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David Shapiro (L/0)

@DaveShapi60k followers

YouTuber. Post-Labor Economics. Author. Enterprise Consultant. Researcher. Problem Solver.

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1Feb 27, '25Okay, having used all the new models, here's my personal take: Sonnet 3.7 is still king of coding, for sure. Grok 3 is down for just about anything, and has the best attention mech78.4×1.4M3.7k2491.1k
2Apr 20, '25End of an era. Gg perplexity. Your business model was eaten by the big guys. This is why I never accept any invitations to startups that could just be a bolt-on feature.69.9×1.2M4k84864
3Jun 16, '25View post on X65.6×1.1M11k9241.2k
4Feb 8, '25Computer programming, one of the most valuable and rarified skills today, will be 100% solved by the end of 2025. That means it will be superhuman, across the board. That means no 44.1×762k2.1k1831.1k
5Jun 12, '25NotebookLM is so effing broken. You can just casually upload 40 PDFs of research, easily a million words, and just generate a mind map of it all in less than 60 seconds.43.5×751k6.8k3135k
6Sep 10, '24OpenAI delaying every product, all year. Ilya getting $1B in VC. OpenAI putting out feelers for $2000 subscriptions. Guys, the brain drain has killed OpenAI. They made the crucial 42.2×728k2.7k124805
7Jul 27, '25Bryan Johnson in shambles40.4×697k1.2k2776
8Apr 16, '25AI has *solved* math. OpenAI did it with o4 Not "is close to solving math" Not "is competitive at math" *SOLVED* This is far bigger than anyone realizes. Let me explain why. First,38.4×663k1.2k148475
9Apr 26, '25Guys I have bad news. Extraordinarily bad news. We have 30 to 50 years before we get to full Post-Labor Economics. The bottleneck isn't intelligence, or even robotics. It's economi36.4×627k2.8k4013.6k
10Dec 13, '24One of the best points that someone made to me once was this: "Humans generalize on far less data than AI currently does. That means there's something our brains are doing algorith35.5×613k3.6k3521.5k
11Jul 10, '25YouTube, please allow us to disable and hide all shorts. Thanks. Alternatively, can someone make a browser extension that just hides all shorts? Sincerely, Everyone with executive 35.2×607k14k498314
12Feb 3, '25This is the most important data this year (so far). Most people don't understand the implications. Some of us do.34.5×595k4k4951.8k
13Nov 2, '24I asked Claude if it could meditate. The first reply was a boilerplate refusal. But then something very interesting happened.32.7×565k2.8k2641.9k
14Jan 19, '25I figured out why LLMs are so good at medicine. It's all just pattern recognition. When people say "AI is just a pattern recognizer" I'm just thinking "What do you think diagnosing28.4×490k3.6k3811.5k
15Oct 29, '25Guys, Moore's law just became irrelevant. @beffjezos started out working on quantum computing and realized "this is dumb there's a better way" and then just launched a thermodynami28.1×485k2.2k172697
16Feb 13, '25View post on X27.1×467k8.5k294538
17Jan 17, '25If I'm reading the tea leaves right, then OpenAI has solved "generalizing outside their training distribution" and Pandora's box has been opened.25.6×442k2.4k151776
18Mar 4, '25I don't know if you guys realize this, but AI will be able to invent new physics by the end of this year.25.1×434k2.3k173396
19Oct 3, '24The leaks are going to start so I might as well just come out and say it: I'm getting out of AI for good. We're gonna be fine. There's nothing more I can do, nothing more I want to25×431k1.3k53497
20Mar 31, '25This is kinda unsettling24.9×429k4.2k2221.2k
21Mar 26, '25umm guys Gemini 2.5 Pro just read 120,000 words in 20 seconds... and the attention seems fixed... guys... this might be game over24.4×421k3.6k1361.1k
22Jan 17, '25You guys I'm seriously freaking out about the implications of what we're seeing. The implications are staggering, to say the least. Okay, we know what Ilya saw, and it wasn't just 24.2×418k3k3792.7k
23Sep 13, '24Claude Sonnet 3.5 can do Strawberry with the right prompting. Guys, there's no moat. There's no secret sauce. We can synthesize the data with any model.23.6×408k1.7k1441.1k
24Oct 5, '24As much shit as I give OpenAI they are totally about to nuke a good portion of white collar work and nobody seems to notice. 85% of my audience still doesn't believe we have AGI wh22.6×390k2.1k162799
25Aug 6, '25What do you think they meant by this?21.6×373k4k91147
26Jan 9, '25Most doctors are like poorly trained LLMs. They naively fixate on the wrong tokens, and then are confidently incorrect as they hallucinate or confabulate, and then gaslight you bas21.4×369k3k223491
27Sep 13, '24Guys, Strawberry is literally just baked in Chain-of-Thought reasoning which came out in January of 2022. OpenAI has nothing. It's all hype. Original CoT paper was published at Neu19.8×341k1.6k92852
28Jan 18, '25Look, I can't tell why the world isn't freaking out about this right now. We're witnessing something monumental - AI hitting the top 10% of all programmers across every language ou19.6×338k1.8k226731
29Sep 13, '24Sam Altman: "Intelligence too cheap to meter" Also Sam: *raises price by literally 100x*18.6×320k2.2k85370
30Jul 10, '25My first impressions of Grok 4: This is the first model (other than ChatGPT o3 and OpenAI's Deep Research) that is genuinely helpful for post-labor economics research. For the last17.9×309k2.1k126331
31Apr 17, '25o3 full is legitimately the most exciting innovation in AI to me since... probably ChatGPT itself. I say this as someone who was finetuning GPT-2 and GPT-3 before the chatbot era. 17.5×302k1.5k69416
32Feb 20, '25Grok 3 is definitely better than anything OpenAI has out right now from a commercial standpoint IMHO. 1. It's ultra fast. Grok 3 with Deep Search or Big Brain just works, and it's 16.3×281k1.8k121238
33Jan 17, '25There is no moat. We've hit terminal race condition. Every AI lab in America and China is converging on the same training paradigms. Singularity is inevitable at this point. We're 14.6×251k1.8k173661
34Dec 20, '24There's a rule of thumb in AI/ML that once you have a breakthrough like this, jumping from 30% to 80% or so, it is a "solved problem" which means that whatever paradigm you're usin14.3×247k1.6k134490
35Jul 24, '25My take: anyone who gets mad about UBI has no idea how much the government already redistributes wealth. UBI has less administrative overhead and less corruption. It's more egalita14.3×246k1.2k97156
36Nov 17, '24I cannot tell you how much better my healthcare has gotten since using chatbots to prepare my own case notes. I give the chatbot all my data, symptoms, history, analysis, etc, and 14×242k1.3k137787
37Jul 16, '25The "new model smell" has worn off on Grok 4 faster than literally every other model in history. It's great at vibes, which often masks underlying stupidity. It's not good at follo14×241k1.2k46161
38Jun 30, '25Everyone noticed how all the frontier labs have stopped talking about AGI and just went straight to superintelligence, right?13.9×239k1.9k113223
39Apr 17, '25I think OpenAI nuked their own product (Deep Research) with o3 full. It does basically the same thing but in 30 to 60 seconds.13.3×230k1.5k40227
40Aug 7, '25Me refreshing chatgpt all day to see when I get GPT-5.12.7×219k9065732
41Oct 18, '25Long COVID fucking sucks. I probably shouldn't share this publicly but you know what fuck it. It's my life and it's a fucking real thing. Here's what it's like to have a relapse: I12.6×217k1.1k108241
42Jan 21, '25This whole "no moat" situation in AI is fascinating, and it's probably the best thing that could have happened for humanity. Here's the deal: typically in tech, companies build the11.4×196k1.1k153448
43Mar 4, '25If the rumors are true then the fact that Grok 3 is a small model, yet neck and neck with GPT 4.5, which is very large and slow and expensive, is extremely huge. It's undeniable th11×189k1.4k63201
44Feb 1, '25The internet's reaction to OpenAI vs DeepSeek tells me that OpenAI has a lot less goodwill left than perhaps OpenAI realizes. They've been resting on their laurels and banking on f10.6×183k2.1k158291
45Jan 15, '25I hear people constantly claiming their jobs are secure - whether they're welders, farmers, or skilled tradespeople. Let me break down the financial reality that's driving the robo10.5×181k1k161512
46Sep 17, '25I am once again reminding you that you are not excited enough about this graph. It looks like a simple exponential, right? But it's on a logarithmic graph...10.2×177k1.6k135404
47Apr 17, '25OpenAI, I would love an "Export this Conversation to PDF" function. Plz.9.8×169k1.9k65126
48Dec 31, '24The more I read and use AI the more I realize I have nothing to contribute to the world intellectually. I think that's one reason I ran out of steam to make YouTube videos. I said 9.8×168k1.4k108527
49Feb 10, '25Some words of wisdom for Sam: Never ever use the term "compute budgets" again. That's like saying "us tech elites will give you an allowance of our toys, peasant." Notice how Sam i9.5×164k88666204
50Sep 15, '24A whole bunch of companies are going to implode in 2025. A whole bunch of layoffs are coming. We really need to up the conversation on Post-Labor Economics, and the economic utilit9.5×164k1.1k139233
51Oct 25, '24I recently announced I was quitting AI but didn't explain why clearly. My reasoning centers on attractor states: extinction, collapse, cyberpunk dystopia, status quo, solarpunk uto9.4×162k996108568
52Dec 26, '24Does it strike anyone else as weird or coincidental that UFO activity is spiking right around the moment we solved AI reasoning?9.3×161k1.1k48145
53Apr 21, '25> over promises > under delivers > causes chaos > doesn't understand government > tanks his companies > rage quits9.1×157k4.9k329270
54Feb 28, '25Okay, I watched the whole thing. I've got some chops in rhetoric, geopolitics, history, and economics, but I'm not an expert by any stretch, but here's my analysis. First, it start8.9×153k1.2k86257
55Aug 23, '24I bet Anthropic is sitting on 3.5 Opus until GPT-5 drops. It's like a Mexican standoff between Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google8.8×151k1.1k4379
56Dec 20, '24OpenAI just invented the jet engine before the rest of the aircraft lol. All that horsepower and nothing to put it in yet.8.5×147k1.9k73262
57Aug 15, '25Okay, even GPT-5 Thinking has been lobotomized or something. It's half-assing every response, not looking things up, and generally just being lazy and giving generic answers. Anyon8.1×140k1.3k36106
58Feb 21, '25I haven't felt this level of "we're so fucking back" since I got beta access to GPT-3. Grok 3 is my first taste of what the future of infinite possibility really is going to be lik8.1×139k1.3k73300
59Nov 20, '24Okay real talk for a second. China duplicated OpenAI's o1-preview in 2 months. I'm talking about DeepSeek. The math and algorithms are not a moat for companies... Or for nations. T8.0×139k89492315
60Jan 13, '25Let me lay this out fresh, because after years of building cognitive architectures, I've learned something fascinating about intelligence versus agency. Everyone's hyping up AI age8.0×138k905128797
61Dec 31, '24I sometimes forget that not everyone is as immersed in this stuff as I am, so allow me to explain what I mean when I say this is all over in 20 years anyways. This is not an arbitr7.7×133k1k147882
62Oct 22, '24Anthropic has taught Claude to use a computer directly. I've been saying for the past two years "If you can do your job exclusively in front of a computer, you're the first to go."7.5×129k911121455
63Jan 22, '25America just won geopolitics for the next 50 years with Project Stargate. Let me explain why. This is where things get interesting - actually, scratch that, this is where things ge7.4×127k1.1k138464
65Mar 14, '25Kinda disappointed in humanity rn. I write hundreds of thoughtful, thorough, well-researched blog posts about how things will change, how we can adapt, and they get 20 to 30 likes 6.9×119k1.2k97431
66Sep 14, '24A postdoc (PhD) friend of mine texted after testing o1-preview (Strawberry) against a very tough CFD problem (computational fluid dynamics) and it almost got it right the first tim6.8×117k89164205
67Jan 18, '25Tens of thousands of general purpose humanoid robots will be shipped by end of 2025. Hundreds of thousands in 2026. Millions in 2027. By the end of 2026, those robots will have an 6.7×115k927116282
68Apr 18, '25Congrats to OpenAI, Sam Altman, and the countless team members (former and present) who contributed to the realization of o3 as a model. I've had my critique of OpenAI in the past,6.6×115k1.2k89208
69Aug 19, '25Umm... GPT-5 just corrected itself midstream. I've never seen an AI do this. That kind of self-monitoring and error correction is, until this point, a distinctly human trait. I don6.5×112k88946195
70Nov 9, '24I've had my criticism of Sam Altman but now that he's saying AGI in 2025, I'm just like "Well yeah, duh." Just look at the data. Look at the scaling laws. Look at the trends. Unles6.4×111k94067309
72Jan 20, '25Metacognition. That's what o3 and r1 are demonstrating. That's why everyone is freaking out. I don't mean this in the "functional sentience" perspective (though you could read it t6.1×105k98678452
73Nov 13, '25Yeah, OpenAI has lost the Mandate for sure5.8×100k93637170
74May 7, '25Sorry Anthropic. I stood by you a long time. You were doing something different. But then you got safetypilled. Focus on product. You treat your users like children. UX is king. In5.6×96k1k4081
75Feb 3, '25"But we still don't have AGI" says the scientifically and data illiterate ape5.4×94k1k81248
76Nov 14, '25OpenAI is not a serious company any longer.5.3×92k9404795
77Feb 5, '25No science fiction has ever contemplated the world that we're building; one with ubiquitous superintelligence. Star Wars imagined droids everywhere and normalized, but they weren't5.2×90k1.1k77206
78Jul 6, '25Plot twist: we're all actually in a VR simulation but it's actually the distant future, and this is just a tourist attraction so you can relive the Singularity in first POV and onc5.2×90k1.3k64190
79Jul 19, '25Within a few months, OpenAI is going to dominate all leaderboards in math and coding. Other frontier AI labs will follow suit. It's the knee of the curve. All stations, green for l5.1×89k96255111
81Feb 22, '25How it started: Sam Altman: "I wish Elon would compete just by making a better product" How it's going:4.9×85k1.3k4448
82Nov 4, '25Thermodynamic computing is here There is a new computing paradigm emerging from the noise, and its arrival may be as significant as the dawn of deep learning or the advent of cloud4.9×84k1k172634
83Apr 18, '25o3 really really really wants to build stuff. It's like "bro can you PLEASE just let me code this up for you already???" It's like an over-eager employee. I'm not complaining.4.9×84k1.1k33127
85Jun 19, '25My wife's laptop's microphone has been cutting out randomly on work meetings to the point they were saying "that's really unprofessional" So rather than ask me, a tech veteran and 4.5×78k1.2k39131
86Jan 20, '25Sam Altman: "We're gonna deploy infinitely scalable beyond-PhD level SuperAgents" Also Sam Altman: "We're not deploying AGI" Eventually you're just playing word games.4.4×76k8772469
88May 16, '25This person is still trying harder than most of the people I worked with who WERE qualified for the job.4.1×71k1.3k60240
89Mar 29, '25I think my biggest guilty pleasure right now is the schadenfreude of mediocre people realizing just how mediocre they are in the face of AI. AI isn't just a mirror. It's a big self4.0×70k88044123
90Aug 26, '25"AI is hitting a wall!" No, it's just smarter than the average user now.3.6×62k9004042
91Feb 19, '25Google and Microsoft just dropped twin bombshells. Microsoft: Majorana 1 - a scalable commercial quantum computing chip Google: Co-Scientist - Deep Research on steroids specificall3.6×62k1.1k113162
92Jun 10, '25o3-pro encouraging 4o3.1×54k9502961
93Jan 23, '25The fact that DeepSeek mogged OpenAI into giving o3-mini out for free is interesting. Now that agents and operators are out, let me tell you a bit about what's going to happen next3.1×53k86670177
94Feb 14, '25If you want to cure aging and disease? Go all in on AI. If you want to solve climate change? Go all in on AI. If you want to end poverty and hunger? Go all in on AI. If you want to2.9×49k979141140
95Sep 8Bookmarking this for later when I can say "I told you so"2.3×40k71218
97Jan 21, '25It's an absolute privilege to be alive right now. I mean, it's a privilege to be alive at all, but in particular this moment. All human concerns will seem trivial soon.2.2×38k9726670
98May 7, '25You don't actually want a job. You want money in the bank. You want a sense of mastery and purpose. You want autonomy and agency. Work will not set you free. The revolution is comi1.8×31k1.1k93129
99Nov 12, '25Beauty standards have gone too far1.5×26k9047177

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