24I'm back! And with a biggie. It's our first KZN data point. The Grove Combined School, Mooi Mpofana, KZN MK 52% (+52) ANC 37% (-35) DA 4% (-2) IFP 3% (-2) Turnout 60% WELCOME TO YO22×662k5k800142
7May 31, '24Greetings! Sorry, have been trying to refresh our national projection for hours. Had a technical problem. National Projection Update: ANC 40.5% DA 21.9% MK 14.3% EFF 9.3% IFP 3.8% 20.3×611k2.5k48581
8May 31, '24This is big. KZN Projection: MK 44% (+44) ANC 18% (-36) IFP 18% (+2) DA 14% (-) EFF 2% (-8) Turnout 62% Political earthquake. ANC got crushed. IFP and DA's growth got capped. EFF t15.4×466k1.9k48059
9May 31, '24The longer view on Soweto: ANC % in Soweto: 2011 - 87% 2014 - 77% 2016 - 71% 2019 - 73% 2021 - 51% 2024 - 49% Soweto has had enough it seems.14.1×426k4.1k818124
10May 31, '24Mpumalanga Update! It's getting even spicier with 54% of the votes in! ANC 50.4% MK 17.9% EFF 13.6% DA 12.1% FF+ 1.6% ANC has shifted down a little since the first projection. Gett14.1×425k1.9k31844
11May 30, '24And now some numbers from Msunduzi in KZN: House of Prayer Church: MK 49% (+49) ANC 21% (-52) !!!!!! DA 15% (+4) PA 7% (+7) IFP 4% (-) EFF 3% (-7) This is going far beyond my (unsc13.7×414k2.5k52489
12May 29, '24The first officially IEC-declared VD just came out! Bizana Baptist Church, Mbizana, Eastern Cape: ANC 61% (-12) EFF 18% (+2) MK 10% (+10) (!! in EC) UDM 5% (+5) DA 3% (-1) Turnout 12.4×373k1.7k39274
13May 30, '24Thokoza Club, uPhongolo, KZN: MK 52% (+52) IFP 20% (+3) DA 12% (-5) ANC 9% (-39) Turnout 51% (-14) This is another mind-blowing one. Unbelievable and devastating for the ANC, in fo12.4×373k2.4k51358
14May 30, '24So Western Cape Time! DA holds convincingly. DA 55% (-1) ANC 20% (-9) PA 9% (+9) EFF 4% (-) FF+ 2% (-) MK 1% (-) Exceptional result for the DA. Details in the write-up, I'll also t11.9×360k1.2k22735
15Jun 28, '22Loadshedding Stage: 6 Unemployment: 45% Gini Coefficient: 63 2021 Irregular Expenditure: R167 bn Murders (Jan-Mar): 6082 Pass grade: 30% Every major national KPI is flashing bright11.8×07.2k3.2k134
16May 30, '24By the way, I had not mentioned it previously, but it looks like total turnout is going to settle at around 57-58% (It was 66% in 2019). So now we can settle the long queue/electio11.1×335k1.6k50269
17May 31, '24And that's it for me folks. Thanks very much for following along and thanks for the supportive comments along the way. Incredible election. Privilege to have been here for it. I'm 9.3×281k3.9k19534
18May 31, '24The long view on Umlazi: ANC % in Umlazi: 2011 - 82% 2014 - 86% 2016 - 82% 2019 - 72% 2021 - 57% 2024 - 13% The bottom really fell out here.9.3×279k2.7k68573
19May 29, '24Terribly sorry, but it's obvious that the IEC's performance was appalling today. Absolute travesty for such a watershed moment for the country. STAY IN THE LINE9.0×271k3.1k81841
20May 30, '24We just announced the News24 Mpumalanga projection now on a broadcast: ANC 52% (-19) MK 17% (+17) EFF 13% (-) DA 12% (+2) Totally gob-smacked with this one. MK did huge damage in S8.8×265k1.2k25528
21Jun 7, '241/ I've done a deep demographic analysis of the election result. Read it comprehensively here: It is paywalled, but I will share the key stats in the thread below.8.7×263k820312382
22May 29, '24I have received a first VD result. Laerskool Pam Brink, Ekurhuleni ward 72: DA 69% (+10) FF+ 8% (-16) ANC 6% (-6) MK 5% (+5) EFF 3% (+3) Turnout: 38% (-33) (!!) Very first sign tha8.5×257k86326250
23Feb 25, '24Each province's share of total registered voters: GP: 24% KZN: 21% EC: 12% WC: 12% LP: 10% MP: 7% NW: 6% FS: 5% NC: 2% Just in case you didn't know how dominant GP and KZN is in ou8.0×242k1k535116
24Feb 22, '23This De Ruyter interview is one of the best and most honest sit-down interviews to date in democratic South Africa.7.4×223k1.4k18732
25May 31, '24In KZN, there are only four ways to 50: MK+ANC = 62 MK+IFP = 62 MK+DA = 58 ANC+IFP+DA = 50 (on the dot)7.1×214k92723142
26May 30, '24Gauteng Projection: ANC 35% (-15) DA 27% (-) EFF 12% (-3) MK 10% ActionSA 4% FF+ 3% (-1) PA 2% (+1) IFP 1% (-) Rise 1% BOSA 1%7.1×213k70917425
27May 30, '24We have not spoken about Gauteng. Given what's happening in KZN, it will be crucial for national calculus. Chiawelo informal settlement, Merafong City, GP: ANC 75% (-3) EFF 13% (-)7.1×213k1.3k25923
28May 31, '24SOWETO, 630 000 voters 2024 ANC 49% MK 18% EFF 13% ActionSA 7% DA 5% 2021 ANC 51% ActionSA 21% EFF 14% DA 3% 2019 ANC 73% EFF 17% DA 5% Wow. The ANC sub-50 in Soweto was UNTHINKABL7.0×212k81728539
29May 30, '24This is vitally important: First result from Southern KZN. This is the ANC's strongest part of the province. Myeme Junior Secondary School, Umzimkhulu ANC 59% (-30) MK 39% (+39) Tu6.9×207k1.5k30331
30Nov 1, '21What a wow. @Action4SA just won a VD off of the ANC in Soweto. Protea Glen Primary School Turnout 46% 2021 ActionSA 34% (+34) ANC 32% (-26) EFF 25% (-6) DA 3% (-4) (didn't exist in6.8×05.1k1.3k22
31Jun 29, '24This is the worst one. Worse than 99. 😢6.8×206k2.3k155100
32Feb 25, '24Where did ANC votes come from in 2021? KZN 1 068 354 (20%) GP 957 329 (18%) EC 941 250 (17%) LP 785 960 (15%) MP 478 888 (9%) NW 382 705 (7%) FS 321 949 (6%) WC 305 764 (6%) NC 1656.6×200k1k43496
33May 30, '24A second result form Umzimkhulu in KZN: Cabane Junior Secondary School ANC 53% (-35) MK 42% (+42) EFF 1% (-4) Turnout: 51% (-4) Again, this is literally one of the ANC's strongest 6.4×193k1.1k25639
34May 30, '24I have received a first result from eThekwini. Shree Emperumal Temple Society. Indian community. DA 86% (+8) MK 4% (+4) ANC 2% (-12) Turnout: 80% (-9) Huge turnout. Extraordinary n6.3×190k1.4k24539
35Jun 1, '22Final tweet for the evening. ANC % in ward 53 Soweto: 2011: 90% 2014: 78% 2016: 67% 2019: 71% 2021: 58% Yesterday: 32% The end is nigh.6.2×04.9k1.1k26
36Dec 7, '231/ Interesting set of by-election results last night. Saldanha Bay ward 9: EFF 57% (+42) (!) ANC 43% (-28) Turnout: 38% (+6) This is one of those results that sets off alarms that 5.9×177k95633021
37Jul 29, '23The EFF’s organisational capacity over the last couple of weeks with all these 10 year celebration events has been very impressive. And it’s clearly got huge financial resources…5.9×177k88315212
38May 30, '24Going through a number of provinces now to prepare projections. It's a wave across all provinces. Really bad for the ANC. Specific numbers to follow throughout the day.5.7×172k86717714
39May 30, '24KZN update: A very slow count and no precise % projection yet. However, we can confirm that MK will be the largest party in KZN. That much is already very clear.5.7×171k1.4k22619
40Feb 20, '24Unemployment, now vs. before the 2019 election: North West 52% (+9) Eastern Cape 47% (-) Limpopo 47% (+8) Mpumalanga 46% (+5) Free State 44% (+5) KZN 43% (+2) Northern Cape 43% (+45.4×162k91261561
41May 29, '24More KZN incoming: Ivanhoe Primary School, Impendle MK 42% (+42) ANC 39% (-17) DA 14% (-4) EFF 2% (-16) Turnout 67% Small VD. Only 66 voters. MK doing damage in all directions5.1×153k1.3k27625
42May 30, '24Hi, Sorry for going quiet. Had some technical issues. We're back. Some projections loading for the evening: - Gauteng details - KZN details - North West - Limpopo - National + Regi5.0×150k7755420
43Feb 25, '24For those interested in the registered voter totals: GP: 6 489 177 (+293 494) KZN: 5 723 821 (+276 006) EC: 3 430 591 (+177 284) WC: 3 290 440 (+178 510) LP: 2 770 581 (+185 501) M4.9×148k822453102
44Jan 12, '23This is absurd. The ANC simply cannot continue talking about blackouts as if they are an external party to it. The media shouldn't allow it, even in the headline. We have blackouts4.9×147k1.3k5335
45May 29, '24Florence Store in Msukaligwa, Mpumalanga ward 19: ANC 65% (-13) EFF 15% (+13) MK 8% (+8) Turnout: 60% (-12) It's a small VD (197 votes). But that's a 13 point swing against the ANC4.9×147k95525628
46May 26, '24Sorry for being repetitive, but I am worried about this. YOU HAVE TO VOTE EXACTLY AT THE VOTING STATION WHERE YOU ARE REGISTERED. YOU WILL NOT EVEN GET A NATIONAL BALLOT AT ANOTHER4.8×146k73959735
47May 30, '24And some rural Western Cape coming as well: Klaarstroom community hall, Prince Albert, coloured and white voters. DA 51% (-12) PA 46% (+46) ANC 2% (-28) Turnout: 94% Wow. PA absolu4.4×133k1.3k27621
48May 29, '24Sigwinyamana tent, Dr Pixley Ka Isaka Seme, Mpumalanga: ANC 37% (-26) MK 26% (+26) (!) DA 16% (+10) FF+ 11% (-7) Turnout: 48% (-2) This is in the Zulu-speaking part of Mpumalanga. 4.3×129k85920420
49May 31, '24So it looks like the national swing against the ANC is going to be -16%. Distributed across the provinces like this: KZN -36% MP -20% GP -15% WC -9% NC -9% FS -9% EC -5% NW -3% LM 4.3×129k71818736
50May 30, '24Given the nature of the situation, going to focus deep on all early KZN results. Quarme Farm School, uMvoti: ANC 41% (-9) MK 27% (+27) IFP 16% (-3) DA 9% (-1) EFF 0% (-11) Turnout:4.2×126k70018220
51May 31, '24A word for my friend @waynesussman, who worked with Markdata on a KZN poll that put MK at 46% in KZN a few weeks ago. A lot of people laughed. We just projected them to 44%.4.0×121k1.1k18527
52Nov 1, '21And I believe @Action4SA has just won it's first voting district! Kwadukuza, ward 15, Indian community in Stanger 2021 Turnout 52% ActionSA 37% (+37) DA 36% (-18) ANC 18% (-13) 2013.8×02.9k74517
53Jun 1, '22And I can confirm that the EFF has won a third straight ward off of the ANC! Important pattern emerging. Rand West Ward 29 EFF 55% (+30) ANC 40% (-20) Huge swing. The ANC is in big3.8×02.8k78112
54May 29, '24Big picture: We don't know that much yet. Some hypotheses that are starting to firm up: 1) MK doing big damage in KZN 2) MK spilling into Mpumalanga 3) Swing against the ANC everyw3.7×111k71617232
55Sep 30, '25Personal comment: I cannot adequately express how angry reading this press statement makes me. It is literally sickening.3.6×109k1.6k36584
56May 18, '24I am voting in Dubai this morning and can confirm ~500 SAFFAs in the queue at 07:15 AM in 30 degrees plus.3.5×105k1.4k15312
57May 4, '22In other news folks: I have been very reliably informed that the EFF just won ward 5 Mafikeng from the ANC! EFF 68% (+33) (!) ANC 32% (-20) If you look across all the numbers from 3.4×02.4k69413
58Nov 28, '21President Ramaphosa showing the UK, EU and US the absolute finger on travel restrictions. Unsure whether it was the right thing to do, but damn, that felt good. Someone had to say 3.3×03k43316
59Jul 28, '24This is based on cherry-picked data. The exact opposite is true in the aggregate. DA regained white voters nationally and remained stable with black voters in the aggregate. Sorry,3.3×98k87230443
60Jul 20, '25In only today’s Sunday Times: 1) SETA looted 2) GP Hospital Boards Compromised 3) R2bn Ekurhuleni fraud scheme 4) Madibeng looted with impunity 5) The RAF in chaos 6) Joburg sellin3.2×95k2.1k89496
61Feb 9, '23Of course the single most important signal is who the Electricity Minister is. If it's Anton Eberhard or another proper expert it could be helpful. If it's one of the ANC old timer3.1×92k7511133
62Mar 9, '25Looks like the Jozi vs Jozi concept is going global…3.0×92k1.3k36939
63Oct 23, '19Thoughts: 1) SA needs a modern, multi-racial, sensible political party that can implement smart economics for growth and redistribution 2) The ANC has proven it can't achieve that 3.0×02.2k6155
64May 29, '24I get the feeling there are going to be lots of people still in queues at 9PM. Remember: If you are in line at 9pm YOU CAN STILL VOTE. Just make sure you get in line before 9pm.3.0×90k7823864
65May 30, '24And our first result form Northern KZN. KwaMpunzi High School, eDumbe: IFP 60% (+37) MK 12% (+12) ABC 9% (+9) ANC 5% (-17) NFP has collapsed into IFP and MK here.2.9×86k71316712
66Nov 4, '21This is it for me folks - thanks for following along, it's been an amazing week. I'm writing up a detailed analysis of the election for @News24 that they will publish tomorrow morn2.7×02.6k1474
67Mar 23, '20He may have been late, but that was an historic, strong, presidential, legacy-making statement by Cyril Ramaphosa. All the research I've read suggests he's doing the right thing wi2.5×02.3k3582
68Nov 3, '21So based on our projections, the ANC % per metro is: Mangaung: 51% (-5) eThekwini: 44% (-12) Nelson Mandela Bay: 39% (-3) Ekurhuleni: 38% (-10) Tshwane: 34% (-7) Johannesburg: 33% 2.3×01.6k42915
69Jun 22, '22Deputy President: 2014-2018 ANC Deployment Head: 2012-20172.3×01.3k6893
70May 9, '19We've got ourselves a race in GP, people! East Drie Village (Merafong City): 2019: ANC - 30% EFF - 61% (!) DA - 5% 2016: ANC - 57% EFF - 24% DA - 8% 2014: ANC - 50% EFF - 24% DA - 2.0×01.3k5750
71Aug 4, '22So the list of high profile DA exits now: - Lindiwe Mazibuko - Patricia De Lille - Herman Mashaba - Mmusi Maimane - Phumzile van Damme - Bongani Baloyi - Athol Trollip - Mbali Ntul1.9×01.2k41526
72Mar 17, '20I've just been contacted by journo who wants to use my tweets on the Coronavirus numbers in a story. Everyone, please stick to credible sources (gov, WHO, medical experts, etc.) I 1.9×01.6k3402
73Nov 2, '21Another suburban result from Johannesburg. Parkhurst Primary School Turnout: 54% 2021 DA 63% (-26) (!) ActionSA 19% (+19) ANC 4% 2016 DA 89% ANC 8% It seems like ActionSA is taking1.8×01.4k3653
74Nov 1, '21The IEC just announced 3.5 million people had voted by noon. If you add the special votes it implies total national turnout by noon of 14%. That's very, very low.1.8×01.1k3824
75Jun 22, '22I will never forget the total unity of the ANC in defending President Zuma during the many Motions of no Confidence against him in Parliament.1.8×01.4k2866
76May 18, '22Also, who won the R22 million contract for the flag?1.7×01.3k32511
77Sep 26, '21Julius Malema gave a highly electorally-effective speech today. Direct hit for marginal ANC voters.1.7×01.5k2610
78Jul 28, '25Blatant theft. The communities won’t have roads nor economic development. But some random connected person got a R200mn+ payday. Free State voted ANC in 2024. They are getting what1.7×51k82335519
79Jul 13, '25The only solution is electoral.1.7×51k9081558
80Nov 1, '21Another Joburg result I've received from a party agent, TBC by the IEC: SEANAMARENA HIGH SCHOOL Turnout 42% 2021 ANC 47% (-23) ActionSA 29% (+29) EFF 13% DA 3% (-8) 2016 ANC 70% EF1.6×01.1k3119
81May 8, '19EFF winning 33% of the vote in a tiny voting station in deep rural Transkei is not entirely insignificant!1.5×01.2k2810
82Jan 6, '21What's happening in Washington, DC has a real AWB vibe to it.1.5×01.1k2452
83Nov 2, '211/ Historic moment: @News24 projects that the ANC will for the first time ever receive less than 50% of the national vote. NATIONAL PROJECTION: ANC 47.2% (-7) DA 21.8% (-5) EFF 10.1.4×078233817
84Nov 1, '21Let's assume for a moment we are tracking towards 45% turnout overall... Then it would mean 1) ~13 million eligible adults didn't register to vote 2) ~14 million registered voters 1.4×081833413
85Nov 22, '21Folks, what's happening is the following: 1) The oppo parties couldn't get to a deal 2) All the oppo parties (including EFF) voting DA 3) DA wins speaker, mayor, etc. 4) DA forced 1.4×079433914
86Nov 1, '21I've seen the provincial breakdowns of turnout as at 13:30. The numbers, excluding special votes: Northern Cape 16.3% Limpopo 15% Free State 14.8% Gauteng 14.3% Western Cape 13.7% 1.4×068534812
87Nov 1, '21I'm starting to hear rumblings of a major swing in Soweto away from the ANC. We're potentially in for an explosive result in Johannesburg.1.3×01.1k1778
88Nov 2, '21It's getting serious in Gauteng now. We're very close to making a projection in Ekurhuleni. It's an interesting result :) Stay tuned.1.3×01.2k1399
89Nov 4, '21Stating the obvious here, but we have competitive electoral democracy in South Africa now. Exciting times.1.3×01.1k2045
90Nov 21, '21It’s too late.1.2×09642515
91Nov 22, '21Allow me to nerd out in an embarrassingly sincere way for a moment. How awesome is it that we're all figuring out competitive multi-party democracy together? A first for SA. This e1.2×097419610
92Nov 4, '21ELDORADO PARK, 30 000 voters 2016: Turnout 64% DA 81% ANC 11% 2019: Turnout 69% DA 78% ANC 12% 2021: Turnout 54% PA 61% DA 20% ANC 7% ActionSA 6% Extraordinary result! The PA has b1.2×08172293
93Jun 10, '22So in summary: 1) For 10 yrs, ANC enables RET to loot SA 2) Then for 5 yrs, 'unity' with RET 3) Congress coming, RET dish dirt on CR 4) No answers from CR on dirt (!!!) 5) So now, 1.2×08462182
94Nov 3, '21If you compare the 2011 local government election results with the 2021 projections, the ANC losses by metro over the last 10 years are: Johannesburg: -26 Ekurhuleni: -24 Tshwane: 1.1×071126214
95Oct 27, '21We have loadshedding this week and in general because of bad energy policy and poor SoE management in this country over successive ANC administrations. There is no one to blame but1.1×08472262
96Nov 3, '211/ I'm looking into the Johannesburg figures and there's a fascinating trend within the ActionSA vote that's worth discussing. Suburbs, ActionSA: PR: 18% Ward: 13% Townships, Actio1.1×09611524
97Nov 1, '21I am also hearing reports (unconfirmed) that @Action4SA have won a VD in the Johannesburg inner city.1.1×09061552
98Nov 22, '21If the DA holds onto JHB for a significant period of time, Dr. Mpho Phalatse is going to build a head of steam in internal DA politics: - JHB Mayor - Medical Doctor, clearly smart 1.0×09091174
99Nov 22, '21There is no moment in living memory in our politics where the ANC has been and felt this far removed from the central plot. Tonight the ANC feels the least relevant I can remember.1.0×08491867
100Aug 13I've done some elections modelling on the metros. See my thoughts and expectations here: Great chat - thanks for the opportunity @Jonathan_Moakes! Done 3 weeks ago and I promise wi1.0×31k1002861
101Nov 12, '20If you want a party that can challenge the ANC to actually fix SA, the current iteration of the DA isn't going to get you there.1.0×07381611

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