XOutlier
Download .zipAdd to Chrome

Bob Elliott

@BobEUnlimited307k followers

CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFGM, $HFEQ, $HFMF, $HFND | Fmr @Bridgewater IC | One of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments not investment advice

Open on X
Top outlier
50.1×
Best organic post
Peak views
2.2M
Single post
Bookmarks
33k
Across 98 organic posts
Last scan
Oct 17
Community cache
Posts 98 posts
#DatePost↓ OutlierViewsLikesRepostsBookmarks
1Mar 9, '23Years ago I led research on the GFC and was way out front suggesting trillions in losses, so I know a little something about crummy banks. Getting panicked calls about the risk of 50.1×2.2M2k356738
2Mar 11, '23Fed/FDIC decisions on SVB determine whether they risk a bank run trillions of dollars in size. 1/3 of US deposits are in small banks and ~50% are uninsured. Haircutting SVB deposit49.3×2.2M2.4k633558
3Mar 10, '23The US banking system is built on the expectation that equity and bond holders accept the bank economic risk and depositors, particularly the small folks, do not. While that is not45×2M2.8k4631.3k
4Mar 11, '23Hearing from some insiders: -big banks actively working on buying svb business -fdic considering insurance / liquidity covering up to 95pct of uninsured depositors to acquirer -Mon35.2×1.6M2.8k408255
5Mar 13, '23Pricing switched from hikes to cuts in 72hrs, signaling small bank stress is enough to derail the macro strength. JP must be considering lessons of '98 right now when a financial p35.2×1.6M1.6k251463
6Apr 24, '25There are increasing signs that the Embargo by the new admin is starting to have real economic consequences. Container bookings have collapsed, ports are seeing reduced activity, t29.6×1.3M11k1.9k1.3k
7Oct 29, '24The selloff in US bonds has sparked a global dump of developed world sovereign debt. Since US yields started rising after the Fed meeting in Sept, global bond yields are higher, wh23.1×1M5k6752k
8Dec 31, '22While it may be difficult to predict the public markets in '23, it is pretty easy to figure out that Venture Funds are on track to lose $1 trillion in value from peak. The vast maj21.7×974k1.2k213316
9Jul 12, '24Given the nature of this platform, it is hard to know what kind of track record folks have in making major macro calls. Here's a look at my track record over the last few years. Th21.7×973k85985372
10Oct 9, '23Most investment portfolios are totally unprepared for war. In times of conflict inflation rises, gold and commodities outperform, while stocks, bonds, and cash underperform. A typi21×942k1.8k318958
11Mar 10, '23The FDIC has taken SVB in receivership and will manage its resolution. This has happened hundreds of times over the last decades and there is a well tested game plan as I mentioned20.9×938k1.7k254341
12Jan 2, '23Many buying bonds to get ahead of the coming recession in '23. But if you look through time, the start of Fed easing is a better timing indicator to buy bonds. In inflationary cycl19.5×875k1.2k227458
13May 4, '23Regional bank 'crisis' shifting from deposit runs driving equity declines to speculators engineering equity declines to increase the risk of deposit runs. This new phase divorced f19.4×871k1.3k234323
14Apr 24, '25Feels eerily similar to May 2008.16.2×727k2.8k149346
15Apr 19, '25It seems @SecScottBessent’s “quick face-saving deals” strategy isn’t working even with close allies who appear unwilling to fulfill their roles in the Kabuki theatre.16×719k4k540372
16Jul 16, '23It's hard to know where any economy is going. But if you want to start predicting where the macro economy will go in the next 3-6m, here are the 13 key indicators to track that wil15×671k1.4k2902.2k
17Jul 25, '23What is the likelihood 2024 will have 12% earnings growth *and* 5 rate cuts? That is what is currently implied by the short-rate and stock market. Soft landing both 100% priced in 14.7×661k932160374
18Oct 10, '23Typical macro cycle turns are slow to start, but they all end in recession. The current modest rise in unemployment is about median for a year in since YC inversion compared to pos14.7×659k1.6k364456
19Mar 25, '24One of the most consequential shifts in global markets over the next decade would be a re-pricing of neutral rate expectations. For nearly 15 years, most investors and central bank13.3×598k908147346
20Oct 1, '24An aggressive global easing is here without a global slowdown or any stress in asset markets. Such Over Easy policy has been pursued in the past by individual countries, but has ne13.3×596k2.1k3211.1k
21Jan 15, '24Pretty incredible to see covid-period like deficits being run at a time when unemployment is at secular lows and the economy is growing above potential. In the short-term this help13.3×595k1.1k208206
22Oct 19, '23With the most recent leg down, this US bond selloff is on par with the largest ever in history. As shown next, it's also in line the largest falls for major countries that didn't l13×584k1.2k268327
23Sep 18, '24This is not the 2008 cycle. Those drawing conclusions from '08 about the need to cut fast today to avoid the risk of a precipitous drop in growth ahead are missing the big picture.12.8×574k2.6k295927
24Aug 14, '23The biggest unpriced duration supply risk is that the PBOC will need to intervene to support the CNY. CNY at 15 year lows means not too much longer before the PBOC mounts a more ag12.4×558k1.1k224378
25Jun 13, '23Cut through the noise. Core inflation has been stable at 5% annualized over the last 6 months. That is far too high given the Fed’s mandate.12.3×551k1.2k23988
26Mar 13, '23One of the most important GFC lessons was that it is better to go big and move swiftly in order to prevent a bank problem from metastasizing. JP & JY clearly drew on that exper11.8×530k895132148
27Aug 24, '23My guess is today will mark the top in the ‘no landing’ scenario narrative. Market based tightening with much more duration supply coming. Tighter for longer Fed. And cyclical sect11.8×528k1.3k219209
28Mar 21, '23A Fed pause/cut is not supported by the macro data, and also not supported by market signaling. - Stocks are up during this 'crisis,' and IG spreads have risen a mere 30bps. - Comp10.5×473k959126124
29Jan 30, '24How is it possible that nominal GDP grew 6% in 2023 when M2 was flat, bank balance sheets were flat, and borrowing my nonfinancial sectors was pretty stable? Velocity.10×449k863149400
30Jul 8, '24US stocks experiencing a surge in earnings *expectations* not actual earnings. Investors are set up for disappointment ahead. Thread.9.7×434k1.2k110561
31Apr 22, '25Trump's comments tonight make clear @SecScottBessent tipped a select group folks about the admin's planned policy shift toward China at a JP Morgan event last night. Seems Bessent 8.8×394k3.4k436274
32Mar 2, '23The last time that core inflation was at today's levels and the unemployment rate was at multi-decade lows, the 10-year bond yield was running at 8-9%.8.7×392k83911256
33Mar 28, '25There are increasing signs the new admin is committed to cutting 25-35% of the federal workforce, totaling as much as 800k job losses ahead. These cuts would add 50bps to the unemp8.4×379k2.1k252494
34Feb 5, '25While there is a lot of focus on a trade war, the real risk is a capital war. Foreign central banks selling their 3.5tln in treasury bonds could wreck US markets and economy. And i8.3×370k1k150492
35Feb 24, '25Economic data is coming in weaker than expected even before the growth negative fiscal policies from the new admin start to show up in the stats. And for the first time we are star8.2×367k2k188642
36Mar 26, '24The no-landing scenario is now consensus. Growth expectations are now 2.2% for '24 *and* inflation expectations are near 3%. All the while, the Fed is expected to cut 3 times this 7.9×355k911161330
37May 19, '25Fund managers are the most underweight equities in years.7.9×353k1.4k189261
38Aug 25, '23It takes a combo of dynamics to bring recession, many of which will likely come together in the next 6m or so. 1) late cycle 2) weakening of cyclical sectors 3) monetary, fiscal an7.7×347k904182459
39Apr 10, '25Sell everything and buy gold.7.5×335k1.4k122156
40Mar 4, '25Tariffs implemented today are just the start of suite of planned levies that would bring US tariffs to above the Smoot-Hawley days in just a few weeks. Even with modest retaliation7.4×331k1.9k252523
41May 9, '25It increasingly looks like the best case scenario on tariffs will be roughly the 60% China and 10% all others, amounting to a roughly 15% hike in overall tariff rates. While there 7.3×327k1.5k171402
42Sep 6, '23Bunch of data points suggest a substantial weakening in consumer spending in August. If the consumer is actually fading, very hard for equities to hold these levels. Morgan Stanley7.2×322k1k186180
43Apr 7, '25There are no signs the new administration is willing to scale back their tariff efforts. Typically a near immediate 20% decline in equity markets would cause policymakers to rethin7.1×319k1.6k134345
44Mar 25, '24Private credit funds are lying to their investors about the valuations of the underlying assets, often claiming marks much higher than in traded public markets. Most investors will7.1×318k836176347
45Dec 10, '23This is disappointing. It is normal for people to have differences of opinion, but these types of unfounded personal attacks are totally unprofessional and stifle what could have b7.0×315k8442535
46Apr 5, '25Bear markets don't bottom with PEs at 19x and 12m forward earnings still at all-time highs.7.0×313k85483216
47Oct 2, '23Markets are all-in on a soft landing, pricing: - 25% earnings growth thru '25 - 20% fall in oil prices by '25 - 2.2% inflation forever - Just 3 fed cuts in 2H24 And to generate any6.8×306k1k147293
48Aug 28, '24Australia a case study in a central bank that has been behind the curve tackling their inflation problem. While it has come down from peak it's now stuck at 3-4%, led by a hot econ6.8×304k882105348
49May 12, '25While all eyes are on tariff negotiations, House '26 budget plans solidified last week suggest a Republican commitment to blow out the deficit in coming years. The Ways and Means b6.8×303k1.4k208415
50Dec 15, '24The global economy is getting the biggest coordinated easing since the GFC at a time when macro conditions look nothing like the GFC.6.7×300k1.2k143167
51Feb 28, '24If bitcoin is going parabolic, maybe money isn't all that tight right now.6.6×295k1.5k8541
52Feb 1, '25Short interest is dead.6.4×285k866132203
53Apr 16, '25It doesn't take a PhD to understand tariff impacts: - 10% tariffs are mostly absorbed by foreign producers. - 50% tariffs are mostly paid for by domestic consumers. - 245% tariffs 6.3×284k4.5k507289
54Oct 11, '25Dollar weakening during the sharp stock selloff is an underappreciated dynamic of yesterday's market action.6.3×284k9139491
55Jan 29, '25Uber driver started pitching me on $NVDA this morning after learning I work in finance. Bought 100 shares last week and is certain it’ll double in the next year despite the recent 6.2×280k1.6k6492
56Oct 28, '24I don’t normally read too much into a single day’s market action, but bonds falling on a day when oil was down 5pct is a pretty bad sign for the long-end.6.1×273k1.4k91168
57May 19, '25The run on developed world money continues. While many are focused on the Moody's downgrade as a catalyst pushing yields higher, it is far from just a US dynamic. Long-term bond yi5.5×247k1.1k157351
58Sep 8, '23The China/US decoupling is gaining steam. A good reflection of that dynamic is that Chinese share of US imports is on track to fall in half within a year. The decoupling is rewriti5.4×243k1.1k315128
59Mar 30, '25There is too much debate on whether the tariffs will be inflationary and not enough focus on tariffs being unambiguously bad for real growth over a timeframe markets care about.5.3×238k1.4k16387
60Nov 25, '24Tons of press saying Buffet's recent cash surge is a signal to be followed. It's not. His cyclical market timing alpha is negative over the last 30 years. Another example that for 5.2×235k97990331
61Apr 9, '25Looks like time to start selling the rip. Even with this relaxation of tariffs, the combo of CHN + across the board 10% + sectoral tariffs is still a big drag ahead. Unless you thi5.2×234k1.3k102184
62Apr 23, '25The US built up an unsustainable reliance on foreign capital over the last few decades and as that flow now reverses, US assets will inevitably reprice lower. While many say this i5.1×228k1.1k151775
63Apr 5, '25Real yields are pricing in something much closer to a growth boom than a recession.5.0×222k1.2k116291
64Jun 28, '25The Housing Market Is Starting to Crack For years the housing market has almost levitated despite drags from high rates and high prices thanks to limited supply and other assets fi4.9×221k1.2k118404
65Mar 28, '24Today's mkt cap concentration in the top 10% largest US stocks has only occurred one other time in history in 1929...4.9×220k851202210
66Apr 8, '25While the recent moves have been dramatic, equity markets are still far from pricing in a recession. Thread.4.9×219k1.1k105329
67Nov 18, '24The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street in one chart.4.7×210k892177196
68Feb 27, '25The post election crypto euphoria is collapsing. Many have completed a full round trip and even BTC is down 20% from highs. While there are idiosyncratic elements, if past cycles a4.3×195k1k86244
69Mar 1, '25The government cuts being pushed through by the new administration will create a fiscal tightening far more extreme than what anyone has seen in their lifetimes.4.3×195k1.1k142275
70Oct 10, '23Buying stocks at these elevated prices on expectations of future Fed easing is a fools errand. The type of conditions that would cause the Fed to ease would also lead earnings to s4.2×188k1k9670
71Dec 18, '24If Fartcoin is going parabolic, maybe monetary policy is far from “very restrictive.”4.1×186k8506827
72Aug 31, '25It's just not credible for the Fed to claim to have a 2% inflation target when it's been 53 months above target and moving higher & they shift to further easing.4.1×183k1.4k165107
73Mar 27, '25If the new admin follows through on its tariff ambitions, the policy mix and likely trade partner retaliation will drive the US economy into recession. Financial markets hardly ref4.0×179k978127240
74Aug 5, '24What's happening now is not because of a Fed error. It's driven by the popping of a bubble and its knock on impacts on other positions. If anything it suggests the error was the Fe3.9×176k1.3k12897
75Oct 30, '24When everything is already going up (other than bonds), adding further monetary and fiscal easing to the mix will only serve to further inflate the financial asset bubble. Thread.3.8×172k1k93277
76Mar 10, '25Wrecking the economy is certainly one approach to create disinflation...3.8×172k1.8k9357
77May 4, '25While the stock market is priced like the last month was just a fever dream, the reality is the current tariffs are still 20pts higher than where they were a month ago, there is an3.7×164k1.1k121135
78May 26, '25Sure the bots are annoying and the tech kinda sucks, but for me it’s the extreme politicization of even the most benign macro posts and the constant trolling about past wrong posit3.7×164k1k2122
79Aug 22, '25Powell without the courage to stand against political pressure. Someone needs to tell the FOMC the "commitment" to a 2% mandate lacks any credibility when inflation has been above 3.6×161k1.1k159127
80Apr 28, '25Chinese policymakers continue to take a tough stance on extreme US tariffs. Refusing to negotiate, official accounts openly mocking the US, and today publishing a revisit of Mao's 3.5×158k1.3k169178
81Nov 14, '24Sure, the Fed is data driven. It’s driven to find data that supports its policy bias at any point in time.3.5×155k1.2k12854
82Dec 8, '24Ok, just one more for fun. Cause its the weekend. h/t @MisterSpread3.4×154k9766374
83Jan 19, '25Stocks and Bonds get more positively correlated as yields move toward 5%.3.4×151k1.1k231591
84Jan 9, '25The global rise in bond yields is a significant market-based tightening at a time when most see further easing needed instead. Equities have so far looked immune to these rate rise3.1×137k85286284
85Jul 7, '25TACO is consensus and already fully priced in at these levels. Trouble is without the pain of falling markets he wont chicken out.3.0×135k1.1k8055
86Apr 21, '25Another weekend of dashed hopes for constructive policy shifts from the admin leading to a Monday where the current policy Wrecking Ball is taking aim at global markets. Gold surgi3.0×134k940116139
87Mar 7, '25Stocks going down with no fall in bond yields is a bad combination for the real economy.3.0×132k1.3k9889
88Nov 7, '24Over the next 12-18m the US will likely get: 1) 100bps more Fed cuts 2) Pro-growth fiscal policy from Trump Setting up significant stimulation into an economy already running hot a2.9×128k85276156
89Apr 1, '25Excited to announce my new role representing Canada in it's tariff conflict with the US. As a native Detroiter, I have a deep appreciation of the economic integration with our Onta2.8×127k8963338
91Mar 12, '24Elliott fam so happy to bring home our newest member, baby C. Petunia (our golden retriever) is most excited, though still figuring out what kinda of dog it is. She’ll be having fu2.4×109k1.6k91
92Apr 26, '25The market pricing at this point has simply unwound some post-election euphoria, but has priced in no chance of real economy weakness ahead. I'll take the under.2.4×106k91365122
93Jan 29, '25If you don't hate part of your portfolio, you aren't diversified enough.1.9×87k1k83106
96Dec 10, '22Don't focus on the nuances of the CPI report. Its much more valuable / less noisy to focus on incomes. That's because in any economy nominal income vs. output determines the struct1.7×01.2k206347
97Nov 11, '22The market action today reflected the fact that there is far too much liquidity still in the system than desirable. Bear market rallies typically come after periods of declines and1.7×01.4k186169
98Nov 14, '22I don’t trade crypto and have no inside knowledge. I have traded currency markets for decades, including those that are heavily managed by central banks. Free markets are stochasti1.6×01.4k149176
99Nov 22, '22One of the biggest dynamics in '23 will be the recognition that privately held, illiquid assets are worth nothing close to their current marks. VC, PE, CRE, PC are all marked aroun1.5×01.4k156116
100Oct 11, '22Stocks are down 25% on the year. But once you take into consideration the rise in discount rates and the impact of the dollar on earnings, the stock market implies higher earnings 1.2×0905130205
101Sep 28, '22BoE move today is being pointed at to imply both a put and a pivot. That's not a good interpretation. The BoE provided short-term liquidity to a distressed market to ensure solvent1.1×093014888

Scan another creator

@
@karpathy@levelsio@paulg@naval@marclou@illyism

Run this on any account.

XOutlier builds this table for every public profile you open on x.com, with live data and every post, not just the top 50.

Add to Chrome Download .zip