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PlanB

@100trillionUSD2.2M followers

All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉

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#DatePost↓ OutlierViewsLikesRepostsBookmarks
1Sep 24, '24Just a scenario: - Oct: classic pump month. BTC 70k - Nov: Trump wins election, ends democrats Biden/Harris/Warren/Gensler war on crypto. BTC 100k - Dec: massive ETF inflow. BTC 1512.9×5.9M17k3.5k6.9k
2Apr 18, '25So it begins6.8×3.1M12k1.3k739
3Mar 1, '24🔴RED DOT !! Accumulation phase has ended: no more easy buying opportunities in orderly and slowly increasing markets. Bull market has started. If history is any guide, we will see5.8×2.6M27k5.8k3k
4Oct 1, '21Aug>47k✅ Sep>43k✅ Next targets: Oct>63k, Nov>98k, Dec>135k🚀5.0×049k10k757
5Dec 4, '21For context, 2017 bull market4.3×045k7.9k617
6Jun 20, '21Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk's energy FUD and China's mining crack down. There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. M3.8×030k7.7k2.5k
7Nov 1, '21Aug $47K✅ Sep $43K✅ Oct $61K new monthly close ATH!✅ Ok ok, 3% rounding error .. close enough for me Next targets: Nov>$98K, Dec>$135K🚀3.6×038k6.4k382
8Nov 8, '21#Bitcoin3.6×041k5.7k245
9Oct 19, '21Countdown to new ATH🚀2.9×032k5.5k204
10Feb 15, '23#Bitcoin bull market .. so it begins2.9×1.3M13k1.8k134
11Nov 5, '21Are you ready for +$10K daily candles?2.8×032k3.6k130
12Nov 25, '21Floor model $98K Nov close will probably be a first miss (after nailing Aug, Sep, Oct). S2F model not affected and indeed on track towards $100K.2.7×029k3.5k136
13Oct 27, '21Classic - step 1: liquidate all leveraged longs - step 2: 🚀2.6×028k5k293
14Dec 6, '21#Bitcoin status2.6×030k3.7k90
15Oct 19, '21$63K✅2.6×029k4k251
16Oct 1, '21#Bitcoin Sept closing price $43,834 .. like clockwork2.5×028k4k173
17Dec 6, '21#Bitcoin2.5×030k2.9k43
18Dec 10, '21I don't think $69K was the top for this halving cycle. If $69K were the top, than a typical bear market -80% drawdown would bring the bottom to $14K .. below 2017 ATH ($20K) and be2.3×025k3.6k264
19Jan 21, '22Periodic reminder2.3×025k4.3k200
20Jan 24, '22Next level candle painting2.3×026k3.4k109
21Oct 17, '21Are you ready?2.3×026k4.2k185
22Nov 2, '21Like clockwork2.2×026k3.5k202
23Oct 2, '21On-chain analyses finished tonight: IMO we are midway, no sign of weakness (red) yet. Note color overlay is not months to halving but an on-chain signal. My guess: this 2nd leg of 2.1×022k4.2k458
24Dec 31, '21Happy New Year! 2021: #Bitcoin +60% Real Estate +35% Stocks +27% Bonds -2% Gold -4%2.1×023k3.7k120
25Feb 25, '25Periodic reminder. 2016-2017 bull market (which current bull market mimics) had multiple -30% dips on the way up. Have to get rid of the tourists.2.1×955k13k1.9k1k
26Jun 5, '24#Bitcoin2.1×952k13k2.2k424
27Nov 10, '24Bitcoin is entering the vertical part of the S-curve (and S2F-curve) ... probably nothing.2.0×928k16k2.2k672
28Nov 8, '21As you know S2F model predicts $100K average for this halving period (and based on floor model we reach $100K this yr). But S2FX model predicts $288K average this cycle (we need so2.0×022k3.6k267
29Nov 5, '21Some people think Nov close $98K is too big a jump. It is +60% from current level. Yes that is a big jump. But #bitcoin did this many times before: May 2019 +62% Aug 2017 +66% May 1.9×021k3.2k177
30Oct 25, '21🔴1.9×021k3.1k195
31Dec 1, '21$98K❌ Floor model first miss (after nailing Aug,Sep,Oct). No model is perfect, but this is a big miss and the first in 10y! Outlier/black swan? I will give Floor model 1 more month1.8×021k2.4k177
32Nov 11, '21As you know S2F model predicts ~$100K average this halving cycle (white line). I dumbed that down to "$100K Dec 2021 close" because to make $100K average, mid-cycle we should be ab1.8×021k3k219
33Dec 4, '21On days like this I switch off the computers and go for a long run.1.8×022k1.4k55
34Oct 24, '21When #bitcoin is in all time high mode (color turns red), it usually stays in ATH mode (red) for a couple of months1.8×020k3.4k284
35Jun 4, '24Bitcoin $70,000 .. so it begins1.8×824k11k1.7k334
36Oct 5, '21🔥1,000,000 followers, thank you all! This has been a wild ride: 3 years, 3 articles, 30 interviews. So much energy and great people in this space. Honored to be part of this epic 1.8×024k1.2k46
37Dec 5, '21#bitcoin realized cap still increasing after March $58.8K close .. you can not keep the ball under water forever ..1.8×021k2.7k118
38Jan 12, '22The bounce will be epic1.8×020k2.6k84
39Dec 18, '21Bitcoin needs a small miracle for a 100K Christmas. Will I ditch S2F model if this does not happen? Nah, I actually like being at the lower bands. In fact I published the model at 1.7×019k2.5k192
40Jul 22, '24Are you ready?1.7×795k16k2.3k544
41Oct 26, '21#bitcoin bull market, 2nd leg has started1.7×018k3.1k175
42Oct 29, '21Imagine selling BTC now🤣1.7×019k2.4k127
43Nov 7, '21#bitcoin long term momentum is rising fast1.6×019k2.6k101
44Jan 27, '25Last dump before the pump?1.6×737k12k80499
45Jul 26, '24This is where the fun begins1.6×735k12k1.9k559
46Dec 12, '21$50K-60K #bitcoin since March, patience is key1.6×018k2.2k107
47Dec 25, '21Imagine thinking a model that has stayed within 1 standard deviation band for 3yrs has failed. IMO we are in the exact same spot as March 2019 when I published S2F model: at the lo1.5×017k2.1k253
48Jan 20, '25So it begins1.5×691k12k1.5k479
49Apr 17, '22#bitcoin1.5×017k2k168
50Oct 9, '21#bitcoin is $55K now .. only +15% to $63K🚀1.5×017k2.4k133
51Feb 8, '21BREAKING ... I quit my job (PlanA) and start focusing on #bitcoin (PlanB) full time as of March 1st! 😎1.4×017k1k59
52Mar 18, '22#Bitcoin1.4×016k2k153
53Nov 10, '21Leveraged longs liquidated .. and go!1.3×016k1.7k101
54Nov 17, '21To clarify: 98K Nov prediction is NOT based on S2F model but on my floor model. As I said before (in tweets and latest podcasts), I use 3 models: 1) S2F 2) Floor model 3) On-chain 1.3×013k1.9k183
55Nov 11, '21Price discovery on markets sometimes reminds me of the prisoner's dilemma. If everybody today decides not to sell #bitcoin under $100K, the price would rise over $100K today. Howev1.3×016k1.7k71
56Oct 5, '21#bitcoin is $50K now .. only +26% to $63K1.3×015k2.1k107
57Sep 1, '21#Bitcoin August closing price $47,156 .. like clockwork1.3×014k2.3k149
58Nov 9, '21Like clockwork1.3×014k2k219
59Nov 9, '21I am #bitcoin only! Pls do NOT reply/comment with info on other coins/tokens; I consider that noise. I block people who do that. Pls do NOT ask me to do S2F on other coins; there i1.2×016k83447
60Dec 19, '21Money printing (QE, debasement) is the only reason why governments can mandate drugs, close businesses, fire doctors and nurses, spinn main stream media, enforce lockdowns, destroy1.2×013k2.4k122
61Oct 18, '21Back in blue1.2×014k2k203
62Jun 15, '21Just to confirm: both my S2F(X) model and on-chain signal point towards a second run of this bull market🚀1.2×013k2.4k166
63Jul 19, '21Bounce, or break, that is the question1.2×013k1.7k177
64Dec 29, '21I use models to protect myself from emotions. Right now most people, incl myself, fear further decline of btc price and want to sell. But S2F model shows btc is at the low end of 51.2×012k1.9k254
65Mar 22, '19My first Medium article! Combining all my tweets about modeling bitcoin's value with stock-to-flow, the halving, power laws, fractals and questions & answers to one logical sto1.2×09.7k2.5k1.1k
66Oct 21, '21#bitcoin looking strong: RSI>70 and in ATH mode (red)1.2×014k1.8k159
67Oct 15, '21I guess this classic is appropriate 🚀1.2×012k2.2k261
68Sep 29, '21What will trigger the next leg of the #bitcoin bull market? - ETF approval (SEC) - Nation adoption (next El Salvador) - LN/Strike surprise (Jack Mallers) - Apple/Amazon/Google/MS a1.1×012k1.9k158
69Jan 12, '22Stay strong! 💪1.1×012k1.8k74
70Oct 14, '21I like where this is going😎1.1×013k1.8k80
71Sep 7, '21✅43k1.1×014k1.1k41
72Nov 3, '21Relative Strength Index 72 .. #bitcoin looking strong1.1×013k1.6k94
73May 11, '22Reason why you are not buying BTC below 30k now, is the same reason why you did not buy BTC at 4k during Mar2020 covid bottom, or 3k during Dec2018 bear market bottom: FEAR. Fear t1.1×012k1.9k122
74Jun 14, '22On days like this I switch off the monitors and go for a run. Yes I hodled from 69K to 22K, did not sell a sat, because I thought BTC would go to 100K. But no reason to stare at sc1.1×013k1.1k90
75Sep 13, '21Let's skip September and go straight to October😎1.1×012k1.8k174
76May 8, '25Bitcoin $100,000 ... you know what's next🚀1.1×500k12k1.5k333
77Jan 9, '22What if ...1.1×012k1.4k175
78Oct 29, '21In normal markets RSI<30 means buy and RSI>70 sell. In #bitcoin RSI hardly ever goes below 45 and RSI can go as high as 95, because BTC has a continuous upward trend (RSI>1.1×012k1.8k369
79Feb 21, '22#bitcoin 200 week moving average still increasing. Ignore volatility, focus on the trend.1.1×012k1.7k104
80Jan 20, '22nO oNe SaW iNfLaTiOn cOmInG1.1×012k1.9k93
81Aug 1, '21#bitcoin July closing price $41,490 ... it bounced from the lows, like clockwork1.1×012k1.8k98
82Feb 15, '22#bitcoin weekly RSI looking incredibly bullish🔥1.1×012k1.7k60
83Oct 12, '21If you look through #bitcoin volatility, you see 200 week moving average always going up, and BTC never closing a month below 200WMA. The trend is your friend.1.1×012k1.9k262
84Jan 28, '22As you know I track many indicators & models besides S2F: RSI, 200WMA, Realized Cap, Logarithmic Regression etc. Chart below combines S2F, log regression & RSI. #Bitcoin pr1.1×012k1.8k171
85Oct 26, '21I keep staring at this weekly chart .. if RSI goes above 70, like in 2013 and 2017 .. 👀1.1×012k1.5k203
86Sep 15, '21#bitcoin It is time1.0×012k1.5k48
87Mar 14, '22Intel embraces new technology and invested billions in proof of work mining. Meanwhile Europe wants to ban that same proof of work technology, which is just math. Europe is at peak1.0×011k1.8k54
88Oct 23, '212013 vibes🔥 - 200 week moving average up (black) - realized cap up (grey) - in ATH mode (red: distance to all time high 1)1.0×012k1.7k122
89Nov 28, '21#bitcoin has better risk-adjusted returns than all other assets1.0×012k1.5k137
90Oct 15, '21I suggest opening a bottle of your finest wine, whiskey, rum, play this song (loud!), close your eyes and just wait🚀1.0×011k1.2k163
91Jan 9, '22I know some people have lost faith in this #bitcoin bull market. However we are only halfway into the cycle (2020-2024). And although BTC experiences some turbulence at $1T, the ye1.0×011k1.5k120
92Dec 3, '21#bitcoin looking strong (RSI 68) despite macro headwind (omicron induced March 2020 flashbacks, and potential FED tapering).1.0×011k1.4k73
93Dec 5, '24Happy $100k!🥳🍾🥂1.0×457k17k1.9k306
94Oct 17, '21Casual reminder1.0×011k1.6k116
95Oct 27, '21👀 Wow this is getting crazy .. +350K followers in October? For all new followers: make sure you read my 3 articles and listen to 1 or 2 recent interviews on0.9×012k681172
96Oct 11, '21#bitcoin ATH=$58.8K (monthly close). BTC now: $56.5K🚀0.9×011k1.2k49

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